【摘要】：中國(guó)與東盟是世界上重要的農(nóng)業(yè)大國(guó),擁有相當(dāng)?shù)霓r(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)和相似的技術(shù)水平。中國(guó)與東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立,會(huì)對(duì)雙方農(nóng)業(yè)和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生較大影響。2002年中國(guó)與東盟雙方簽訂了《中國(guó)與東盟全面經(jīng)濟(jì)合作框架協(xié)議》,確定建立中國(guó)—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的目標(biāo)。2004年雙方開(kāi)始實(shí)施早期收獲計(jì)劃,以下調(diào)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品關(guān)稅為主,促進(jìn)了雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,到2006年,大部分農(nóng)產(chǎn)品實(shí)現(xiàn)零關(guān)稅,雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易額突破100億美元,2013年貿(mào)易額達(dá)到最高峰390.82億美元。雖然農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易規(guī)模在不斷擴(kuò)大,但是中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易逆差也在逐年增加,因此有必要對(duì)中國(guó)與東盟的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易發(fā)展進(jìn)行研究。本文首先對(duì)中國(guó)與東盟農(nóng)產(chǎn)品雙邊貿(mào)易狀況進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)與東盟的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易額在逐年增加。但是自2002年開(kāi)始中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的進(jìn)口增速小于出口增速,因而導(dǎo)致雙方貿(mào)易逆差在逐年擴(kuò)大,近兩年雖然出口增速大于進(jìn)口增速,但雙方的貿(mào)易逆差仍舊超過(guò)140億美元。其次本文對(duì)中國(guó)與東盟各國(guó)的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易額進(jìn)行排名,發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易額排名前三位的分別是馬來(lái)西亞、印度尼西亞和泰國(guó),這三個(gè)國(guó)家占到整個(gè)中國(guó)對(duì)東盟農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口額的77.32%。再次,本文利用貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性指數(shù)分別對(duì)中國(guó)與東盟六國(guó)的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品整體貿(mào)易和細(xì)分產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易進(jìn)行互補(bǔ)性研究,結(jié)果顯示馬來(lái)西亞和越南對(duì)中國(guó)的貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性很強(qiáng)而中國(guó)對(duì)這兩個(gè)國(guó)家貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性較弱;印度尼西亞與泰國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性都很強(qiáng)。為了更詳細(xì)的分析中國(guó)與東盟之間農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性,本文分別對(duì)馬來(lái)西亞、印度尼西亞農(nóng)產(chǎn)品三位編碼貿(mào)易額和泰國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品三位、四位編碼貿(mào)易額進(jìn)行細(xì)分研究,結(jié)果表明,由于中國(guó)與東盟在地理位置、要素稟賦和市場(chǎng)需求等方面的差異,使得雙方在農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易方面具有較強(qiáng)的貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性。最后,為了更好的促進(jìn)中國(guó)與東盟農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,本文提出我國(guó)應(yīng)該對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行深加工提高附加值,調(diào)整對(duì)東盟市場(chǎng)的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的出口結(jié)構(gòu),加快建立我國(guó)與東盟的多元化農(nóng)業(yè)合作模式等建議。
[Abstract]:China and ASEAN are important agricultural countries in the world. The establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area will have a great impact on both agriculture and agricultural production. In 2002, China and ASEAN signed the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN. In 2004, the two sides began to implement an early harvest plan to reduce tariffs on agricultural products, which promoted the development of bilateral agricultural trade. By 2006, most agricultural products had achieved zero tariffs. Bilateral agricultural trade exceeded US $10 billion and reached a peak of US $39.082 billion in 2013. Although the scale of agricultural trade is expanding, the agricultural trade deficit between China and ASEAN is increasing year by year, so it is necessary to study the development of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN. This paper first analyzes the bilateral trade of agricultural products between China and ASEAN, and finds that the volume of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN is increasing year by year. But since 2002, China's imports to ASEAN have been growing at a slower rate than exports, which has led to a trade deficit of more than $14 billion in the past two years, although exports have grown faster than imports in the past two years. Secondly, this paper ranks the trade volume of agricultural products between China and ASEAN countries. It is found that Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are the top three in the trade volume. The three countries account for 77.32 percent of China's agricultural exports to ASEAN. Thirdly, using the trade complementarity index, this paper makes a complementary study on the overall trade of agricultural products and the subdivision trade of agricultural products between China and the six ASEAN countries. The results show that Malaysia and Vietnam are highly complementary to China, while China is less complementary to these two countries. Indonesia and Thailand are highly complementary to China's agricultural trade. In order to analyze the complementarities of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN in detail, this paper subdivides the agricultural product trade volume of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand respectively. Due to the differences between China and ASEAN in geographical location, factor endowment and market demand, there is a strong trade complementarity between China and ASEAN in the trade of agricultural products. Finally, in order to better promote the development of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN, this paper proposes that China should further process agricultural products and increase the added value, and adjust the export structure of agricultural products to ASEAN market. We should speed up the establishment of a diversified agricultural cooperation model between China and ASEAN.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F753.3;F323.7

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