中國貿(mào)易結構變化成因及趨勢研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-18 07:07
【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟飛速發(fā)展,尤其是我國的對外貿(mào)易,實現(xiàn)了驚人的飛躍,我國的外貿(mào)額在2013年已躍居國際首位,已是一個完全的貿(mào)易大國；我國的工業(yè)制成品的比重,多年前就已遠遠超過了初級產(chǎn)品,且我國工業(yè)制成品與初級產(chǎn)品出口額之比非常高,達到19：1,而發(fā)達國家該比例才80：20；1995年以來,我國一直穩(wěn)定保持資本密集型產(chǎn)品輸出為主的貿(mào)易結構,其出口額始終超過另一種產(chǎn)品,即勞動密集型產(chǎn)品：而高新技術產(chǎn)品進出口之迅速擴張更是中國的技術進步水平提高的證明,同時說明了中國外貿(mào)提升之良好勢頭。對外貿(mào)易是一個國家經(jīng)濟增長之有力支撐點,而其結構的變化作用于我國之經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之影響力更是舉足輕重,它是我國外貿(mào)之框架,它發(fā)生變動,既會影響其自身的運行,也關系到我國整體經(jīng)濟情況。因此,在我國的對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展如此快速的今天,了解影響貿(mào)易結構的相關要素就顯得特別重要,本文選取人民幣匯率、出口退稅和技術進步三個重要的影響要素,從國際貿(mào)易理論出發(fā),運用舉例分析法、理論研究輔以圖表研究法、以及理論聯(lián)系實際法,采用1993年-2014年的相關數(shù)據(jù),做了上述三個要素作用于貿(mào)易結構之效應分析,并且做了其發(fā)展趨勢分析,得出：人民幣匯率貶值將顯著有益于我國產(chǎn)品輸出,提升輸出額,增速提高,于進口之效應不顯著；出口退稅能有效刺激出口貿(mào)易,促進進出口貿(mào)易發(fā)展,增大出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模,能優(yōu)化貿(mào)易結構,提高貿(mào)易順差；技術進步有益于優(yōu)化外貿(mào)結構,其中技術引進產(chǎn)生之效應不顯著,而技術擴散和技術創(chuàng)新則與我國工業(yè)制成品輸出比例顯著相關,總體來看對我國的貿(mào)易結構有顯著優(yōu)化作用的結論。因此,本論題最后再提出幾條簡單的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially China's foreign trade, which has achieved an astonishing leap. China's foreign trade volume has leapt to the first place in the world in 2013, and it has become a completely trading country. Many years ago, it was well ahead of primary products, and the ratio of manufactured goods to primary exports in China was very high, reaching 19: 1, compared with 80 to 20 in developed countries; since 1995, China has been steadily maintaining a trade structure dominated by the export of capital-intensive products, and its export volume has always exceeded that of another product. That is, labor-intensive products: the rapid expansion of high-tech products import and export is a proof of the improvement of China's technological progress, and also shows the good momentum of China's foreign trade promotion. Foreign trade is the supporting point of a country's economic growth, and its structural changes play an important role in the economic development of our country. It is the framework of China's foreign trade, and its changes will affect its own operation. Also related to the overall economic situation of our country. Therefore, with the rapid development of China's foreign trade today, it is particularly important to understand the relevant factors affecting the trade structure. This paper selects three important factors, namely, RMB exchange rate, export tax rebate and technological progress. Based on the theory of international trade, this paper analyzes the effects of the above three factors on the trade structure by using the analysis of examples, the theoretical research supplemented by the method of chart research and the method of combining theory with practice, and using the relevant data from 1993 to 2014. By analyzing its development trend, it is concluded that RMB exchange rate depreciation will significantly benefit the export of our products, increase the export volume, increase the growth rate, and have no significant effect on imports, and that export tax rebates can effectively stimulate export trade. Promoting the development of import and export trade and increasing the scale of export trade can optimize the trade structure and increase the trade surplus. Technology diffusion and technological innovation are significantly related to the export ratio of manufactured goods in China, and the conclusion is that it has a significant effect on the optimization of China's trade structure. Therefore, this thesis finally puts forward several simple policy suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：云南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.6
本文編號：2247159
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially China's foreign trade, which has achieved an astonishing leap. China's foreign trade volume has leapt to the first place in the world in 2013, and it has become a completely trading country. Many years ago, it was well ahead of primary products, and the ratio of manufactured goods to primary exports in China was very high, reaching 19: 1, compared with 80 to 20 in developed countries; since 1995, China has been steadily maintaining a trade structure dominated by the export of capital-intensive products, and its export volume has always exceeded that of another product. That is, labor-intensive products: the rapid expansion of high-tech products import and export is a proof of the improvement of China's technological progress, and also shows the good momentum of China's foreign trade promotion. Foreign trade is the supporting point of a country's economic growth, and its structural changes play an important role in the economic development of our country. It is the framework of China's foreign trade, and its changes will affect its own operation. Also related to the overall economic situation of our country. Therefore, with the rapid development of China's foreign trade today, it is particularly important to understand the relevant factors affecting the trade structure. This paper selects three important factors, namely, RMB exchange rate, export tax rebate and technological progress. Based on the theory of international trade, this paper analyzes the effects of the above three factors on the trade structure by using the analysis of examples, the theoretical research supplemented by the method of chart research and the method of combining theory with practice, and using the relevant data from 1993 to 2014. By analyzing its development trend, it is concluded that RMB exchange rate depreciation will significantly benefit the export of our products, increase the export volume, increase the growth rate, and have no significant effect on imports, and that export tax rebates can effectively stimulate export trade. Promoting the development of import and export trade and increasing the scale of export trade can optimize the trade structure and increase the trade surplus. Technology diffusion and technological innovation are significantly related to the export ratio of manufactured goods in China, and the conclusion is that it has a significant effect on the optimization of China's trade structure. Therefore, this thesis finally puts forward several simple policy suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：云南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.6
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，本文編號：2247159
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