我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融上市公司信用評價研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-18 07:13
【摘要】：自進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信息技術(shù)被廣泛應(yīng)用于各行各業(yè),大大提升了人們的工作效率,降低了工作強(qiáng)度。其中,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)與傳統(tǒng)金融相結(jié)合催生的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融,以發(fā)展較為健全的第三方支付、P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸和眾籌融資作為三大主流業(yè)務(wù)模式,憑借對計(jì)算機(jī)信息技術(shù)的熟練運(yùn)用,快速完成信息的采集、分類和反饋處理,降低了部分交易成本和開設(shè)營業(yè)網(wǎng)點(diǎn)的實(shí)際運(yùn)營成本;專業(yè)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺使資金供求雙方能夠迅速完成匹配、議價和交易,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的操作流程也有利于提高業(yè)務(wù)完成的效率,推動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。眾多第三方支付平臺和個人融資平臺聚集了大量的消費(fèi)支付資金和社會閑散資金,一旦平臺信用坍塌,將會產(chǎn)生很多的不安全因素,危及到各方利益。為此,對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司的信用進(jìn)行評價,便于投資者進(jìn)行投資選擇,涉及到廣大投資者的切身利益,也深切影響著社會資金的安全。本文的理論分析主要包括兩個部分。第一個部分為國內(nèi)外研究綜述,從互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融和企業(yè)信用評價兩個角度對國內(nèi)外已有研究進(jìn)行梳理、總結(jié)和評價。其中,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的研究主要圍繞其概念與模式、對傳統(tǒng)金融的影響、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與監(jiān)管及未來發(fā)展四個方面展開;企業(yè)信用評價則主要包括評價方法和評價指標(biāo)的建立兩個方面。第二個部分為我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的特點(diǎn)、發(fā)展歷程和主要運(yùn)作模式分析,筆者通過對我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析,歸納總結(jié)為三個重要階段,分別為:興起階段、快速擴(kuò)張階段和理性發(fā)展階段,在此基礎(chǔ)上闡述了第三方支付、P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸和眾籌融資三大主流業(yè)務(wù)模式的發(fā)展、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和監(jiān)管情況等。論文以我國滬深股票市場上的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融上市公司為研究對象,以2013年至2015年共142組數(shù)據(jù)為研究樣本,選取財(cái)務(wù)與非財(cái)務(wù)評價指標(biāo)作為原始變量,利用因子分析方法提取出八個主成分因子,分別代表我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司的營運(yùn)能力、償債能力、盈利能力、發(fā)展能力、股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)、企業(yè)影響力、董事會結(jié)構(gòu)和管理者素質(zhì);在此基礎(chǔ)上,將提取出的八個主成分因子作為新的解釋變量納入Logistic回歸方程,得出了適應(yīng)我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司的信用評價模型;最后將實(shí)際樣本數(shù)據(jù)代入信用評價模型,將計(jì)算得到的概率值與預(yù)測值相比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)模型對總體樣本的判斷準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到了95.1%,說明本文構(gòu)建的信用評價模型對我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融上市公司的信用狀況具有良好的預(yù)測效果。本文研究結(jié)論有:(1)通過因子分析法提取的八個主成分因子最終都留在了回歸模型當(dāng)中,且根據(jù)回歸系數(shù)的正負(fù)發(fā)現(xiàn)這八個主成分因子與我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司的信用為正相關(guān)關(guān)系;(2)所有財(cái)務(wù)類主成分因子對我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司的影響程度均大于非財(cái)務(wù)類指標(biāo)的主成分因子,其中,財(cái)務(wù)類指標(biāo)的主成分因子按回歸系數(shù)的大小排序依次為盈利能力、發(fā)展能力、償債能力和營運(yùn)能力,非財(cái)務(wù)類指標(biāo)的主成分因子對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司信用影響大小排序?yàn)?管理者素質(zhì)、股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)、企業(yè)自身素質(zhì)和董事會結(jié)構(gòu)因素;(3)在所有的主成分因子中,盈利能力和發(fā)展能力的回歸系數(shù)遠(yuǎn)高于其他因子,對我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融公司信用的影響程度最深。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, Internet information technology has been widely used in all walks of life, greatly improving people's work efficiency and reducing the intensity of work. With the skilled use of computer information technology, we can collect, classify and feedback information quickly, reduce some transaction costs and the actual operating costs of opening business outlets; professional network platform enables both the supply and demand of funds to quickly complete matching, bargaining and trading, standardized operating procedures are also conducive to improving the industry. Many third-party payment platforms and personal financing platforms have accumulated a large number of consumer payment funds and social idle funds. Once the platform credit collapses, there will be a lot of unsafe factors, endangering the interests of all parties. Price, which is convenient for investors to make investment choices, involves the vital interests of investors and deeply affects the security of social funds. The theoretical analysis of this paper mainly includes two parts. The first part is the research summary at home and abroad, which combs and summarizes the existing research at home and abroad from the perspective of Internet finance and enterprise credit evaluation. Among them, the study of Internet finance mainly focuses on its concepts and modes, its impact on traditional finance, risk and supervision, and its future development; enterprise credit evaluation mainly includes two aspects: evaluation methods and the establishment of evaluation indicators. The second part is the characteristics, development process and main aspects of China's Internet finance. Based on the analysis of the operation mode, the author summarizes the development of Internet finance in China into three important stages: the rising stage, the rapid expansion stage and the rational development stage. On this basis, the author expounds the development, risk and supervision of the three main business modes: third-party payment, P2P network lending and crowd financing. Based on 142 sets of data from 2013 to 2015, this paper selects financial and non-financial evaluation indicators as the original variables and extracts eight principal component factors by factor analysis to represent the operation of China's Internet financial companies. On this basis, eight principal component factors are put into Logistic regression equation as new explanatory variables, and a credit evaluation model adapted to China's Internet financial companies is obtained. Finally, the actual sample is given. This data is substituted into the credit evaluation model. Comparing the calculated probability value with the predicted value, it is found that the accuracy rate of the model is 95.1% for the overall sample. This shows that the credit evaluation model constructed in this paper has a good prediction effect on the credit status of China's Internet financial listed companies. The eight principal component factors extracted by the analysis method are finally left in the regression model, and according to the positive and negative regression coefficients found that these eight principal component factors and the credit of China's Internet financial companies are positively correlated; (2) All the financial principal component factors of China's Internet financial companies are greater than the impact of non-financial indicators. Among them, the principal component factors of financial indicators are profitability, development ability, solvency and operation ability, and the principal component factors of non-financial indicators are ranked as follows: managerial quality, ownership structure, enterprise quality and board of directors. Structural factors; (3) Among all the principal components, the regression coefficients of profitability and development ability are much higher than other factors, which have the deepest impact on the credit of China's Internet financial companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F724.6;F832
本文編號：2247174
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, Internet information technology has been widely used in all walks of life, greatly improving people's work efficiency and reducing the intensity of work. With the skilled use of computer information technology, we can collect, classify and feedback information quickly, reduce some transaction costs and the actual operating costs of opening business outlets; professional network platform enables both the supply and demand of funds to quickly complete matching, bargaining and trading, standardized operating procedures are also conducive to improving the industry. Many third-party payment platforms and personal financing platforms have accumulated a large number of consumer payment funds and social idle funds. Once the platform credit collapses, there will be a lot of unsafe factors, endangering the interests of all parties. Price, which is convenient for investors to make investment choices, involves the vital interests of investors and deeply affects the security of social funds. The theoretical analysis of this paper mainly includes two parts. The first part is the research summary at home and abroad, which combs and summarizes the existing research at home and abroad from the perspective of Internet finance and enterprise credit evaluation. Among them, the study of Internet finance mainly focuses on its concepts and modes, its impact on traditional finance, risk and supervision, and its future development; enterprise credit evaluation mainly includes two aspects: evaluation methods and the establishment of evaluation indicators. The second part is the characteristics, development process and main aspects of China's Internet finance. Based on the analysis of the operation mode, the author summarizes the development of Internet finance in China into three important stages: the rising stage, the rapid expansion stage and the rational development stage. On this basis, the author expounds the development, risk and supervision of the three main business modes: third-party payment, P2P network lending and crowd financing. Based on 142 sets of data from 2013 to 2015, this paper selects financial and non-financial evaluation indicators as the original variables and extracts eight principal component factors by factor analysis to represent the operation of China's Internet financial companies. On this basis, eight principal component factors are put into Logistic regression equation as new explanatory variables, and a credit evaluation model adapted to China's Internet financial companies is obtained. Finally, the actual sample is given. This data is substituted into the credit evaluation model. Comparing the calculated probability value with the predicted value, it is found that the accuracy rate of the model is 95.1% for the overall sample. This shows that the credit evaluation model constructed in this paper has a good prediction effect on the credit status of China's Internet financial listed companies. The eight principal component factors extracted by the analysis method are finally left in the regression model, and according to the positive and negative regression coefficients found that these eight principal component factors and the credit of China's Internet financial companies are positively correlated; (2) All the financial principal component factors of China's Internet financial companies are greater than the impact of non-financial indicators. Among them, the principal component factors of financial indicators are profitability, development ability, solvency and operation ability, and the principal component factors of non-financial indicators are ranked as follows: managerial quality, ownership structure, enterprise quality and board of directors. Structural factors; (3) Among all the principal components, the regression coefficients of profitability and development ability are much higher than other factors, which have the deepest impact on the credit of China's Internet financial companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F724.6;F832
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