【摘要】：隨著中國已經(jīng)成為美國進口商品的主要來源國,兩國間貿(mào)易摩擦此起彼伏,美國針對我國的反傾銷調(diào)查一直沒有中斷過。如今全球貿(mào)易自由化的推進,美國鋼鐵制造業(yè)改變了單純依賴關稅保護模式,轉(zhuǎn)而尋求反傾銷干預進口競爭,中國鋼鐵類制成品進入美國市場常常成為其主要的反傾銷對象。本文在分析美國針對進口中國鋼鐵類制品HS73反傾銷案例的基礎上,使用Prusa模型回歸估計了美國反傾銷對中國鋼鐵類制成品進口值、價格、數(shù)量的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)反傾銷中的中國商品遭受兩個不同的后果,一是完全退出市場,二是繼續(xù)增加對美國的出口。經(jīng)過分離出那些被反傾銷行為迫離市場的商品,進一步運用Armington模型回歸分析了美國進口中國商品與其他樣本國商品之間的互動關系,發(fā)現(xiàn)如果中國商品被反傾銷迫退市場,那么美國就會貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移增加加拿大、墨西哥、以及我國臺灣地區(qū)的同類商品進口進行替代。本文的內(nèi)容結(jié)構(gòu)大致分為五部分:第一章,概括問題研究背景和意義;第二章,將就傾銷與反傾銷的進行理論界定,并就貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移現(xiàn)象進行表述,從而做好分析框架的理論鋪墊;第三章中將,給出選取的Prusa和Armington模型理由;第四章進行實證分析,運用Prusa的模型回歸估計解釋樣本與被解釋樣本之間的關系,邏輯地引致使用Armington的模型進一步估計出反傾銷所導致的貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應程度。第五章的結(jié)論部分,就我國今后對美鋼鐵類制品出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展以及應對美方貿(mào)易政策干預提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:As China has become the main source of American imports and trade frictions between the two countries have been incessant, the U.S. anti-dumping investigation against China has not been interrupted. With the development of global trade liberalization, American iron and steel manufacturing industry has changed its mode of relying solely on tariff protection and turned to seek anti-dumping to intervene in import competition. Chinese steel manufactures entering the United States market are often the main antidumping objects. Based on the analysis of HS73 anti-dumping cases of Chinese steel products imported by the United States, this paper estimates the value, price and quantity of imports of Chinese steel manufactured goods by Prusa model regression. It is found that Chinese goods in anti-dumping suffer two different consequences, one is to withdraw completely from the market, the other is to continue to increase exports to the United States. After separating the goods forced out of the market by anti-dumping actions, we further use the Armington model to analyze the interaction between American imports of Chinese goods and other sample countries, and find that if Chinese goods are forced out of the market by anti-dumping, Then the United States will shift trade to increase imports of similar goods from Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan. The content structure of this paper is divided into five parts: the first chapter, the background and significance of the research, the second chapter, the theoretical definition of dumping and anti-dumping, and the expression of the phenomenon of trade transfer. In the third chapter, the reasons of choosing Prusa and Armington models are given. In chapter 4, the empirical analysis is carried out, and the relationship between the sample and the explained sample is estimated by using the model regression of Prusa. The model that logically leads to the use of Armington further estimates the extent of trade transfer effects caused by anti-dumping. In the fifth chapter, the author puts forward some policy suggestions on the development of China's export trade in steel products to the United States in the future and the intervention of American trade policy.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F416.31;F757.12

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本文編號：2166015