貴州出口產(chǎn)品部門碳排放的關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-15 22:42
【摘要】：據(jù)全球碳預(yù)算2016年報告顯示,目前全球范圍內(nèi)CO_2排放總量迅速增加,由1978年的193.22億噸增加到2015年363億噸(1)�！皯�(yīng)對氣候變化,實現(xiàn)低碳循環(huán)發(fā)展”正在逐漸成為當(dāng)今世界發(fā)展的主題。據(jù)統(tǒng)計,中國2014年的CO_2排放總量已經(jīng)高達97.61億噸,成為全球溫室氣體排放最大的國家之一。碳排放量的高速增長讓全球目光不約而同地鎖定中國,中國面臨的減排壓力與日俱增。聚焦貴州,作為當(dāng)前我國重要能源基地,本省煤炭產(chǎn)量豐富,但是長期以來形成的粗放生產(chǎn)方式,導(dǎo)致單位產(chǎn)品的能源消耗強度及污染排放量相對較嚴重�；诖�,本文試圖選取西部的貴州、中部的河南、東部的山東,運用Matlab R2016b軟件與投入產(chǎn)出模型相結(jié)合的方式,基于其各自最新的2012年投入產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)以及能源消耗數(shù)據(jù),從產(chǎn)業(yè)和貿(mào)易融合的視角,利用產(chǎn)品部門影響力和感應(yīng)度系數(shù)分析法,最終構(gòu)建出出口產(chǎn)品部門隱含碳排放模型及關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)指標(biāo)模型。期望通過三個省份的橫向?qū)Ρ?探尋其異同,最終為貴州通過出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整來降低碳排放提供一些數(shù)據(jù)支撐及政策建議。通過本文實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn):1.碳排放強度方面。(1)綜合考慮出口總產(chǎn)值之后,通過計算單位產(chǎn)值平均直接和隱含碳排放強度,發(fā)現(xiàn)貴州無論是2.4551噸/萬元的平均直接碳排放強度還是5.7094噸/萬元的平均隱含碳排放強度的排名均位居三個省份之首;(2)三個省份中不管是直接碳排放量,還是隱含碳排放的比重,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)都是最大的,并且和第一、三產(chǎn)業(yè)相差十分懸殊。貴州更甚,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的直接和隱含碳排放占比都超過了99%。2.影響力系數(shù)方面。(1)出口產(chǎn)品部門影響力系數(shù)方面,貴州相較于其他兩個省份,系數(shù)大于1的部門有15個,主要集中于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)中的制造業(yè),電氣、機械及器材制造業(yè),交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè),燃氣生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)分別占據(jù)影響力前三名;(2)出口產(chǎn)品部門隱含碳排放影響力系數(shù)方面,貴州相較于其他兩個省份,系數(shù)大于1的部門為10個,也全部集中在第二產(chǎn)業(yè)。非金屬制品業(yè),石油加工及核燃料加工業(yè),化學(xué)工業(yè)隱含碳排放影響力系數(shù)高居前三位。3.感應(yīng)度系數(shù)方面。(1)出口產(chǎn)品部門感應(yīng)度系數(shù)方面,貴州相較于其他兩個省份,系數(shù)大于1的部門的個數(shù)為9個,均屬于第二產(chǎn)業(yè),排名前三的分別為:紡織業(yè),其他制造業(yè),金屬礦采選業(yè);(2)出口產(chǎn)品部門碳排放感應(yīng)度系數(shù)方面,貴州相較于其他兩個省份,系數(shù)大于1的產(chǎn)品部門的個數(shù)有7個,均為第二產(chǎn)業(yè),排名前三的分別為:其他制造業(yè),紡織業(yè),金屬礦采選業(yè)�；谏鲜鰧嵶C事實,貴州若想在貿(mào)易開放條件下尋求一條低碳發(fā)展道路,可以基于各出口部門的碳排放關(guān)聯(lián)度水平,主要從合理調(diào)整出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)、注重經(jīng)濟政策和產(chǎn)業(yè)政策有機結(jié)合、加強出口企業(yè)低碳管理、培育貿(mào)易競爭新優(yōu)勢等方面著手。
[Abstract]:According to the 2016 Global carbon Budget report, total CO2 emissions are increasing rapidly worldwide, from 19.322 billion tonnes in 1978 to 36.3 billion tonnes (1) in 2015. To deal with climate change and realize low-carbon cycle development "is gradually becoming the theme of world development." According to statistics, China's total CO2 emissions reached 9.761 billion tons in 2014, making it one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the world. The rapid growth of carbon emissions has set the world's sights on China, which is under increasing pressure to reduce emissions. As an important energy base in China, Guizhou province is rich in coal production, but the extensive production mode has been formed for a long time, which leads to the relatively serious energy consumption intensity and pollution emissions per unit product. Based on this, this paper tries to select Guizhou in the west, Henan in the middle and Shandong in the east, and combine Matlab R2016b software with input-output model, based on their latest input-output data in 2012 and energy consumption data. From the perspective of industry and trade integration, the implied carbon emission model and the correlation coefficient index model of export product sector are constructed by using the method of product sector influence and sensitivity coefficient analysis. It is expected that through the horizontal comparison of the three provinces the similarities and differences will be explored and finally some data support and policy suggestions will be provided for Guizhou to reduce its carbon emissions through the restructuring of export products. Through this empirical study, we find that: 1. In terms of carbon emission intensity. (1) after considering the total export value, the average direct and implied carbon emission intensity per unit of output value is calculated. It is found that Guizhou ranks first among the three provinces in terms of the average direct carbon emission intensity of 2.4551 tons / 10,000 yuan or the average implied carbon emission intensity of 5.7094 tons / 10,000 yuan. (2) No matter direct carbon emissions in the three provinces, Or the proportion of implied carbon emissions, the second industry is the largest, and the first and third industries are very different. Even more, the share of direct and implied carbon emissions in the secondary sector is more than 99. 2. (1) in terms of the impact coefficient of the export products sector, there are 15 sectors with a coefficient greater than 1 in Guizhou compared to the other two provinces, mainly concentrated in the manufacturing, electrical, mechanical and equipment manufacturing industries in the secondary industry. Transportation equipment manufacturing industry, gas production and supply industry respectively occupy the top three influential factors. (2) in terms of implied carbon emission impact coefficient in export products sector, Guizhou has 10 sectors with a coefficient greater than 1 compared with the other two provinces. All are also concentrated in the secondary industry. Non-metallic products industry, petroleum processing and nuclear fuel processing industry, chemical industry implied carbon emissions impact coefficient in the top three. 3. In terms of sensitivity coefficient. (1) in terms of sensitivity coefficient of export products sector, compared with the other two provinces, the number of departments with coefficients greater than 1 in Guizhou is 9, all of them belong to the secondary industry, the top three are respectively: textile industry, other manufacturing industries, (2) compared with the other two provinces, Guizhou has seven product sectors with a coefficient greater than 1, all of which are secondary industries, the top three of which are: other manufacturing industries. Textile industry, metal ore mining and separation industry. Based on the above empirical facts, if Guizhou wants to seek a low-carbon development road under the condition of open trade, it can adjust the structure of export products mainly from the level of carbon emission correlation of various export sectors. Pay attention to the organic combination of economic policy and industrial policy, strengthen low carbon management of export enterprises, cultivate new competitive advantage of trade and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X22;F752.62
[Abstract]:According to the 2016 Global carbon Budget report, total CO2 emissions are increasing rapidly worldwide, from 19.322 billion tonnes in 1978 to 36.3 billion tonnes (1) in 2015. To deal with climate change and realize low-carbon cycle development "is gradually becoming the theme of world development." According to statistics, China's total CO2 emissions reached 9.761 billion tons in 2014, making it one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the world. The rapid growth of carbon emissions has set the world's sights on China, which is under increasing pressure to reduce emissions. As an important energy base in China, Guizhou province is rich in coal production, but the extensive production mode has been formed for a long time, which leads to the relatively serious energy consumption intensity and pollution emissions per unit product. Based on this, this paper tries to select Guizhou in the west, Henan in the middle and Shandong in the east, and combine Matlab R2016b software with input-output model, based on their latest input-output data in 2012 and energy consumption data. From the perspective of industry and trade integration, the implied carbon emission model and the correlation coefficient index model of export product sector are constructed by using the method of product sector influence and sensitivity coefficient analysis. It is expected that through the horizontal comparison of the three provinces the similarities and differences will be explored and finally some data support and policy suggestions will be provided for Guizhou to reduce its carbon emissions through the restructuring of export products. Through this empirical study, we find that: 1. In terms of carbon emission intensity. (1) after considering the total export value, the average direct and implied carbon emission intensity per unit of output value is calculated. It is found that Guizhou ranks first among the three provinces in terms of the average direct carbon emission intensity of 2.4551 tons / 10,000 yuan or the average implied carbon emission intensity of 5.7094 tons / 10,000 yuan. (2) No matter direct carbon emissions in the three provinces, Or the proportion of implied carbon emissions, the second industry is the largest, and the first and third industries are very different. Even more, the share of direct and implied carbon emissions in the secondary sector is more than 99. 2. (1) in terms of the impact coefficient of the export products sector, there are 15 sectors with a coefficient greater than 1 in Guizhou compared to the other two provinces, mainly concentrated in the manufacturing, electrical, mechanical and equipment manufacturing industries in the secondary industry. Transportation equipment manufacturing industry, gas production and supply industry respectively occupy the top three influential factors. (2) in terms of implied carbon emission impact coefficient in export products sector, Guizhou has 10 sectors with a coefficient greater than 1 compared with the other two provinces. All are also concentrated in the secondary industry. Non-metallic products industry, petroleum processing and nuclear fuel processing industry, chemical industry implied carbon emissions impact coefficient in the top three. 3. In terms of sensitivity coefficient. (1) in terms of sensitivity coefficient of export products sector, compared with the other two provinces, the number of departments with coefficients greater than 1 in Guizhou is 9, all of them belong to the secondary industry, the top three are respectively: textile industry, other manufacturing industries, (2) compared with the other two provinces, Guizhou has seven product sectors with a coefficient greater than 1, all of which are secondary industries, the top three of which are: other manufacturing industries. Textile industry, metal ore mining and separation industry. Based on the above empirical facts, if Guizhou wants to seek a low-carbon development road under the condition of open trade, it can adjust the structure of export products mainly from the level of carbon emission correlation of various export sectors. Pay attention to the organic combination of economic policy and industrial policy, strengthen low carbon management of export enterprises, cultivate new competitive advantage of trade and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X22;F752.62
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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 顧阿倫;呂志強;;經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)變動對中國碳排放影響——基于IO-SDA方法的分析[J];中國人口·資源與環(huán)境;2016年03期
2 馬曉微;葉奕;杜佳;李晗{，
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