本文選題：TPP + 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化�。� 參考：《山東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：TPP最初只有新西蘭、智利、文萊、新加坡四個(gè)初始成員國(guó),自2009年11月美國(guó)宣布正式加入TPP談判后,直接提高了TPP在亞太地區(qū)的影響力,也激發(fā)了其他國(guó)家參與TPP談判的興趣。隨后,澳大利亞、馬來(lái)西亞、日本等國(guó)相繼加入TPP談判,從而使TPP成員國(guó)迅速擴(kuò)展至12國(guó)。2015年10月5日,在美國(guó)亞特蘭大舉行的TPP成員國(guó)部長(zhǎng)級(jí)會(huì)議上,美、日、加、新等12國(guó)就TPP貿(mào)易協(xié)定基本達(dá)成一致,各國(guó)同意逐步進(jìn)行自由貿(mào)易。緊接著,在2016年2月4日的新西蘭奧克蘭市,12成員國(guó)經(jīng)貿(mào)部長(zhǎng)正式簽署了TPP協(xié)定。然而,離簽署還不到一年,TPP的命運(yùn)就因美國(guó)新任總統(tǒng)的產(chǎn)生迎來(lái)了巨大變化。2017年1月,特朗普上臺(tái)后簽署了總統(tǒng)行政命令宣布退出TPP,這使得TPP將面臨更多不確定性。目前情況下,TPP在亞太地區(qū)甚有影響,其不確定性因素也會(huì)對(duì)亞太地區(qū)的貿(mào)易發(fā)展以及我國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易形成了巨大挑戰(zhàn),而且對(duì)我國(guó)而言,對(duì)外貿(mào)易一直是促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要引擎之一,而亞太地區(qū)在我國(guó)的對(duì)外經(jīng)貿(mào)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中又至關(guān)重要,因此,加強(qiáng)對(duì)TPP未來(lái)走向及其可能對(duì)中國(guó)造成潛在影響的研究具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文共分為七部分。第一部分主要闡述本文的研究背景與意義、國(guó)內(nèi)外研究文獻(xiàn)綜述、研究框架和方法以及本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。第二部分分析了TPP的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)和主要特點(diǎn),并重點(diǎn)對(duì)TPP的未來(lái)發(fā)展前景進(jìn)行了分析。第三部分析了我國(guó)與TPP成員國(guó)的貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀,主要從我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和我國(guó)與TPP成員國(guó)的貿(mào)易狀況進(jìn)行分析。第四部分著重分析美國(guó)在TPP原有框架內(nèi)對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的潛在影響,主要是從相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)出口、亞太地區(qū)貿(mào)易活動(dòng)空間、對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展空間、對(duì)外貿(mào)易水平提升四個(gè)方面進(jìn)行深層次闡述。第五部分析TPP擱淺對(duì)于我國(guó)外貿(mào)的潛在影響。第六部分為我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)TPP的具體措施,針對(duì)TPP未來(lái)不同發(fā)展前景分別提出了應(yīng)對(duì)措施。第七部分為結(jié)論展望,在對(duì)全文進(jìn)行總結(jié)的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行展望。通過(guò)研究分析,TPP未來(lái)的命運(yùn)主要面臨兩種情景。其一,TPP維持原有框架,美國(guó)并非真正退出TPP,只是意圖將其暫時(shí)擱置,TPP未來(lái)大有可能重啟談判并達(dá)成共識(shí)。所以在這種情況下進(jìn)行影響分析時(shí),仍把美國(guó)視為T(mén)PP框架內(nèi),并進(jìn)行重點(diǎn)分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,TPP作為一個(gè)以美國(guó)為首的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家聯(lián)合部分發(fā)展中國(guó)家基于經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)機(jī)、政治動(dòng)機(jī)等多方面考慮的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化自貿(mào)協(xié)定,一旦其未來(lái)生效實(shí)施,將會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易造成不利影響,對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品、初級(jí)產(chǎn)品、化學(xué)品以及機(jī)械運(yùn)輸?shù)缺容^優(yōu)勢(shì)較小的產(chǎn)業(yè)會(huì)造成較大沖擊,同時(shí)使我國(guó)自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)和“一帶一路”建設(shè)面臨更多不確定性,而且TPP標(biāo)準(zhǔn)一旦成為國(guó)際通用的貿(mào)易標(biāo)準(zhǔn),那么我國(guó)將面臨更嚴(yán)峻的貿(mào)易形勢(shì)。當(dāng)然,TPP雖然會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易造成不利影響,但一定程度上對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展也存在積極影響,在一定程度上有利于提升我國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展水平。對(duì)于潛在不利影響,中國(guó)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施主要有三方面:第一,中國(guó)應(yīng)不斷加強(qiáng)出口產(chǎn)品的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),只有這樣才能不斷強(qiáng)化對(duì)其他國(guó)家的比較優(yōu)勢(shì);第二,積極推進(jìn)自貿(mào)區(qū)網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè)和實(shí)施“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略,強(qiáng)化中國(guó)與固有自貿(mào)區(qū)伙伴的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作;第三,著力構(gòu)建內(nèi)需拉動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式,只有這樣才能盡快擺脫我國(guó)過(guò)度依賴外部市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展弊端。其二,若美國(guó)完全放棄TPP,使得TPP進(jìn)入后美國(guó)時(shí)代,由于TPP“群龍無(wú)首”,TPP即將擱淺。在此基礎(chǔ)上,TPP擱淺對(duì)我國(guó)的影響是利大于弊。積極影響是:我國(guó)面臨的經(jīng)貿(mào)壓力將顯著減輕,同時(shí)有助于我國(guó)加快推進(jìn)RECP和“一帶一路”建設(shè)。消極影響在于TPP擱淺增加了我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)非確定性全球貿(mào)易形勢(shì)的難度,對(duì)此,中國(guó)需要做的就是等待時(shí)機(jī),對(duì)外密切關(guān)注TPP動(dòng)向,對(duì)“內(nèi)精耕細(xì)作”,不斷深化國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革,在適當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)機(jī)可以選擇加入TPP談判。
[Abstract]:TPP was initially only New Zealand, Chile, Brunei, and Singapore's four initial member countries. Since the United States announced the formal accession to the TPP negotiations in November 2009, it directly raised the influence of TPP in the Asia Pacific region and stimulated the interest of other countries to participate in the TPP negotiations. Subsequently, Australia, Malaysia, Japan and other countries joined in the TPP negotiations, thus making TPP a result. The country rapidly expanded to 12 countries in October 5th.2015. At the ministerial meeting of the TPP Member States held in Atlanta, the United States, the United States, Japan, Canada, and the new 12 countries agreed on the TPP trade agreement, and the countries agreed to carry out the free trade. Then, in February 4, 2016, the new West Lan City of New Zealand, the 12 members of the economy and trade ministers signed the TPP Association. However, less than a year after the signing of the TPP, the fate of the new president of the United States came to a great change in the January.2017 year. Trump signed a presidential executive order to announce the withdrawal of TPP, which made TPP face more uncertainty. In the present case, TPP has a great impact on the Asia Pacific region and its uncertainties will also be on the Asia Pacific region. The development of trade in the region and the foreign trade of our country have formed a great challenge, and for our country, foreign trade has been one of the most important engines to promote the economic growth of our country, and the Asia Pacific region is very important in our foreign economic and trade network. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the research on the failure of TPP and the potential impact on China. This article is divided into seven parts. The first part mainly expounds the background and significance of the research, the literature review at home and abroad, the framework and methods of research, and the innovation points of this article. The second part analyses the theoretical basis and main characteristics of TPP, and focuses on the future development prospects of TPP. The third part analyses the current trade status of China and TPP member countries, mainly from the current situation of China's foreign trade development and the trade status of our country and TPP member countries. The fourth part focuses on the analysis of the potential impact of the United States on our foreign trade in the original TPP framework, mainly from the export of related industries and the empty trade activities in the Asia Pacific region. Between the space of foreign trade development and the promotion of foreign trade level in four aspects. The fifth part analyses the potential impact of TPP stranding on China's foreign trade. The sixth part is the specific measures to deal with TPP in China, and the seventh part is the conclusion of the future, and the full text is carried out in the full text. On the basis of the summary, the future fate of TPP is mainly faced with two scenarios. First, the TPP maintains the original framework, the United States is not really out of TPP, but the intention is to put it on hold temporarily. The future of TPP is likely to restart the negotiations and reach a consensus. Therefore, the United States is still regarded as TPP in the analysis of the impact of this situation. On this basis, TPP, as a United States led developing country, is a regional economic integration free trade agreement which is based on economic motivation and political motivation in many developing countries. Once its future comes into effect, it will have a negative impact on China's foreign trade and China's agricultural products. The relatively small industries, such as primary products, chemicals and mechanical transportation, will cause greater impact. At the same time, the construction of China's free trade area and the construction of "one area and one road" are facing more uncertainty. Once the standard of TPP becomes the international standard of trade, China will face a more severe trade situation. Of course, TPP will be right China's foreign trade has a negative impact, but to a certain extent it has a positive impact on the development of our foreign trade. To a certain extent, it is beneficial to the promotion of the development level of our foreign trade. For the potential adverse effects, China's countermeasures are mainly three aspects: first, China should constantly strengthen the competitiveness of export products and promote production. Only in this way can the industrial structure be upgraded to strengthen the comparative advantage to other countries; second, actively promote the construction of the free trade area network and implement the "area and one road" strategy, strengthen the economic and trade cooperation between China and the inherent Free Trade Zone partners; third, focus on building the model of domestic demand driven economic growth, only in this way can we get rid of our country as soon as possible. On the other hand, if the United States completely abandoned TPP and made TPP enter the post American era, because of TPP "no one", TPP is going to be stranded. On this basis, the impact of TPP on our country is greater than the disadvantages. The positive impact is that the economic and trade pressure in our country will be significantly reduced, and it will help our country to accelerate the RECP and to accelerate the development of TPP. The negative effect is that the TPP stranding has increased the difficulty of our country's response to the uncertain global trade situation. What China needs to do is to wait for the opportunity, to pay close attention to the trend of TPP, to make the "inner intensive cultivation", to deepen the reform of the domestic economic system, and to choose the TPP negotiations at the appropriate time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F744;F752

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