本文選題：匯率 + 貿(mào)易收支　； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：本研究通過評估匯率波動對進(jìn)出口的影響并分析其與整體貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系,來估計(jì)匯率波動對馬拉維貿(mào)易收支的影響。本研究的指導(dǎo)假設(shè)是馬拉維的匯率波動和貿(mào)易收支有正相關(guān)關(guān)系。自1980年以來,盡管馬拉維政府采取了多項(xiàng)貿(mào)易政策和貨幣政策調(diào)整措施,但馬拉維的貿(mào)易收支仍保持赤字。赤字主要是由以下幾個方面原因造成的:貿(mào)易競爭力不足、生產(chǎn)力有限、國內(nèi)外貿(mào)易聯(lián)系和體制不健全、缺乏多元化、缺乏競爭性的地方產(chǎn)業(yè)以及匯率的波動性。盡管雙邊、地區(qū)和多邊層面的貿(mào)易協(xié)定提供了大量的市場準(zhǔn)入機(jī)會,但貿(mào)易逆差仍在持續(xù)增長。一部分逆差是因?yàn)轳R拉維經(jīng)濟(jì)過度依賴進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品,這些進(jìn)口品對于經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)不可或缺,其中的一些主要產(chǎn)品和商品包括肥料、石油產(chǎn)品、運(yùn)輸設(shè)備、藥品、醫(yī)療設(shè)備、軍事武器、汽車、電器、印刷材料和消費(fèi)食品等。在上個世紀(jì),馬拉維政府實(shí)施多種貨幣政策并嘗試各種匯率制度以維持對名義匯率的控制,并將其作為工具以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和保護(hù)消費(fèi)者和投資者免受通貨膨脹的影響。然而,匯率制度的變化加之國內(nèi)政策沖擊、外部經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊和氣候沖擊,都影響了馬拉維貨幣價(jià)值的波動性及其競爭力。本研究的目的是實(shí)證估計(jì)匯率波動對馬拉維貿(mào)易平衡的影響,我們采用1994-2015年期間的年度時間序列數(shù)據(jù),選取進(jìn)出口額、馬拉維實(shí)際匯率、馬拉維和美國的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(2010=100)與國內(nèi)外GDP作為研究變量,并運(yùn)用均值調(diào)整相對變化統(tǒng)計(jì)模型(Mean Adjusted Relative Change Statistical Model)來估計(jì)波動率。在進(jìn)一步的檢驗(yàn)中,我們使用廣義迪基-富勒(ADF)單位根檢驗(yàn)來考察數(shù)據(jù)的平穩(wěn)性,發(fā)現(xiàn)大多數(shù)變量是二階平穩(wěn)的。我們還運(yùn)用約翰森協(xié)整模型檢驗(yàn)各數(shù)據(jù)序列是否存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,例如進(jìn)(出)口、國內(nèi)(外)收入、進(jìn)出口品相對價(jià)格(以實(shí)際匯率)以及實(shí)際匯率波動率等。在此基礎(chǔ)上,我們利用OLS回歸估計(jì)波動率對貿(mào)易收支的影響。整體研究的結(jié)果表明,實(shí)際匯率波動對馬拉維的貿(mào)易收支有正向影響,盡管影響幅度不是很大。其傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制在于,雖然匯率波動影響出口增長,但同時更為迅速地影響進(jìn)口增長,而且影響幅度超過了出口增量,因?yàn)轳R拉維是一個進(jìn)口密集型國家。本研究還認(rèn)為,馬拉維的貿(mào)易赤字并不表明經(jīng)濟(jì)遭遇困境(例如統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表明馬維拉經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長),而是表明國內(nèi)需求和投資在不斷增長,因此對于馬拉維政府而言,需要把工作重點(diǎn)放在減少和消除貿(mào)易壁壘上,以此鼓勵貿(mào)易增長。另一個結(jié)論是,馬拉維的貨幣貶值從長遠(yuǎn)來看能有效改善貿(mào)易收支,但在短期內(nèi)貿(mào)易收支反而會惡化。因此,貿(mào)易收支對匯率波動的反應(yīng)似乎符合馬歇爾勒納條件,即貶值在長期內(nèi)能改善貿(mào)易收支平衡。
[Abstract]:This study estimates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Malawi's trade balance by assessing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on imports and exports and analyzing the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the overall trade balance. The guiding hypothesis of this study is that there is a positive correlation between Malawi's exchange rate fluctuations and trade balance. Malawi's trade balance has remained in deficit since 1980, despite a number of trade and monetary policy adjustments. The deficit is mainly caused by the following reasons: insufficient trade competitiveness, limited productivity, imperfect domestic and foreign trade links and systems, lack of diversification, lack of competitive local industries and exchange rate volatility. Although bilateral, regional and multilateral trade agreements offer plenty of market access, the trade deficit continues to grow. Part of the deficit is due to Malawi's overdependence on imports, which are essential to the functioning of the economy. Some of the main products and commodities include fertilizers, petroleum products, transportation equipment, medicines, medical equipment, Military weapons, automobiles, electrical appliances, printed materials and consumer food. In the last century, the Malawi government implemented a variety of monetary policies and tried various exchange rate regimes to maintain control of the nominal exchange rate and to use it as a tool to promote economic growth and protect consumers and investors from inflation. However, the changes of exchange rate regime and the impact of domestic policies, external economic shocks and climate shocks all affect the volatility and competitiveness of Malawi's monetary value. The purpose of this study is to empirically estimate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Malawi's trade balance. We use the annual time series data for the period 1994-2015 to select imports and exports, and Malawi's real exchange rate. Malawi and the United States consumer price index 2010 / 100) and domestic and foreign Adjusted as research variables, and the mean adjusted relative change statistical model can be used to estimate volatility. In the further test we use the generalized Dick-Fuller 's unit root test to investigate the stationarity of the data and find that most variables are second-order stationary. We also use Johansen cointegration model to test whether there are cointegration relationships among data sequences, such as in / out port, domestic (external) income, relative price of imports and exports (at the real exchange rate) and real exchange rate volatility. On this basis, we use OLS regression to estimate the impact of volatility on trade balance. The results of the overall study show that the real exchange rate fluctuations have a positive impact on Malawi's trade balance, although the extent of the impact is not very large. The transmission mechanism is that, while exchange rate fluctuations affect export growth, they also affect import growth more rapidly than export increments, as Malawi is an import-intensive country. The study also considers that Malawi's trade deficit does not indicate economic distress (for example, statistics show that the Mavila economy continues to grow, but rather that domestic demand and investment are growing, so for the Government of Malawi, Efforts need to be focused on reducing and removing trade barriers to encourage trade growth. Another conclusion is that Malawi's currency depreciation can effectively improve its trade balance in the long run, but in the short term it will worsen. Therefore, the response of trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations seems to be in line with Marshall Lerner's condition that depreciation can improve the balance of trade in the long run.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F831.6;F742

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