本文選題：有限理性 + Bass模型��； 參考：《南京郵電大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國內(nèi)創(chuàng)新驅動發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的不斷實施與推進,企業(yè)創(chuàng)新的主體地位不斷得到提升,使得越來越多的企業(yè)日益重視市場消費者行為的研究,日益關注企業(yè)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的更新?lián)Q代和多代產(chǎn)品替代擴散的營銷策略和手段等問題。由于市場消費者受到其生理和心理特征等約束,加之消費者不具備一套精準計算、完全一致的偏好體系,消費者大多數(shù)情況下會在能力可及范圍之內(nèi)進行新產(chǎn)品選擇,使得消費者購買產(chǎn)品具有有限理性的特征,因此,消費者的有限理性對企業(yè)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的市場擴散會產(chǎn)生影響。顯然,研究消費者有限理性下企業(yè)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的市場擴散問題,有助于企業(yè)及時創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品,拓展新產(chǎn)品市場,提升企業(yè)市場競爭優(yōu)勢,其研究具有理論與現(xiàn)實意義。本文首先研究了消費者有限理性影響下企業(yè)產(chǎn)品更新?lián)Q代擴散的機理,并設計問卷調查進行實證分析,建立了結構方程,從產(chǎn)品特征、需求特征、外部影響、有限理性因素等四個方面提煉出與多代產(chǎn)品替代相關的主要影響因素,分析了各因素之間的耦合關系和反饋機制,以Bass模型和Norton模型為基礎,建立了含有有限理性因素的創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品市場擴散模型(PR-Bass模型和PR-Norton模型),利用MATLAB軟件進行仿真分析。仿真分析結果表明其擴散情況都符合“S”型的擴散曲線,但由于不同的影響因素,包括產(chǎn)品特征方面(價格、品牌等)和有限理性方面(情緒化和時間精力成本等)以及新產(chǎn)品不同的上市時機等因素都會影響產(chǎn)品擴散曲線的形狀、陡峭程度、峰值等特征。論文研究將為企業(yè)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)、市場進入和拓展提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the continuous implementation and promotion of the domestic innovation driven development strategy, the main position of enterprise innovation has been continuously promoted, which makes more and more enterprises pay more attention to the research of market consumer behavior, and pay more attention to the marketing strategy and means of the renewal of enterprise innovation products and the substitution diffusion of multi generation products. The consumer is constrained by its physiological and psychological characteristics, and the consumer does not have a set of accurate calculations, a fully consistent preference system. In most cases, consumers will choose new products within the range of ability and scope, making consumers buy products with limited rationality. Therefore, the limited rationality of consumers to enterprise innovation. The market diffusion of products will have an impact. Obviously, it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the market diffusion of enterprise innovation products under the limited rationality of consumers, which will help enterprises to innovate products in time, expand new product market and enhance the competitive advantage of enterprise market. The mechanism of the renewal and diffusion of the product is made, and the questionnaire survey is designed to make an empirical analysis. The structural equation is established. The main factors related to the substitution of multi generation products are extracted from four aspects, such as product characteristics, demand characteristics, external influence, and limited rational factors. The coupling relationship and feedback mechanism among various factors are analyzed, and Bass model and No are used. Based on the rton model, the market diffusion model of innovative products (PR-Bass model and PR-Norton model) with limited rational factors is established, and the simulation analysis is made using MATLAB software. The simulation results show that the diffusion condition is consistent with the "S" type diffusion curve, but because of the different influence factors, including product characteristics (price, product) And limited rationality (emotional and time and energy cost, etc.) and the different timing of the new product will affect the shape, steepness and peak value of the product diffusion curve. The paper will provide the decision-making basis for the research and development of enterprise innovation products, market entry and extension.
【學位授予單位】：南京郵電大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F713.55;F273.1

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