發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-14 11:41

  本文選題：歐債危機(jī) + 中非經(jīng)濟(jì)��； 參考：《東南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：本研究旨在從理論上分析歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)于“中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣共同體”的經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)深度放緩的中心在美國(guó)。美國(guó)主要住房市場(chǎng)的繁榮的衰退引發(fā)次級(jí)貸款的崩潰,從而影響到金融和房地產(chǎn)行業(yè),并通過銀行間流動(dòng)性的缺乏擴(kuò)展到歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟內(nèi)的銀行。而且,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)以及后來的歐洲主權(quán)危機(jī)通過歐元和非洲法郎之間建立的貨幣聯(lián)系而擴(kuò)展到中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣共同體國(guó)家。1998年,歐洲委員會(huì)同意在歐元、非洲法郎和科摩羅法郎之間建立聯(lián)系并將歐元和非洲法郎的兌換比例定位1歐元=655非洲法郎。在這個(gè)關(guān)系中,中非國(guó)家最關(guān)心的是歐元的波動(dòng)情況,此波動(dòng)使得在引言中解釋的主權(quán)債務(wù)很難管理。另外一個(gè)關(guān)心的事情是為了克服所有國(guó)際金融和貨幣危機(jī)而需要的國(guó)家貨幣儲(chǔ)備量。因此作為一個(gè)反通脹機(jī)構(gòu),中非經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣共同體不應(yīng)該擔(dān)心通脹的打擊。但是中非經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣共同體國(guó)家應(yīng)該會(huì)受到低匯款額和外商直接投資的影響,同時(shí)接受到的幫助也受到了威脅,包括原材料的出口需求的減少。然而,由于他們(一般的低收入國(guó)家,特別是中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣共同體)的出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴的多樣化而引起的他們和新興國(guó)家的關(guān)系,使得歐洲主權(quán)危機(jī)擴(kuò)展對(duì)中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣共同體的影響低于預(yù)期或者推測(cè)。另外,事實(shí)上中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣共同體國(guó)家通過貿(mào)易和世界的聯(lián)系變得更加緊密。外商直接投資平衡了他們對(duì)歐元區(qū)的出口,出口量從20年前的50%變成最近的25%。而且,針對(duì)中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣共同體地區(qū)的主權(quán)債務(wù),例如由國(guó)際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行聯(lián)合發(fā)起的針對(duì)負(fù)擔(dān)最重的窮國(guó),例如喀麥隆、剛果共和國(guó)和乍得的債務(wù)減免政策,減輕了主權(quán)債務(wù)對(duì)金融行業(yè)的影響,官方發(fā)展援助的下降和降低移民的轉(zhuǎn)移。在2011年-2012年第一季度這段時(shí)間,在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩的背景下,中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣共同體地區(qū)出現(xiàn)了繁榮的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì),GDP以5%的速度增長(zhǎng)。這主要是受到向新興市場(chǎng)例如中國(guó)出口石油和其他原材料的影響。然而,我們可以肯定,盡管主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的影響有限,但是中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣共同體地區(qū)也容易受到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩,特別是作為中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣共同體地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要進(jìn)口商和投資者的歐元區(qū)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)的放緩的間接影響。中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣共同體地區(qū)的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)沒有完全融合：通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)落后、勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移范圍較窄、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)由第一產(chǎn)業(yè)帶動(dòng),而且銀行只在中央銀行的層面上相互聯(lián)系。中部非洲國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣共同體國(guó)家應(yīng)該將財(cái)政政策和整個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)整合在一起,增加第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì),發(fā)展區(qū)域內(nèi)部的貿(mào)易和通信基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study is to theoretically analyze the impact of the sovereign debt crisis of the European Monetary Union on the economy of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community.The center of the deep slowdown in the global economy is in the United States.The boom recession in America's main housing market triggered the collapse of subprime loans, affecting the financial and real estate sectors and extending to banks within the European Monetary Union through a lack of interbank liquidity.Furthermore, we found that the financial crisis and the subsequent European sovereign crisis extended to the countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community through the monetary link between the euro and the CFA.To establish a link between the CFA franc and the Comorian franc and to place the conversion ratio of the euro and CFA franc at 1 euro or 655 CFA francs.In this relationship, the central African countries are most concerned about the volatility of the euro, which makes the sovereign debt explained in the introduction difficult to manage.Another concern is the amount of national currency reserves needed to overcome all international financial and currency crises.Therefore, as an anti-inflation agency, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community should not worry about the impact of inflation.But the Central African Economic and Monetary Community should be affected by low remittances and foreign direct investment, as well as a threat to help, including reduced demand for exports of raw materials.However, as a result of their exports and diversification of their economic partners (in general low-income countries, in particular the Central African Economic and Monetary Community), their relationship with emerging countries,The spread of the European sovereign crisis has had less or less than expected impact on the economic and monetary communities of Central African countries.In addition, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have become more closely connected through trade and the world.Foreign direct investment balanced their exports to the euro zone, from 50% 20 years ago to 25% more recently.Moreover, with regard to the sovereign debt of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community region, such as the joint initiative of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank aimed at the most burdensome poor countries, such as Cameroon,The debt relief policies of the Republic of Congo and Chad have reduced the impact of sovereign debt on the financial sector, reduced official development assistance (ODA) and reduced migration.Between 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, amid the global economic turmoil, the region of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) experienced a booming macroeconomic growth rate of 5 percent.This is mainly affected by the export of oil and other raw materials to emerging markets such as China.However, we can be sure that, despite the limited impact of the sovereign debt crisis, the region of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community is also vulnerable to a global economic slowdown.In particular, the indirect effects of the slowdown in the economies of the euro zone, which are major importers and investors of the economies of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community region.The economies of the Central African countries and the monetary community as a whole are not fully integrated: the communication network is backward, the scope of labor transfer is narrower, the economic growth is driven by the primary industry, and the banks are only interconnected at the level of the central bank.The countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) should integrate fiscal policies with the overall macroeconomic structure, increase the economy of the secondary and tertiary industries, and develop intra-regional trade and communications infrastructure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F835;F754

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