本文選題：技術(shù)溢出 + 進口服務(wù)貿(mào)易��； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：服務(wù)貿(mào)易是在一定歷史條件下產(chǎn)生的。國際服務(wù)貿(mào)易從邏輯上起源于國際貨物貿(mào)易,它獨立于國際貨物貿(mào)易,并于二十世紀(jì)末在我國獲得了長足的發(fā)展。服務(wù)貿(mào)易具有附加值高、技術(shù)含量高和資金密度高的特點。從全球范圍來看,科技產(chǎn)出主要集中在少數(shù)發(fā)達國家手中,而技術(shù)進步卻在全球范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生。廣大發(fā)展中國家和地區(qū)作為技術(shù)追隨國和模仿國,主要是通過分享世界技術(shù)進步成果獲得先進技術(shù)。因此,作為一個發(fā)展中國家,我們不得不考慮通過國際貿(mào)易的技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)能夠獲得哪些動態(tài)收益。大量理論研究和實證研究都證實了服務(wù)貿(mào)易技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)的存在性,服務(wù)貿(mào)易的技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)對發(fā)展中國家的技術(shù)進步至關(guān)重要。然而,盡管服務(wù)貿(mào)易在全球經(jīng)濟中扮演重要角色,但以往的文獻對其重視程度不夠,對貨物貿(mào)易的研究遠遠多于對服務(wù)貿(mào)易的研究。本文則是在新古典增長理論、新貿(mào)易理論和內(nèi)生增長理論的支撐下,運用基于VAR模型的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解法,結(jié)合我國1983-2013年服務(wù)貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),對模型進行ADF單位根檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗,動態(tài)分析我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易進口與技術(shù)進步之間長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系。實證分析結(jié)果表明,服務(wù)貿(mào)易進口的技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)對技術(shù)進步有明顯的促進作用,而技術(shù)進步不能顯著影響服務(wù)貿(mào)易進口。從脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解分析可以更清晰的看出,短期內(nèi)服務(wù)貿(mào)易進口對技術(shù)進步的貢獻率較大,隨著時間的延長,正效應(yīng)逐漸減小。技術(shù)進步對服務(wù)貿(mào)易進口也存在一定的促進作用和較長的持續(xù)效應(yīng)。最后,在理論分析和實證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,針對我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易現(xiàn)階段特征和存在問題,提出加強我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易進口技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)的對策。
[Abstract]:Service trade is produced under certain historical conditions.International trade in services originated logically from international trade in goods. It is independent of international trade in goods and has developed rapidly in China at the end of the 20th century.Trade in services is characterized by high added value, high technology and high capital density.Globally, technological output is concentrated in a small number of developed countries, while technological progress takes place globally.As a technological follower and a mimic country, developing countries and regions acquire advanced technology mainly by sharing the achievements of the world's technological progress.Therefore, as a developing country, we have to consider what dynamic benefits can be obtained through the technology spillover effect of international trade.A large number of theoretical and empirical studies have confirmed the existence of technology spillover effects in services trade, and the technology spillover effects of service trade are of great importance to the technological progress of developing countries.However, although trade in services plays an important role in the global economy, the previous literature has not paid enough attention to it, and the research on trade in goods is far more than that on trade in services.Supported by neoclassical growth theory, new trade theory and endogenous growth theory, this paper applies impulse response function and variance decomposition method based on VAR model, and combines statistics data of China's trade in services from 1983 to 2013.The ADF unit root test, Granger causality test and cointegration test are used to dynamically analyze the long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China's service trade imports and technological progress.The empirical results show that the technology spillover effect of service trade imports can obviously promote the technological progress, but the technological progress can not significantly affect the service trade imports.From the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, it can be seen that in the short term, the contribution rate of service trade imports to technological progress is large, and the positive effect decreases gradually with the extension of time.The technical progress also has the certain promotion function and the longer lasting effect to the service trade import.Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research, aiming at the characteristics and existing problems of China's service trade at the present stage, this paper puts forward some countermeasures to strengthen the technology spillover effect of China's service trade imports.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.68

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 陳怡;林春回;;我國國際服務(wù)貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計體系問題研究[J];華僑大學(xué)學(xué)報(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版);2005年04期

2 曲建君;;全要素生產(chǎn)率測算方法的比較[J];經(jīng)濟師;2007年02期

3 孫兆剛,劉則淵,孟麗菊;企業(yè)對知識溢出吸收能力的測度[J];科學(xué)技術(shù)與工程;2005年04期

4 公維麗;孔慶峰;;服務(wù)貿(mào)易與貨物貿(mào)易的因果關(guān)系研究——基于誤差修正模型的分析[J];中共青島市委黨校.青島行政學(xué)院學(xué)報;2010年02期

5 方希樺;包群;賴明勇;;國際技術(shù)溢出:基于進口傳導(dǎo)機制的實證研究[J];中國軟科學(xué);2004年07期

6 仇怡;方齊云;;基于進口貿(mào)易的國際技術(shù)外溢測度與應(yīng)用[J];中國軟科學(xué);2005年10期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 陳凱;中國進口貿(mào)易技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)研究[D];東華大學(xué);2014年

，

本文編號：1735797