發(fā)布時間：2018-01-29 11:24

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 稅負 管制 服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展 供給側(cè)改革　出處：《浙江大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：2016年5月16日,中共中央總書記習近平指出"當前我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中有周期性、總量性問題,但結(jié)構(gòu)性問題最突出,矛盾的主要方面在供給側(cè)"。那么在當前供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的深化階段,"簡政減稅"作為新一屆政府大力推行的改革將如何解決"服務(wù)業(yè)滯后發(fā)展"這一我國最主要的供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)問題呢?為了回答這一問題,本文基于現(xiàn)有研究,首先從理論上探討了稅負、管制影響服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的作用機制,并提出四個基本假說:假說1:稅負、管制會抑制服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展;假說2:稅負在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的作用下會對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生異質(zhì)性的影響,隨著經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的提高,稅負對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的負效應(yīng)逐步減小,而管制對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的抑制效應(yīng)愈加凸顯;假說3:稅負、管制在經(jīng)濟周期的作用下會對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生異質(zhì)性的影響。稅負在經(jīng)濟衰退期的負效應(yīng)更大,管制在經(jīng)濟繁榮期將對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生抑制效應(yīng),而在經(jīng)濟衰退期產(chǎn)生促進效應(yīng);假說4:不同服務(wù)業(yè)行業(yè)中,稅負、管制對行業(yè)發(fā)展的影響可能有所差異。其次,本文選取2004-2013年中國31個省份的省級面板數(shù)據(jù),分別利用靜態(tài)面板模型和動態(tài)面板模型驗證了假說1。同時本文又利用交互項回歸、門限回歸、分組回歸等方法,探究了稅負、管制對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展影響的基于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平、經(jīng)濟周期、行業(yè)差異的非線性特征,檢驗了假說2、假說3和假說4。實證結(jié)果表明,稅負、管制會對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展會產(chǎn)生顯著的抑制作用,但這種作用在不同經(jīng)濟發(fā)展階段、不同經(jīng)濟周期、不同行業(yè)中的表現(xiàn)都有差異。具體來說,相較于欠發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體,在發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體中稅負對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的負效應(yīng)較小,而管制對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的負效應(yīng)要更加明顯。在經(jīng)濟衰退階段,稅負將會對服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生更為嚴重的負向影響,管制將對服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展表現(xiàn)為促進效應(yīng)。在經(jīng)濟繁榮期,管制則表現(xiàn)為抑制效應(yīng)。且由于行業(yè)差異,在不同行業(yè)中,稅負、管制對其發(fā)展的影響亦有所不同。上述結(jié)論的啟示是,當前推進的供給側(cè)改革需因地制宜、因時制宜,結(jié)合行業(yè)特征,制定差異化的"簡政減稅"政策,全面促進我國服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In May 16th 2016, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, pointed out that "at present, there are cyclical and total problems in China's economic development, but structural problems are most prominent." The main aspect of the contradiction lies on the supply-side ". Then, in the deepening stage of the structural reform on the supply-side at present. How to solve the problem of "lagging development of service industry", which is the main supply-side structure problem of our country, is "simplified administration tax reduction" as the reform that the new government vigorously implements? In order to answer this question, based on the existing research, this paper first discusses the mechanism of tax burden and regulation affecting the development of service industry theoretically, and puts forward four basic hypotheses: hypothesis 1: tax burden. Control will inhibit the development of the service industry; Hypothesis 2: under the action of economic development, the tax burden will have a heterogeneous impact on the development of service industry. With the improvement of economic development level, the negative effect of tax burden on the development of service industry will gradually decrease. The inhibitory effect of regulation on the development of service industry is more and more prominent. Hypothesis 3: tax burden, regulation under the role of the economic cycle will have a heterogeneous impact on the development of the service industry. Regulation will have an inhibitory effect on the development of service industry during the period of economic prosperity and a promoting effect in the period of economic decline. Hypothesis 4: in different service industries, the impact of tax burden and regulation on industry development may be different. Secondly, this paper selects the provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2013. Using static panel model and dynamic panel model to verify the hypothesis 1. At the same time, this paper uses interactive regression, threshold regression, group regression and other methods to explore the tax burden. The influence of regulation on the development of service industry is based on the nonlinear characteristics of economic development level, economic cycle and industry differences. Hypothesis 2, hypothesis 3 and hypothesis 4. The empirical results show that the tax burden. Regulation can have a significant inhibitory effect on the development of the service industry, but this effect varies in different stages of economic development, in different economic cycles, in different industries, in particular, compared with less developed economies. In the developed economies, the negative effect of tax burden on the development of service industry is relatively small, while the negative effect of regulation on the development of service industry is more obvious. The tax burden will have a more serious negative impact on the development of the service industry. Regulation will have a positive effect on the development of the service industry. In the period of economic prosperity, the regulation will have a negative effect on the development of the service industry. In different industries, the impact of tax burden and regulation on its development is also different. The enlightenment of the above conclusion is that the current supply-side reform should be adapted to local conditions and times, combined with the characteristics of the industry. To formulate the differential tax reduction policy to promote the development of our service industry.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F719;F812.42;F715.5

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