本文關(guān)鍵詞： 低碳經(jīng)濟(jì) 出口商品結(jié)構(gòu) 初級產(chǎn)品 工業(yè)制成品 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和國際化水平不斷提高的同時,我國的出口商品構(gòu)成也在一定程度上發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變,出口貿(mào)易完成了從初級產(chǎn)品向工業(yè)制成品的過渡。然而,這種長期高能耗、高排放、高污染、低附加值的對外貿(mào)易模式,導(dǎo)致大量資源被耗費(fèi),CO2排放量也日益提高。如今全球氣候變化對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化造成了嚴(yán)重威脅,因此,在低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的背景下研究出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系對優(yōu)化對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、保證經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。研究運(yùn)用回歸分析的方法建立向量自相關(guān)模型對低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下我國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析。在考察低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)、出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的聯(lián)系時發(fā)現(xiàn),一方面,為了促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)和對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展,大量資源被消耗,如若經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和對外貿(mào)易的結(jié)構(gòu)不相適應(yīng)則還有可能會對環(huán)境造成破壞,即經(jīng)濟(jì)與對外貿(mào)易不協(xié)調(diào)會造成資源短缺、環(huán)境污染等問題。另一方面,由于我國長期三高一低落后的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式導(dǎo)致環(huán)境的惡化和損壞,資源匱乏、生態(tài)破壞等一系列問題又阻礙了我國的商品出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。研究選取了我國1985-2013年間的初級產(chǎn)品出口、工業(yè)制成品出口、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和二氧化碳排放量的年度數(shù)據(jù),其中,初級產(chǎn)品出口和工業(yè)制成品出口是出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的測度,國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的衡量指標(biāo),CO2排放量是生產(chǎn)對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生的負(fù)效應(yīng)和低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)約束,運(yùn)用多種計(jì)量分析方法對模型進(jìn)行回歸和檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明,我國的商品出口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間存在著非常緊密的關(guān)系,并且從長期來看,工業(yè)制成品在拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方面的作用要明顯大于初級產(chǎn)品,但是在短期卻恰好相反;工業(yè)制成品的出口會產(chǎn)生大量的CO2排放,但是反過來CO2的排放卻沒有對工業(yè)制成品的出口產(chǎn)生影響,即,工業(yè)制成品的出口是造成環(huán)境惡化的原因�？偨Y(jié)探討低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)、對外貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的短期動態(tài)調(diào)整和長期平衡關(guān)系,說明發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)在優(yōu)化我國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)保證我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定、健康發(fā)展方面的重要作用。根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的對策建議,說明為緩解對外貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長所面臨的環(huán)境壓力,我國需要推動加工貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)型升級,提高出口產(chǎn)品附加值、促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,優(yōu)化出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)、鼓勵低碳能源技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,大力發(fā)展低碳產(chǎn)業(yè)。
[Abstract]:In the continuous improvement of China's economic development level and the international level at the same time, China's export commodity structure has changed to a certain extent, the export trade completed the transition from primary products to manufactured goods. However, the long-term high energy consumption, high emissions, high pollution and low added value of foreign trade mode, resulting in a large number of resource waste, CO2 emissions are increasing. Now the global climate change on economic growth and optimization of export commodity structure caused a serious threat, therefore, research on export commodity structure and the economic growth in the low carbon economy under the background of the relationship to optimize the foreign trade structure, it has important meaning to ensure the sustainable development of the economy. Study on using regression analysis method to analyze the establishment of vector auto correlation model of low carbon economy under the background of the export commodity structure and the economic growth in China. In the study of low carbon economy, On the one hand, between commodity export structure and economic growth relations, in order to promote economic and trade development, a large number of resources consumption, economic development and foreign trade structure should not adapt to and may cause damage to the environment, the economy and the foreign trade coordination will cause the shortage of resources, environmental pollution etc. the problem. On the other hand, because of our long three high and one low backward mode of economic development leads to the deterioration and damage the environment, lack of resources, a series of problems of ecological damage has hindered China's commodity exports and economic growth. The research selects China's 1985-2013 years of primary products exports, exports of manufactured goods, the annual the data of GDP and CO2 emissions in the export of primary products and manufactured goods export is a measure of the export commodity structure, the gross domestic product of economic development Measure, CO2 emissions are negative effects on economic development and production of low carbon economic constraints, using quantitative analysis method and regression to test the model. The results show that there is a very close relationship between exports and economic growth in China, and in the long run, the effect of industrial manufactured goods in terms of the economic growth is significantly higher than that of primary products, but in the short term is the opposite; the export of manufactured goods will produce a large amount of CO2 emission, but the emission of CO2 in turn has not affected the export of manufactured goods, that is, the export of manufactured goods is the cause of the deterioration of the environment. To investigate the low carbon economy, short-term dynamic adjustment and the long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, indicating the development of low carbon economy to ensure sustained, the stability of China's economy in China's export commodity structure optimization, health The important role of development. Puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the empirical results, that faces to alleviate the foreign trade and economic growth environmental pressure, China needs to promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, improve the added value of export products, and promote the transformation of industrial structure, optimize the structure of export commodities, encourage low-carbon energy technology innovation, vigorously develop low carbon industry.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.62;F124.5

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