本文關(guān)鍵詞： 中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊 貿(mào)易潛力 隨機(jī)前沿引力模型　出處：《山東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略是中國(guó)對(duì)外開(kāi)放的一項(xiàng)重大戰(zhàn)略決策,具有重大的歷史和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。中國(guó)-中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊為“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略建設(shè)的六大經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊之一,其建設(shè)的核心和實(shí)質(zhì)是新時(shí)代背景下的區(qū)域合作戰(zhàn)略,為中國(guó)與中南半島各國(guó)之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易合作提供了新思路和新機(jī)遇,將進(jìn)一步深化中國(guó)和中南半島國(guó)家之間的交流與合作,開(kāi)創(chuàng)中國(guó)與中南半島之間貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)合作的歷史新時(shí)代。本文以中國(guó)與中南半島之間的貿(mào)易為研究對(duì)象,通過(guò)理論研究與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,重點(diǎn)論證中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)對(duì)中國(guó)與中南半島貿(mào)易潛力的影響。首先對(duì)中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊、貿(mào)易潛力和貿(mào)易效率等概念進(jìn)行了界定,隨后分別從“一帶一路”、中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊、貿(mào)易潛力以及隨機(jī)前沿引力模型應(yīng)用四個(gè)角度進(jìn)行綜述,為整篇論文的開(kāi)展奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。之后探討了中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)對(duì)中國(guó)與中南半島貿(mào)易潛力影響的作用機(jī)理:根據(jù)空間價(jià)格均衡模型,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)互通互聯(lián)提高貿(mào)易效率;根據(jù)投資產(chǎn)生的貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng),絲路基金拓展貿(mào)易合作。利用空間價(jià)格均衡模型和貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng),闡述中國(guó)-中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)中,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施互通互聯(lián)提高貿(mào)易效率、絲路基金拓展貿(mào)易合作,從理論層面對(duì)中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)對(duì)中國(guó)與中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊貿(mào)易潛力的影響進(jìn)行研究,從而為實(shí)證研究做鋪墊。在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,研究了中國(guó)與中南半島貿(mào)易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和潛力以及影響貿(mào)易潛力的主要因素,中國(guó)與中南半島的貿(mào)易潛力巨大,主要表現(xiàn)在:貿(mào)易額保持快速增長(zhǎng);經(jīng)濟(jì)和貿(mào)易合作的互補(bǔ)性較強(qiáng);貿(mào)易投資存在巨大潛力。緊接著從理論層面探索了中國(guó)與中南半島貿(mào)易潛力的影響因素,主要有經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、航運(yùn)距離、中國(guó)-東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)的成立以及打造中國(guó)-東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)升級(jí)版、海上經(jīng)貿(mào)合作等。在分析貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀和潛力的基礎(chǔ)上,為了從數(shù)量上測(cè)算中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)對(duì)中國(guó)與中南半島貿(mào)易潛力的影響,本文采用隨機(jī)前沿分析方法,對(duì)2006-2015年中南半島7國(guó)10年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行隨機(jī)前沿分析,通過(guò)建立隨機(jī)前沿引力模型與貿(mào)易非效率模型,對(duì)中國(guó)與中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊國(guó)家的貿(mào)易潛力及其影響因素進(jìn)行分析,用雙邊貿(mào)易效率反映貿(mào)易潛力,得出如下結(jié)論:(1)隨機(jī)前沿分析方法適用于研究雙邊貿(mào)易潛力的估測(cè);(2)貿(mào)易非效率項(xiàng)具有時(shí)變性;(3)貿(mào)易潛力的影響因素;(4)雙邊貿(mào)易處于非效率狀態(tài),雙邊貿(mào)易具有很大的提升空間;(5)貿(mào)易非效率項(xiàng)對(duì)雙邊的影響。最后,本文基于理論與實(shí)證分析提出通過(guò)中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè),發(fā)掘中國(guó)與中南半島貿(mào)易潛力的建議。
[Abstract]:The "Belt and Road" strategy is a major strategic decision of China's opening to the outside world, and has great historical and practical significance. The China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor is one of the six economic corridors of the strategic construction of "Belt and Road". The core and essence of its construction is the strategy of regional cooperation under the background of the new era, which provides new ideas and opportunities for the economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries of Indochina Peninsula. It will further deepen the exchanges and cooperation between China and the Indochina Peninsula countries, and create a new historical era of trade and economic cooperation between China and the Indochina Peninsula. This paper takes the trade between China and the Indochina Peninsula as the research object. Through the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis, this paper focuses on the impact of the construction of the Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor on the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula. First of all, the Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor. The concepts of trade potential and trade efficiency are defined and summarized from four perspectives: Belt and Road, Indochina Economic Corridor, Trade potential and Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. After that, the paper discusses the influence mechanism of the economic corridor construction on the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula: according to the spatial price equilibrium model. (B) Infrastructure connectivity to improve trade efficiency; According to the trade creation effect of investment, the Silk Road Fund expands the trade cooperation. Using the spatial price equilibrium model and the trade creation effect, the paper expounds the construction of the economic corridor between China and the Indochina Peninsula. Infrastructure interconnection to improve trade efficiency, the Silk Road Fund to expand trade cooperation, from a theoretical level to the Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor construction on the trade potential of China and Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the paper studies the current situation and potential of trade development between China and Indochina Peninsula and the main factors affecting trade potential. The trade potential between China and Indochina Peninsula is huge. The main manifestations are as follows: the volume of trade keeps increasing rapidly; Economic and trade cooperation is highly complementary; There is great potential in trade and investment. Then it explores the influence factors of trade potential between China and Indochina Peninsula from the theoretical level, mainly the level of economic development, shipping distance. The establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area and the creation of an upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area, maritime economic and trade cooperation, etc. Based on the analysis of the current situation and potential of trade. In order to measure quantitatively the influence of the construction of Indochina Economic Corridor on the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula, this paper adopts the stochastic frontier analysis method. The panel data of 7 countries in the Indochina Peninsula from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed by stochastic frontier analysis, and the random frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model were established. This paper analyzes the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor countries and its influencing factors, and reflects the trade potential with bilateral trade efficiency. The conclusion is as follows: 1) the stochastic frontier analysis method is suitable for estimating the potential of bilateral trade; (2) the term of trade inefficiency is time-varying; (III) factors affecting trade potential; (4) bilateral trade is in an inefficient state, and bilateral trade has great room for improvement; Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions to explore the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula through the construction of the Indochina Economic Corridor.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.7

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 姜書(shū)竹,張旭昆;東盟貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的引力模型[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2003年10期

2 林玲,王炎;貿(mào)易引力模型對(duì)中國(guó)雙邊貿(mào)易的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)和政策含義[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2004年07期

3 何躍;;中國(guó)與中南半島國(guó)家地緣關(guān)系分析[J];上海師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2008年06期

4 吳丹;;東亞雙邊進(jìn)口貿(mào)易流量與潛力:基于貿(mào)易引力模型的實(shí)證研究[J];國(guó)際貿(mào)易問(wèn)題;2008年05期

5 趙雨霖;林光華;;中國(guó)與東盟10國(guó)雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易流量與貿(mào)易潛力的分析——基于貿(mào)易引力模型的研究[J];國(guó)際貿(mào)易問(wèn)題;2008年12期

6 谷彬;;中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)區(qū)域發(fā)展影響因素的實(shí)證研究——兼論地區(qū)工業(yè)化對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)的擠壓效應(yīng)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2008年09期

7 朱陸民;陳麗斌;;地緣戰(zhàn)略角度思考中國(guó)與中南半島合作的重要意義[J];世界地理研究;2011年02期

8 魯曉東;趙奇?zhèn)?;中國(guó)的出口潛力及其影響因素——基于隨機(jī)前沿引力模型的估計(jì)[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2010年10期

9 黃莉芳;黃良文;洪琳琳;;基于隨機(jī)前沿模型的中國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)技術(shù)效率測(cè)算及影響因素探討[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2011年06期

10 董亞娟;;區(qū)域文化產(chǎn)業(yè)效率的影響因素研究——基于隨機(jī)前沿模型的分析[J];商業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理;2012年07期

，

本文編號(hào)：1465214