發(fā)布時間：2018-01-25 03:04

  本文關鍵詞： 廣東省 貿(mào)易引力模型 貿(mào)易潛力　出處：《華南理工大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：地處中國沿海地區(qū)的廣東省,是我國典型的外向型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展區(qū),為我國改革開放三十多年經(jīng)濟能夠高速發(fā)展的做出了重要貢獻。在全球經(jīng)濟復蘇緩慢、美國戰(zhàn)略重心向亞太轉(zhuǎn)移、阿拉伯世界動亂頻繁、中日關系日趨緊張以及東海、南海爭端不斷的時代背景下,廣東省經(jīng)濟高速發(fā)展所依賴的對外貿(mào)易面臨著前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。為進一步使廣東省的經(jīng)濟得到可持續(xù)發(fā)展,這需要我們在多元視角與世界視野中穿越歷史、現(xiàn)實與未來,將國際經(jīng)濟、政治、文化、宗教、科學技術等多方面相結(jié)合進行研究。本文通過利用貿(mào)易引力模型,對廣東省與36個主要貿(mào)易伙伴國(地區(qū))1993-2012年的貿(mào)易流,采用面板數(shù)據(jù)的方法估計貿(mào)易引力模型進行回歸分析,以探討影響廣東省對外貿(mào)易的主要因素,特別是在加入WTO和區(qū)域貿(mào)易協(xié)定對貿(mào)易整體的作用,以及對廣東省的貿(mào)易潛力進行分析。文章從廣東省對外貿(mào)易早期發(fā)展概況為出發(fā)點,在從貿(mào)易總量、結(jié)構(gòu)和競爭力三個角度對廣東省的貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀進行分析的基礎上,首先對貿(mào)易引力模型進行了修正,并對樣本選擇和數(shù)據(jù)來源進行了分析。然后,通過對比不同的數(shù)據(jù)處理和回歸方法的選擇,對引力模型的設定和估計方法的選擇進行了較為全面的分析。在各種方法估計結(jié)果的基礎上,選擇最合適的貿(mào)易引力模型方法,并分析了四個不同樣本的貿(mào)易引力模型的回歸結(jié)果,對模型的適用性進行了驗證。再次,運用貿(mào)易引力模型對廣東省的貿(mào)易潛力進行分析,估計一個預測值,包括出口潛力和進口潛力。最后,根據(jù)四個樣本貿(mào)易引力模型回歸分析結(jié)果和貿(mào)易潛力分析結(jié)果,給出主要結(jié)論,并期望能提供相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Guangdong Province, which is located in the coastal areas of China, is a typical export-oriented economic development area in China. It has made an important contribution to the rapid economic development of our country for more than 30 years of reform and opening up, and has been slowly recovering in the global economy. The strategic focus of the United States shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, the frequent turmoil in the Arab world, the growing tension between China and Japan, and the East China Sea, the South China Sea disputes in the background of the times. The foreign trade on which the rapid economic development of Guangdong Province depends is facing unprecedented challenges. In order to further make the economy of Guangdong Province sustainable development, we need to cross the history in the view of multiple perspectives and the world. Reality and future, the international economy, politics, culture, religion, science and technology and other aspects of the study. A regression analysis of trade flows between Guangdong Province and 36 major trading partner countries (regions) from 1993 to 2012 was carried out by using panel data to estimate trade gravity model. In order to explore the main factors affecting Guangdong's foreign trade, especially in the accession to WTO and regional trade agreements on the overall role of trade. From the perspective of the early development of foreign trade in Guangdong Province, the paper analyzes the trade potential of Guangdong Province. Based on the analysis of the trade situation in Guangdong Province from the perspective of structure and competitiveness, this paper first modifies the trade gravity model, and analyzes the sample selection and data source. By comparing the selection of different data processing and regression methods, the selection of gravity model and estimation method is analyzed comprehensively. On the basis of the estimation results of various methods. Choose the most suitable trade gravity model method, and analyze the regression results of four different samples of trade gravity model, and verify the applicability of the model. Using the trade gravity model to analyze the trade potential of Guangdong Province, estimate a forecast value, including export potential and import potential. Finally. According to the results of regression analysis of four sample trade gravity models and the results of trade potential analysis, the main conclusions are given, and the corresponding policy recommendations are expected to be provided.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.8

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本文編號：1461809