本文關(guān)鍵詞： TPP 貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移 引力模型 出口產(chǎn)品相似性指數(shù)　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：金融危機(jī)后的世界各國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇乏力,步履維艱,越來越希望通過貿(mào)易自由化來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。特別是21世紀(jì)以來,雙邊或多邊自由貿(mào)易協(xié)議如雨后春筍,“跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)議”(Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, TPP)正是此背景下的產(chǎn)物之一。自2009年美國加入TPP后,TPP規(guī)模迅速擴(kuò)大,尤其是日本的加入更是極大的擴(kuò)充了TPP的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力和影響力。目前TPP成員國已經(jīng)達(dá)到12個,經(jīng)濟(jì)總量占到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)總量40%,貿(mào)易額占全球貿(mào)易的1/3。有別于以往的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定,TPP是一個高水平的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定,協(xié)定內(nèi)容不僅包括貨物貿(mào)易,還涵蓋服務(wù)貿(mào)易、勞動、投資、環(huán)境等眾多領(lǐng)域。因此,TPP的發(fā)展將對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治產(chǎn)生重大影響,會改變亞太地區(qū)乃至世界范圍內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)合作方式。此外,中國作為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體和亞太地區(qū)的重要大國,目前并沒有被邀請加入TPP,這將導(dǎo)致中國不可避免地受到TPP的影響。 一直以來,日本都是中國的重要貿(mào)易伙伴,中日貿(mào)易關(guān)系取得了長足發(fā)展。但當(dāng)前中日貿(mào)易受到諸多負(fù)面因素的影響,中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)談判也止步不前,而日本卻選擇加入由美國主導(dǎo)的TPP,其目的和意圖值得研究。本文以日本貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)為基礎(chǔ),從貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移的角度,分析其加入TPP給中國對日出口帶來的影響。 本文運(yùn)用定量與定性相結(jié)合的研究方法,第一部分簡要介紹了研究此論題的背景與意義、國內(nèi)外的研究成果、研究的思路與內(nèi)容、研究方法和本文的創(chuàng)新與不足之處：第二部分回顧了TPP的發(fā)展歷程,分析其內(nèi)容及特點(diǎn),并從政治與經(jīng)濟(jì)兩方面研究了日本加入TPP的背景；第三部分運(yùn)用大量的中貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù),分析中日貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀,以及從商品結(jié)構(gòu)、貿(mào)易地位和貿(mào)易方式三個方面研究中日貿(mào)易關(guān)系的變化；第四部分首先介紹日本加入TPP對中國對日出口的影響的機(jī)理,并通過面板數(shù)據(jù)引力模型和產(chǎn)品出口相似性指數(shù)等工具分析了對中國對日出口產(chǎn)生的影響；第五部分是對前文的總結(jié),并結(jié)合中國所面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí),提出針對性的建議。研究結(jié)果表明,日本加入TPP有其政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)兩方面的考量,將會對中日貿(mào)易的發(fā)展前景產(chǎn)生不利影響。特別是日本加入TPP會降低日本對中國商品進(jìn)口的依賴,轉(zhuǎn)而加強(qiáng)自TPP成員國的進(jìn)口,使中國相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)受到負(fù)面影響。 當(dāng)前國內(nèi)外對TPP的研究主要集中在大國動機(jī)、制度特征等方面,而成員國間、成員國與非成員國間具體貿(mào)易關(guān)系變化的研究很少見。因此,本文的創(chuàng)新之處就在于使用引力模型和產(chǎn)品出口相似性指數(shù)具體分析日本加入TPP給中國對日出口帶來的影響。不足之處在于本文的研究是建立在TPP談判能夠成功的基礎(chǔ)之上的,同時由于rPP仍然在不斷地發(fā)展,還會有更多的國家或地區(qū)加入其中,所以,本文的研究結(jié)果可能會與現(xiàn)實(shí)有所出入。此外,限于筆者的研究能力,對該問題的分析尚不夠深入、徹底,還存在進(jìn)一步完善的空間。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis, the recovery of the world economy is weak and the world is struggling to promote economic growth through trade liberalization. Especially since 21th century, bilateral or multilateral free trade agreements have sprung up. Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. TPPs are one of the products in this context. Since 2009, when the United States joined the TPP, the size of the TPP has expanded rapidly. In particular, Japan's entry has greatly expanded the economic strength and influence of the TPP. At present, the number of TPP member countries has reached 12, accounting for 40% of the global total economic volume. The TPP is a high level of free trade agreement, which includes not only trade in goods, but also trade in services, labor, and investment. Therefore, the development of TPP will have a significant impact on the world economy and politics, and will change the way of economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region and even around the world. China, the world's second-largest economy and a major power in the Asia-Pacific region, has not been invited to join, which will inevitably lead China to be affected by the TPP. Japan has been an important trading partner of China, and Sino-Japanese trade relations have made great progress. However, at present, Sino-Japanese trade is affected by many negative factors, and Sino-Japanese free trade zone negotiations have also stalled. However, the purpose and intention of Japan to join TPPs led by the United States is worth studying. This paper is based on the trade structure of Japan and from the perspective of trade transfer. This paper analyzes the impact of China's entry into TPP on China's exports to Japan. The first part briefly introduces the background and significance of the research, the research results at home and abroad, the ideas and contents of the research. Research methods and innovations and shortcomings of this paper: the second part reviews the development of TPP, analyzes its content and characteristics, and studies the background of Japan's entry into TPP from the political and economic aspects; The third part uses a large number of Sino-Japanese trade data, analyzes the current situation of Sino-Japanese trade, and studies the changes of Sino-Japanese trade relations from three aspects: commodity structure, trade status and trade mode. In the 4th part, the mechanism of Japan's entry into TPP on China's exports to Japan is introduced, and the influence on China's exports to Japan is analyzed by panel data gravitation model and product export similarity index. The 5th part is a summary of the above, and combined with the reality that China is facing, put forward targeted suggestions. The research results show that Japan's accession to the TPP has its political and economic considerations. In particular, Japan's entry into the TPP will reduce Japan's dependence on Chinese imports and increase imports from TPP member countries. China's related industries have been adversely affected. At present, the research on TPP is mainly focused on the motivation of big countries, institutional characteristics, and so on, while the research on the change of specific trade relations between member countries and non-member countries is very rare. The innovation of this paper lies in the use of gravitation model and product export similarity index to analyze the impact of Japan's entry into TPP on China's exports to Japan. The shortcoming of this paper is that the research is based on the TPP negotiation. On the basis of success. At the same time, as rPP is still developing, there will be more countries or regions to join, so the research results of this paper may be different from the reality. In addition, limited to the author's research ability. The analysis of the problem is not deep enough, thorough, there is room for further improvement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F744;F752.7

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