本文關(guān)鍵詞： 匯率波動(dòng) 出口二元邊際 傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國已經(jīng)成為世界上最大的工業(yè)品制造商和出口商,在國際貿(mào)易中具有重要的地位,在交易過程中,匯率作為重要的橋梁對(duì)一國的出口有著重要的作用。因此,人民幣匯率發(fā)生變動(dòng)時(shí),中國出口企業(yè)會(huì)受到如何的影響,一直是各方關(guān)注的重點(diǎn),本文將就此展開研究。此外,隨著對(duì)企業(yè)出口的深入研究,大量事實(shí)表明在我國出口企業(yè)中存在著一類特殊的企業(yè),即傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)。傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)在同一商品分類下進(jìn)行雙向貿(mào)易,其特征是自身進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)的同時(shí),出口本身并不生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品。大量數(shù)據(jù)表明,傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)在我國出口貿(mào)易中占據(jù)一定地位,那么傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)存在的優(yōu)勢(shì)是什么,面對(duì)匯率波動(dòng)會(huì)進(jìn)行怎樣調(diào)整,在隨后的實(shí)證中將會(huì)進(jìn)行研究。本文首先從理論分析入手,對(duì)實(shí)證研究中的相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行界定,其中關(guān)于傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)的理論在國內(nèi)研究較少,為此著重對(duì)其進(jìn)行介紹。在此基礎(chǔ)上,回顧關(guān)于企業(yè)出口行為的經(jīng)典理論,即匯率理論和異質(zhì)性貿(mào)易理論,最終結(jié)合經(jīng)典模型及理論分析,構(gòu)建回歸模型。根據(jù)相關(guān)研究,本文提出了2個(gè)假設(shè),假設(shè)匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)于企業(yè)出口產(chǎn)品范圍,出口目的地?cái)?shù)量以及出口產(chǎn)品深度產(chǎn)生全面抑制作用。對(duì)于傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè),在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上,假設(shè)匯率升值會(huì)使得傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)從三個(gè)方面增加傳遞貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品出口。為驗(yàn)證假設(shè),本文選取了工業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫和海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫進(jìn)行匹配蹄選,對(duì)其重要指標(biāo)進(jìn)行計(jì)算,分類以及回歸。最后得到一個(gè)包含159965個(gè)觀測值,涵蓋了2001-2006年的樣本,對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行winsor處理,面板數(shù)據(jù)固定效應(yīng)分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:人民幣匯率升值,對(duì)我國企業(yè)的出口產(chǎn)生全面抑制作用。首先,企業(yè)出口產(chǎn)品范圍下降,這意味著企業(yè)會(huì)集中資源進(jìn)行核心產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)出口,提高了企業(yè)的出口集中度,加速了企業(yè)之間的競爭。同時(shí)產(chǎn)品出口總額下降,出口地?cái)?shù)量下降,出口覆蓋率上升,企業(yè)將面臨全面出口困境。進(jìn)一步,為了對(duì)我國傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)的真實(shí)出口情況進(jìn)行研究,在分析傳遞貿(mào)易企業(yè)出口二元邊際的基礎(chǔ)上,研究在匯率波動(dòng)情況下,其傳遞貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品出口強(qiáng)度的變化,發(fā)現(xiàn)隨著人民幣匯率升值,傳遞貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品出口總額增加,出口種類增加,出口國增加。最后,結(jié)合本文結(jié)論,提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:China has become the largest manufacturer and exporter of industrial products in the world and plays an important role in international trade. In the course of trading, the exchange rate plays an important role in the export of a country as an important bridge. When the RMB exchange rate changes, how the Chinese export enterprises will be affected has always been the focus of attention. This paper will study this issue. In addition, with the in-depth study of enterprise exports. A large number of facts show that there is a special class of enterprises in China's export enterprises, that is, transfer trade enterprises, which carry out two-way trade under the same commodity classification, which is characterized by their own production at the same time. Export itself does not produce products. A large number of data show that the transmission trade enterprises in China's export trade occupies a certain position, so what is the advantage of the transfer trade enterprises. In the face of exchange rate fluctuations how to adjust, in the subsequent empirical study will be carried out. Firstly, this paper starts with theoretical analysis to define the relevant concepts in empirical research. Among them, the theory of transfer trade enterprises is less studied in China, so it focuses on its introduction. On this basis, we review the classical theory of enterprise export behavior, that is, exchange rate theory and heterogeneous trade theory. Finally, combined with the classical model and theoretical analysis, a regression model is constructed. According to the relevant research, this paper puts forward two assumptions, assuming the exchange rate changes for the scope of enterprise export products. The number of export destinations and the depth of export products have a comprehensive inhibitory effect. For the transfer trade enterprises, on the basis of the above research. Assume that exchange rate appreciation will make the transfer trade enterprises increase export from three aspects. In order to verify the hypothesis, this paper selects the industrial enterprise database and the customs database for matching selection. The important indexes were calculated, classified and regressed. Finally, a sample of 159965 observations covering the period of 2001-2006 was obtained, and the data were processed by winsor. Panel data fixed effect analysis. Empirical results show that: the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a comprehensive impact on the export of Chinese enterprises. First, the scope of enterprise export products declined. This means that enterprises will concentrate resources for the production and export of core products, increase the degree of export concentration, accelerate the competition among enterprises, and at the same time, the total export volume of products will decrease, and the number of export places will decrease. With the increase of export coverage, enterprises will face the overall export dilemma. Further, in order to study the real export situation of China's transfer trade enterprises, on the basis of analyzing the dual marginal value of the export of the transfer trade enterprises. In the case of exchange rate fluctuation, the change of export intensity of the transfer trade products is studied. It is found that with the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the total export volume of the transfer trade products increases, the export types increase, and the exporting countries increase. Finally. Combined with the conclusion of this paper, the policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.62

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本文編號(hào)：1460907