本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)石油和光伏電池大國(guó)效應(yīng)的實(shí)證研究　出處：《北方工業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 能源產(chǎn)品 大國(guó)效應(yīng) 市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力 SMR模型 剛性

【摘要】：中國(guó)在國(guó)際能源市場(chǎng)的需求和供給上占有重要地位,卻陷入了貴買(mǎi)和賤賣(mài)的貿(mào)易困境。本文以石油進(jìn)口和光伏電池出口為例,用大國(guó)效應(yīng)的視角對(duì)這種貿(mào)易困境進(jìn)行探究,即進(jìn)出口量變化對(duì)國(guó)際價(jià)格的影響。 首先,本文通過(guò)相關(guān)系數(shù)法和構(gòu)建VAR模型、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)方法證明了中國(guó)在石油進(jìn)口和光伏電池出口上具有大國(guó)效應(yīng),而且這種大國(guó)效應(yīng)還是負(fù)大國(guó)效應(yīng),即中國(guó)進(jìn)口量越大,需求越大,價(jià)格越高；出口量越大,價(jià)格越低。后面章節(jié)對(duì)中國(guó)石油和光伏電池貿(mào)易負(fù)大國(guó)效應(yīng)的原因進(jìn)行探析,從國(guó)際市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力和剛性?xún)蓚�(gè)方面展開(kāi)。 其次,中國(guó)石油進(jìn)口量和光伏電池出口量很大,卻不能引導(dǎo)價(jià)格向自己有利的方向發(fā)展,本文采用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型和SMR模型對(duì)中國(guó)石油進(jìn)口國(guó)際市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力進(jìn)行研究。得出如下結(jié)論：中國(guó)石油進(jìn)口不具有買(mǎi)方市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力,與此同時(shí)還面臨強(qiáng)大的賣(mài)方市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力,這導(dǎo)致中國(guó)在石油進(jìn)口只能接受?chē)?guó)際石油價(jià)格變動(dòng),沒(méi)有談判議價(jià)能力。本文認(rèn)為中國(guó)石油進(jìn)口沒(méi)有國(guó)際市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力,與賣(mài)方集中度高,中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)石油替代品和新能源發(fā)展緩慢有關(guān)。中國(guó)光伏電池核心技術(shù)缺乏及遭遇“雙反”制裁等反映出中國(guó)光伏電池缺乏國(guó)際市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力。 然后,國(guó)際油價(jià)的不斷上漲,中國(guó)石油的進(jìn)口量非但沒(méi)有因?yàn)閮r(jià)格上升而下降,反而隨著價(jià)格上升繼續(xù)增加,光伏電池價(jià)格下降,中國(guó)的出口量卻沒(méi)有下降。本文認(rèn)為這是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)的石油進(jìn)口需求和光伏電池供給具有一定剛性,并對(duì)剛性概念進(jìn)行了界定以及實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。在協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,估計(jì)石油進(jìn)口需求方程和光伏電池供給方程,從而得到中國(guó)石油進(jìn)口需求收入彈性和需求價(jià)格彈性,并且前者大于后者,從而得出中國(guó)石油進(jìn)口需求具有一定剛性的結(jié)論；中國(guó)光伏電池出口彈性大于供給價(jià)格彈性,光伏電池出口具有一定剛性。 最后,根據(jù)實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,在石油貿(mào)易中,提出中國(guó)應(yīng)該通過(guò)技術(shù)手段和經(jīng)濟(jì)手段來(lái)降低剛性,提高市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力；在光伏電池貿(mào)易中,提出增加國(guó)內(nèi)需求,產(chǎn)業(yè)整合,重視技術(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)等建議,以解決中國(guó)能源產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易困境。
[Abstract]:The demand and supply of China in the international energy market is an important position in the international energy market , but it is caught in the trade dilemma of expensive buying and sale . In this paper , taking the oil import and photovoltaic cell export as an example , this paper probes into the dilemma of trade with the view of big country effect , that is , the influence of the change of import and export volume on international price . First , by using correlation coefficient method and constructing VAR model , this paper proves that China has great powers on oil import and photovoltaic cell exports , and the bigger the big country effect is , the higher the demand , the higher the price , the higher the export volume , the lower the price . The later chapter explores the causes of the negative country effect of China ' s oil and photovoltaic cell trade , and develops from the two aspects of international market forces and rigidity . Second , China ' s oil import volume and PV cell export volume are very large , but can not lead the price to develop in a favorable direction , this paper uses the panel data model and SMR model to study the international market forces of China ' s oil import . On the basis of co - integration test , the demand for oil import demand and the supply equation of photovoltaic cell are estimated , and the former is bigger than the latter , so as to conclude that China ' s oil import demand has certain rigidity . The elasticity of PV cell outlet is greater than the supply price elasticity , and the outlet of photovoltaic cell has certain rigidity . Finally , according to the results of the empirical analysis , it is suggested that China should reduce rigidity by means of technical means and economic means to improve the market power . In the photovoltaic cell trade , it is proposed to increase domestic demand , industry integration , attach importance to the development of technology and so on , so as to solve the trade plight of China ' s energy products .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.22;F426.61;F752

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