本文關(guān)鍵詞：TiSA談判背景下中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展研究　出處：《中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： TiSA談判 服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力 協(xié)整和誤差修正模型分析 GTAP模型

【摘要】：21世紀(jì)以來,隨著科技的進(jìn)步和經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的加快,世界服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展迅速,服務(wù)貿(mào)易逐漸成為一國國際競爭力的重要體現(xiàn)。美國和歐盟主導(dǎo)的高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的服務(wù)貿(mào)易談判——TiSA(Trade in Service Agreement,服務(wù)貿(mào)易協(xié)定)談判,其成員服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口額的70%以上,已成為當(dāng)前服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化中最熱門、最有發(fā)展前景的談判。2013年10月,中國正式申請加入TiSA談判。而TiSA談判也將為中國這個(gè)世界服務(wù)貿(mào)易第三大出口國和第二大進(jìn)口國帶來巨大而深遠(yuǎn)的影響。因此,深入研究TiSA談判及其成員的基本情況,科學(xué)分析中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的優(yōu)勢和劣勢,掌握服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放對中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的影響渠道和作用效果,準(zhǔn)確判斷TiSA談判對中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展可能帶來的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn),并據(jù)此制定積極有效的應(yīng)對策略,具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在研究TiSA談判背景下中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展相關(guān)問題時(shí)采用了理論分析與實(shí)證分析、總體分析與結(jié)構(gòu)分析、局部均衡分析與一般均衡分析相結(jié)合的研究方法。將理論先導(dǎo)作用和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)功能融合,通過定性分析和定量測度,對相關(guān)問題進(jìn)行客觀分析研究,力求研究結(jié)果建立在堅(jiān)實(shí)的理論基礎(chǔ)和客觀事實(shí)上。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要表現(xiàn)在:第一,研究視角的創(chuàng)新。作為旨在推動(dòng)服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化的國際談判,TiSA談判會(huì)深刻影響未來國際服務(wù)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,但現(xiàn)在學(xué)術(shù)界對TiSA談判研究的文獻(xiàn)還不多,國內(nèi)外的研究主要是集中在基本情況分析和資料的整理,定量分析也較少。本文結(jié)合現(xiàn)代服務(wù)貿(mào)易理論和現(xiàn)代計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法,研究服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化從不同渠道對中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展的影響,定量分析TiSA談判帶來的影響。第二,TiSA談判是推動(dòng)服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化的國際性談判,服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化可以從促進(jìn)競爭、擴(kuò)大服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放、吸引外商直接投資三個(gè)渠道影響服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力,而國內(nèi)對這方面的研究相對較少。本文運(yùn)用協(xié)整和誤差修正模型進(jìn)行分析,從整體和行業(yè)(以金融、運(yùn)輸、建筑三個(gè)行業(yè)為例)兩個(gè)層次對市場化水平、開放水平、外商直接投資三個(gè)渠道進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),分析其對服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的動(dòng)態(tài)作用規(guī)律和長期影響趨勢。第三,使用一般均衡模型—GTAP模型模擬中國參與TiSA談判的不同路徑,首次以TiSA談判為單獨(dú)變化情境,深入分析TiSA談判對中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的影響以及中國是否加入tisa談判對世界各國的影響。本文共分為七章,各章主要內(nèi)容如下:第一章詳細(xì)分析了研究tisa談判的理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,確定了本文的研究內(nèi)容和使用方法,并對本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和研究不足進(jìn)行了總結(jié)。第二章首先梳理了tisa談判的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),然后介紹了國內(nèi)外服務(wù)貿(mào)易相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的理論和實(shí)證文獻(xiàn),介紹最新研究進(jìn)展,厘清本文研究主題的學(xué)術(shù)基礎(chǔ)。第三章詳細(xì)介紹了tisa談判的背景、現(xiàn)狀、目標(biāo)及未來前景,進(jìn)而分析tisa談判成員服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展情況,然后歸納了tisa談判成員與中國雙邊服務(wù)貿(mào)易情況。第四章對中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行了分析。本章從服務(wù)貿(mào)易整體情況、行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢兩個(gè)角度,研究中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的演進(jìn)過程。通過使用服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭優(yōu)勢指數(shù)、顯示性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)等多項(xiàng)指標(biāo)定量研究服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的發(fā)展演變趨勢,通過服務(wù)貿(mào)易行業(yè)競爭力的行業(yè)分析,探尋了中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力自身發(fā)展特點(diǎn),為分析tisa談判對中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的影響提供研究基礎(chǔ)。第五章為tisa談判背景下服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力影響因素的分析。運(yùn)用單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型分析和脈沖響應(yīng)分析等現(xiàn)代計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法,對服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放影響服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的三個(gè)途徑(增強(qiáng)競爭、促進(jìn)服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放、擴(kuò)大外商直接投資)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,探討了短期和長期效應(yīng)。第六章使用多國(多地區(qū))多部門可比較一般均衡模型——gtap模型,運(yùn)用gtap8數(shù)據(jù)庫和相關(guān)服務(wù)貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù),對中國參與tisa談判的不同路徑進(jìn)行模擬分析,研究tisa談判的貿(mào)易和產(chǎn)業(yè)影響,分析了tisa談判對中國及相關(guān)國家服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展的影響。第七章基于之前的研究進(jìn)行了總結(jié),在充分考慮中國國情并借鑒其他國家經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上提出了相應(yīng)的對策建議。首先,中國應(yīng)該制定適應(yīng)中國國情的服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展策略和政策措施,建立適應(yīng)服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展的管理體系和貿(mào)易促進(jìn)機(jī)制,分層次逐步開放服務(wù)市場,積極參與國際服務(wù)貿(mào)易談判。其次,服務(wù)貿(mào)易企業(yè)也應(yīng)該努力融入世界服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,積極跨國經(jīng)營,打造全球服務(wù)品牌,樹立中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的世界聲譽(yù)。通過研究,本文得到以下結(jié)論:第一,服務(wù)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展、國際金融危機(jī)后發(fā)達(dá)國家復(fù)蘇的需要以及世界貿(mào)易組織框架下服務(wù)貿(mào)易談判的停滯共同催生并推進(jìn)了tisa談判。tisa談判旨在實(shí)現(xiàn)高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化,推動(dòng)國際服務(wù)貿(mào)易新標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的建立。tisa談判成員服務(wù)貿(mào)易總額已達(dá)世界的70%以上。中國主要的服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)口伙伴和服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口目的地均為tisa談判成員。第二,現(xiàn)階段,中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易總量快速增加,但貿(mào)易逆差不斷擴(kuò)大。服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口仍以旅游、運(yùn)輸、建筑為代表的資源、勞動(dòng)密集型服務(wù)貿(mào)易為主,進(jìn)口以與貨物貿(mào)易相關(guān)的和資本技術(shù)密集型服務(wù)為主。通過對服務(wù)貿(mào)易行業(yè)層面的進(jìn)口、出口、差額、國際市場占有率、服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭優(yōu)勢指數(shù)、顯示性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)進(jìn)行測算發(fā)現(xiàn),中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的行業(yè)競爭力基本符合比較優(yōu)勢理論,同時(shí),運(yùn)輸?shù)葌鹘y(tǒng)服務(wù)部門比較優(yōu)勢弱化,計(jì)算機(jī)和信息服務(wù)等部門比較優(yōu)勢顯現(xiàn),資本技術(shù)密集型服務(wù)部門劣勢依舊。第三,從金融業(yè)來看,金融業(yè)競爭的加劇和金融服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放的提高均會(huì)抑制金融服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的提升,而金融業(yè)外商直接投資水平的提高會(huì)促進(jìn)金融服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的增強(qiáng)。運(yùn)輸業(yè)市場化水平與運(yùn)輸服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力呈負(fù)相關(guān),運(yùn)輸服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放水平、運(yùn)輸業(yè)外商直接投資水平則對運(yùn)輸服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力有促進(jìn)作用。建筑業(yè)市場化水平和建筑業(yè)外商直接投資水平均對建筑服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力有正向的促進(jìn)作用。不同行業(yè)中,服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化的三個(gè)渠道對服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的作用效果不同,也導(dǎo)致了在整體方面,服務(wù)業(yè)市場化水平、服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放水平、服務(wù)業(yè)外商直接投資與服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力沒有長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系。服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化通過三個(gè)渠道會(huì)影響服務(wù)貿(mào)易的結(jié)構(gòu)。第四,由gtap模型模擬結(jié)果可知,tisa談判成功會(huì)促進(jìn)其成員的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,提高社會(huì)福利,帶動(dòng)進(jìn)出口額的增加;其中美國受益最大,而世界其它國家的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)福利則會(huì)下降。tisa談判成功,對不同國家服務(wù)行業(yè)的影響存在差異:美國是唯一所有服務(wù)行業(yè)競爭力均得到增強(qiáng)的國家,主要發(fā)達(dá)國家優(yōu)勢行業(yè)的競爭力將進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)。tisa談判的發(fā)展中成員各行業(yè)的競爭力則會(huì)普遍下降。世界其它國家各服務(wù)行業(yè)的競爭力也普遍被削弱。從總體來說,如果中國加入tisa談判,tisa談判的成功將對中國產(chǎn)生貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng),推動(dòng)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和社會(huì)福利增加;中國各服務(wù)行業(yè)的進(jìn)出口均會(huì)快速增長,建筑、公共事業(yè)等中國具有比較優(yōu)勢的行業(yè)競爭力繼續(xù)增強(qiáng),金融、運(yùn)輸?shù)染哂斜容^劣勢的行業(yè)競爭力繼續(xù)減弱,中國服務(wù)行業(yè)的專業(yè)化增強(qiáng)。如果中國未加入tisa談判,tisa談判的成功對中國將主要產(chǎn)生貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng),抑制中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,導(dǎo)致社會(huì)福利下降。各服務(wù)行業(yè)的進(jìn)出口均會(huì)出現(xiàn)下滑,貿(mào)易平衡繼續(xù)惡化,各行業(yè)競爭力也繼續(xù)減弱。tisa談判成功后,如果中國加入tisa談判,對談判成員各服務(wù)行業(yè)的進(jìn)口和出口均有促進(jìn)作用。中國的加入會(huì)使法國、德國、西班牙的公共事業(yè)和建筑的貿(mào)易余額增加量減少,而對所有tisa談判成員其它行業(yè)的貿(mào)易平衡改善均有促進(jìn)作用。中國的加入對TiSA談判成員總體上均有利。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, with the progress of science and technology and the acceleration of economic globalization, the rapid development of world service trade, service trade has become an important embodiment of the international competitiveness of a country. The United States and the European Union led a high standard of service trade negotiations, TiSA (Trade in Service Agreement, the service trade agreement negotiations), more than the amount of import and export trade in services to its members 70%, the liberalization of trade in services has become the current most popular, the most promising.2013 negotiations in October, formally applied to join the TiSA negotiations. China TiSA negotiations will also Chinese the world service trade's third largest exporter and second largest importer has brought great and far-reaching influence. Therefore, the basic situation in depth study on TiSA negotiation and its members, scientific analysis China service trade advantages and disadvantages, grasp the influence of channel and effect of Chinese service trade liberalization of trade in services, Accurately determine the TiSA negotiations on trade in services Chinese development may bring opportunities and challenges, and make positive and effective coping strategies, has important theoretical significance and practical significance. Based on the study of the TiSA negotiations under the background of China service trade development issues related to the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, overall analysis and structural analysis, research the method of partial equilibrium analysis and general equilibrium analysis of the combination. The guiding role and empirical function integration, through qualitative analysis and quantitative measurement, objective analysis and Research on related issues, and the research results based on a solid theoretical basis and objective facts. The innovation of this thesis lies in: first, innovative research from the perspective of international negotiations. As to promote service trade liberalization, TiSA negotiations will profoundly affect the future development of the international trade in services, but now in school Academic research literature on TiSA negotiation is not much, the research at home and abroad are mainly focused on the analysis of basic situation and data, quantitative analysis is less. This combination of modern service trade theory and modern econometric methods, the research of service trade liberalization from the influence of different channels on the China service trade development, quantitative analysis the negotiation of TiSA. Second, TiSA negotiation is to promote international service trade liberalization negotiations, the liberalization of trade in services from promoting competition, expanding the service trade openness, attract foreign direct investment three channels influence the competitiveness of trade in services, while domestic research in this area is relatively less. This paper uses cointegration and error correction model analysis of overall and industry (in finance, transportation, building three industries for example) two levels of the market level, the level of opening up, foreign direct investment channel three For the empirical test, analysis of the competitiveness of service trade dynamic effect rule and the long-term impact of the trend. In third, using a general equilibrium model - GTAP model to simulate the different paths of China participation in the TiSA negotiations, for the first time in the TiSA negotiations as a separate change situation, in-depth analysis of the TiSA impact on the judgment on the China service trade and the influence of TiSA China whether the negotiations on the world. This paper is divided into seven chapters, the main contents of each chapter are as follows: the first chapter makes a detailed analysis of the theoretical significance and practical significance of the TiSA negotiations, determine the content of this article and method of use, and lack of innovation and research paper are summarized. The second chapter reviews the relevant literature the TiSA negotiations, and then introduced the domestic and foreign related field of service trade in theoretical and empirical literature, introduces the latest research progress, to clarify the academic basis of this paper. The theme of the article The three chapter introduces the TiSA negotiation background, status, goals and future prospects, and then analyzing the development of members of the TiSA negotiations on trade in services, and then summed up the members of the TiSA negotiations and China bilateral service trade. The fourth chapter current situation and development trend of service trade competitiveness Chinese was analyzed. This chapter from the overall situation of trade in services. Two aspects of the development trend of the industry, the evolution process of Chinese research on the competitiveness of service trade. Through the use of service trade competitiveness index, revealed comparative advantage index and other index of quantitative study on the development of service trade competitiveness evolution trend, through the competitiveness of service trade industry analysis, to explore the competitiveness of service trade Chinese provide their own development characteristics. The research foundation for the analysis of the influence of TiSA on the competitiveness of service trade negotiations Chinese. The fifth chapter is the TiSA negotiations under the background of service trade Yi Jing Analysis of the factors affecting competitiveness. By using unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model and impulse response analysis of modern econometric methods such as three ways of service trade competitiveness influence on Service Trade Openness (enhanced competition, promote service trade openness, expand foreign direct investment) by empirical analysis, discusses the short-term and the long-term effect. The sixth chapter uses multi (multi area) comparison of general equilibrium model: GTAP model of multi departments, using the gtap8 database and related services trade data of Chinese participation in the TiSA negotiations with the path for simulation analysis, research the TiSA negotiations on Trade and industry influence, analyzed the effect of TiSA on Chinese negotiation and the relevant state the development of service trade. The seventh chapter is based on the previous research are summarized, and based on the experience of other countries in full consideration on the current situation and put forward China Suggestions. First, China should be developed to adapt to the situation of China service trade development strategy and policy measures, to set up the development of service trade management system and trade promotion mechanism, hierarchical gradually open the service market, and actively participate in international negotiations on trade in services. Second, the service trade enterprises should also strive to integrate into the world service industry chain. Active transnational business, to create a global service brand, establish China service trade reputation in the world. Through the research, this paper obtained the following conclusions: first, the development of the service trade, the international financial crisis in developed countries after the recovery and the need of the World Trade Organization under the framework of stalled negotiations on trade in services and promote the birth of the common TiSA.Tisa aims to achieve high the standard of service trade liberalization, promote the establishment of a new international standard.Tisa service trade negotiation members of the general service trade volume has reached the world More than 70% circles. Chinese main service trade import and export trade in services to partners are members of the TiSA negotiations. Second, at this stage, the rapid increase in China total service trade, but the trade deficit continues to expand. Service trade is still in tourism, transportation, building as the representative of the resources, labor intensive service trade. Import related to trade in goods and capital and technology intensive service. Through imports, level of trade in service export, balance, international market share, service trade competitiveness index, revealed comparative advantage index calculations showed that the Chinese service trade industry competitiveness basically conforms to the theory of comparative advantage, at the same time, the weakening of comparison the advantage of the traditional service department of transportation, revealed comparative advantage of computer and information services, capital and technology intensive service sectors in the old weaknesses. Third, from the financial In view of the fierce competition of the financial industry and financial services trade liberalization will improve suppression of financial service trade competitiveness promotion, while foreign direct investment will increase the level of financial industry to promote the competitiveness of financial service trade is negatively related to the transportation industry. The level of the market competitiveness of service trade and transportation, open service trade transportation, transportation the level of FDI has positive effect on the competitiveness of service trade in transportation construction industry. The level of the market and the construction of foreign direct investment have positive role in promoting the competitiveness of construction service trade. In different industries, different three channels of service trade liberalization of service trade competitiveness effect, also led to the on the whole, the level of market services, service trade openness, foreign direct investment of service industry and service trade competitiveness is not long Stable relationship. The liberalization of trade in services through three channels will affect the structure of service trade. By fourth, the GTAP model simulation results show that TiSA can promote the successful negotiation of members of the economic growth, improve social welfare, promote the increase of import and export; the United States and other countries in the world the biggest benefit, the overall economic and social welfare it will fall.Tisa the success of the negotiations, have different effects on the service industry in different countries: the United States is the only all service industry competitiveness can be enhanced in the country, major developed countries competitive advantage of the industry will further enhance the development of the.Tisa negotiations in each member of the competitiveness of the industry will decline. The service industry in other countries the competitiveness is widely weakened. In general, if Chinese TiSA to join the TiSA negotiations, the success of the negotiations will produce trade creation effect to China, push China The economic development and social welfare increase; the service industry Chinese import and export will be rapid growth, construction, public utilities and other Chinese has a comparative advantage in the competitiveness of the industry continues to strengthen, financial, transportation is relatively inferior industry competitiveness continued to weaken, strengthen professional Chinese services. If Chinese did not join the TiSA negotiations, TiSA the success of the negotiations on China will mainly produce trade diversion effect, inhibition of Chinese economic development, lead to social welfare decline. The service industry's import and export will decline, trade balance continues to deteriorate, the competitiveness of the industry will continue to weaken.Tisa after a successful negotiation, if China to join the TiSA negotiations, the negotiating members import and service industry exports were promoted. Chinese added that France, Germany, Spain's public utilities and building the trade balance and to reduce the amount of increase, all about TiSA The improvement of trade balance in other sectors of the members has been promoted. China's accession is generally favorable to the TiSA negotiators.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.68
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本文編號：1374283