本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于DEA方法的P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺運行效率與風(fēng)險研究　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融 P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺 DEA 風(fēng)險管理

【摘要】：近幾年來,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)及現(xiàn)代通信技術(shù)的快速更新,推動了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的蓬勃發(fā)展,而其中尤以P2P網(wǎng)貸、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)移動支付、眾籌融資等為代表。根據(jù)網(wǎng)貸之家2016年1月8日發(fā)布的((2015年中國網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)年報》公布的數(shù)據(jù),截至2015年12月31日,網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)累計運營平臺家數(shù)達(dá)到了2595家,累計成交量已達(dá)到14956.15億元。傳統(tǒng)的金融業(yè)態(tài)正在被互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融獨特的價值創(chuàng)造方式和經(jīng)營模式所影響,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融已經(jīng)逐漸變成萬眾金融體系中不容小覷的新興力量。而專家學(xué)者、政府監(jiān)管層、金融管理部門、社會大眾及業(yè)界人士在開始廣泛關(guān)注互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的同時也產(chǎn)生了許多爭議。中國的P2P網(wǎng)貸行業(yè),由于東西部經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不均衡的現(xiàn)實原因,各地區(qū)的增長速度、規(guī)模大小、風(fēng)險特征都呈現(xiàn)出不同的特點。2015年,廣東省、山東省、北京市三個地區(qū)平臺數(shù)量就占據(jù)了中國總平臺數(shù)量的42.66%,這表明中國的P2P網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)在各地區(qū)的發(fā)展水平存在不均衡的現(xiàn)象,呈現(xiàn)出集中化的趨勢。同時,出現(xiàn)問題的P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺也主要集中在山東、上海、廣東、浙江、北京這些地區(qū),這五個地區(qū)的問題平臺家數(shù)在2015年所有的問題平臺家數(shù)中所占的比例達(dá)到了60.16%。在激烈的行業(yè)競爭和經(jīng)濟低速增長的形勢下,P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺要想立于不敗之地,必須提高平臺的核心競爭力,而平臺的核心競爭力集中體現(xiàn)在經(jīng)營效率上。因此,正確認(rèn)識P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺的投入產(chǎn)出效率,找出影響平臺經(jīng)營效率的因素,對于P2P平臺提升行業(yè)競爭力,提高運營水平,實現(xiàn)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文結(jié)合中國中西部發(fā)展差異化的現(xiàn)實特征,對不同區(qū)域的P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺運營家數(shù)以及不同地區(qū)問題平臺的風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了分類統(tǒng)計,以研究中國不同地區(qū)P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺的效率與風(fēng)險。本文選取截至2015年年底P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺運營家數(shù)排名前7的省市,分別使用DEA模型和熵值法對P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺運行效率及風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行分析和探究,最終結(jié)合效率評價及風(fēng)險評價對所選地區(qū)的P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性綜合評價,在此基礎(chǔ)上,對綜合評價靠后的地區(qū)進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步分析,以期以此為基礎(chǔ),對中國網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)未來的健康發(fā)展提供可行性建議。本文的主要內(nèi)容安排如下：第一章為緒論部分,主要對本文的選題背景和意義進(jìn)行了闡述,并在歸納前人的相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了本文的研究思路和研究方法。第二章對中國P2P網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀及問題進(jìn)行了概述,主要內(nèi)容包括P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺的概念及意義、行業(yè)的發(fā)展及現(xiàn)狀、主要運營模式、現(xiàn)存問題以及中國P2P網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)未來的發(fā)展方向。第三章、第四章為本文的實證部分,其中第三章選取中國P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺排名前7的地區(qū),挑選每個地區(qū)按網(wǎng)貸之家綜合指數(shù)排名前20的平臺,共140個樣本,選取平均利率、借款期限作為投入指標(biāo),成交量和投資人數(shù)／借款人數(shù)作為產(chǎn)出指標(biāo),使用DEA模型,對這140個樣本的經(jīng)營效率進(jìn)行分析,之后計算各地區(qū)綜合技術(shù)效率的平均值,最終的排名依次為北京、廣東、上海、浙江、湖北、山東、四川。第四章則將效率與風(fēng)險相結(jié)合對所選地區(qū)進(jìn)行綜合評價,截取了中國P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺中2014年1月1日至2015年1月31日的問題平臺數(shù)據(jù),并按地區(qū)及問題類型進(jìn)行分類,使用熵值法對提現(xiàn)困難、詐騙跑路、停業(yè)這三類問題進(jìn)行賦權(quán)并分別計算各個地區(qū)的風(fēng)險評價,之后根據(jù)分析結(jié)果對該七個地區(qū)進(jìn)行綜合評價,綜合考慮風(fēng)險和效率,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,對綜合評價靠后的地區(qū)進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步分析,以期以此為基礎(chǔ),對中國網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)未來的健康發(fā)展提供可行性建議。第五章為本文的結(jié)果與展望部分,基于本文的實證研究,對中國P2P網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)目前存在的發(fā)展問題及未來的發(fā)展方向進(jìn)行了歸納總結(jié)。P2P網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展,不僅要考慮其效率,更要關(guān)注潛在的風(fēng)險,本文經(jīng)過實證研究,提出建議如下：首先,在品牌建設(shè)方面,平臺應(yīng)該維持良好的形象和商譽,良好的品牌形象的企業(yè)的軟實力,有助于平臺吸引優(yōu)質(zhì)的借款人和投資人。其次,在綜合利率方面,平臺應(yīng)該從自身的負(fù)債端和資產(chǎn)端出發(fā),確定合理的收益率,為了爭奪客戶盲目提高收益率的行為不利于平臺的長期發(fā)展,對于P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺的拆標(biāo)行為,應(yīng)該加強監(jiān)管,防范拆標(biāo)行為引發(fā)的流動性風(fēng)險,控制超短期產(chǎn)品的發(fā)行數(shù)量,防范因為資金鏈斷裂而出現(xiàn)跑路的情況。通過與銀行類金融機構(gòu)合作,對用戶資金或平臺本身的風(fēng)險準(zhǔn)備金進(jìn)行托管,對風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了隔離,可以很大程度上控制平臺擅自挪用客戶資金導(dǎo)致的操作風(fēng)險。本文認(rèn)為P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺的未來發(fā)展有以下幾個方向：首先,未來P2P網(wǎng)貸行業(yè)的準(zhǔn)入門檻將會提高,目前P2P準(zhǔn)入門檻比較低,例如山東省聚集大量資質(zhì)不突出的平臺也是山東省P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺風(fēng)險最高的原因之一。注冊資本雖然不是評價平臺好壞的決定性指標(biāo),但是在一定程度上也可以反映平臺的股東實力和經(jīng)營能力,設(shè)置適當(dāng)?shù)淖再Y本門檻,可以過濾掉實力較差的平臺,保護(hù)投資者利益。2015年發(fā)布的P2P監(jiān)管征求意見稿,雖然未對P2P平臺設(shè)置門檻,但是要求P2P平臺必須選擇符合條件的銀行業(yè)金融機構(gòu)對資金進(jìn)行托管,而銀行作為資金存管機構(gòu)對P2P平臺注冊資本的限制無疑為P2P行業(yè)設(shè)定了隱形門檻。其次,對P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺的用戶資金或者風(fēng)險準(zhǔn)備金進(jìn)行托管可以很大程度上控制其風(fēng)險,托管方主要是商業(yè)銀行,但是無論是對用戶資金進(jìn)行托管還是對風(fēng)險準(zhǔn)備金進(jìn)行托管,由于托管賬戶仍然屬于P2P企業(yè),因此還是存在較大的風(fēng)險。從控制風(fēng)險的角度出發(fā),本文認(rèn)為未來的資金托管模式將向全部資金交由銀行托管的模式轉(zhuǎn)變,即借貸雙方都在銀行開戶,銀行則根據(jù)雙方發(fā)出的指令進(jìn)行資金劃轉(zhuǎn),這樣用戶的資金與P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺獨立開來,實現(xiàn)了資金在用戶之間的直接流動。采用這種模式,即使平臺出現(xiàn)資金問題,對投資者也不會產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重影響。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid update of Internet technology and modern communication technology, promoted the rapid development of Internet banking, and especially in the P2P net loan, Internet mobile payment, such as public financing as a representative. According to the net loan home released in January 8, 2016 (Chinese (2015 net loan industry report "published data, as of in December 31, 2015, net loan industry total operating platform number reached 2595, the cumulative turnover has reached 1 trillion and 495 billion 615 million yuan. The traditional financial industry is the Internet Financial unique value creation mode and operation mode of Internet banking has gradually become the financial system should not be underestimated. The emerging power of scholars and experts, government regulators and the financial management department, the public and the industry at the beginning of widespread concern of Internet banking also caused many disputes. China P2P net loan industry, because of something The Ministry of economic development is not balanced reality, all regions of the growth rate, size, risk characteristics are showing different characteristics in.2015, Guangdong Province, Shandong Province, Beijing City area three platform number will occupy the number of total Chinese platform 42.66%, which indicates that P2P net loan industry in various regions of the China the level of development are not balanced phenomenon, showing a centralized trend. At the same time, P2P net loan platform problems are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Beijing these areas, the number of platform of the five regions accounted for in 2015 the number of all the platforms in proportion to low growth 60.16%. intense competition in the industry and economic situation, P2P net loan platform to be in an invincible position, we must improve the core competitiveness of the platform, and the core competitiveness of the platform is embodied in the business efficiency. Therefore, it Understanding of P2P net loan platform input-output efficiency, identify the factors affecting the operating efficiency of the platform, to enhance the competitiveness of the industry P2P platform, improve operational level, has important practical significance to achieve sustainable and healthy development. Combining with the characteristics of reality Chinese western development differentiation, P2P net loan platform operators in different regions and the number of platform the problem of risk factors in different areas were classified and to study the efficiency and risk of China in different regions of P2P net loan platform. This paper selected by the end of 2015, P2P net loan platform operation the number of the top 7 provinces and cities, respectively, to analyze and study the efficiency and risk factors of P2P net loan platform using DEA model and entropy method finally, combining efficiency evaluation and risk assessment of comprehensive evaluation system of P2P net loan platform for the selected area, on the basis of comprehensive evaluation on the area of For further analysis, in order to provide basis and feasible suggestions on China net loan industry healthy development in the future. The main contents of this paper are as follows: the first chapter is the introduction part, mainly on the background and significance are expounded, and based on the summary of the previous related research, put forward the research ideas and the research methods of this paper. The second chapter is the status quo and problems of Chinese P2P net loan industry are summarized, the main contents include the concept and significance of P2P net loan platform, the status and development of the industry, the main mode of operation, existing problems and China P2P net loan industry in the future direction of development. The third chapter, the fourth chapter is the empirical part of this paper, the third chapter selects Chinese P2P top 7 of the net loan platform area, select each region according to the net loan home index of the top 20 of the platform, a total of 140 samples, the average interest rate selection, The loan period as input indicators, the number of the volume and the number of investment / borrowing as output indicators, using DEA model, analysis of 140 samples of the operating efficiency, the average technical efficiency of each area after calculating the comprehensive value of the final ranking followed by Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hubei, Shandong, Sichuan, the fourth chapter. The efficiency and risk of the combination evaluation of the selected area, the problem of data interception Chinese platform P2P net loan platform from January 1, 2014 to January 31, 2015, according to the area and problems of classification, using entropy method to cash difficulties, fraud for the three kinds of problems run away, empower and calculate risk assessment of each after the area, according to the analysis results of the seven areas of comprehensive evaluation, considering the risk and efficiency, and on this basis, the comprehensive evaluation on the region into a Further analysis, in order to provide basis and feasible suggestions on China net loan industry healthy development in the future. The fifth chapter is the empirical research results and outlook section, based on the existing problems of the development of China P2P net loan industry and the future development direction for the healthy development of.P2P net loan summary summary the industry, not only to consider the efficiency, we must pay more attention to the potential risks, this paper through the empirical research, some suggestions are put forward as follows: firstly, in brand building, the platform should maintain good image and reputation, the soft power of a good brand image of the enterprise, help the platform to attract high-quality borrowers and investors secondly. In general, the interest rate, the platform should start from their own assets and liabilities side end, determine a reasonable rate of return, in order to compete for customers blindly increase the rate of return behavior is disadvantageous to long-term development platform, to In the demolition of the standard behavior of P2P net loan platform, should strengthen supervision, prevention and liquidity risk caused by the action of standard, control the number of ultra short term products issue, to prevent because of funding strand breaks and run away situation. Through the cooperation with the banking financial institutions, trust funds or user platform itself the risk reserve the risk of isolation, can largely control the operational risk of unauthorized use of customer funds to the platform. This paper argues that the following direction of the future development of P2P net loan platform: first of all, the future of P2P net loan industry access threshold will be increased, the P2P access threshold is relatively low, such as Shandong province gathered a large number of qualification is not prominent the platform in Shandong province is the highest risk P2P net loan platform registered capital of one of the reasons. Although not decisive evaluation platform quality index, but also can reflect to a certain extent The platform of shareholder strength and ability to set the appropriate threshold of registered capital, can filter out the poor strength of the platform, P2P regulation to protect the interests of investors.2015 issued draft, although not on the P2P platform to set the threshold, but P2P platform must choose the banking financial institutions eligible for the funds custodian bank, and as the funds depository institutions for P2P platform registered capital limit is P2P industry set invisible threshold. Secondly, the P2P net loan platform user trust fund or risk reserve can control the risk in a large extent, the trustee is the main commercial banks, but whether it is for the user of funds managed or managed to risk reserve, due to the escrow account still belongs to P2P company, so there is still a big risk. Starting from the angle of risk control, this article considers the future Will all the money to the funds managed mode by mode change the trust bank, namely borrowing both in the bank account, the bank will transfer funds according to the instructions issued by the user, such funds and P2P net loan platform independent, the funds between users in a direct flow. Using this model, even if the platform appears the money problem, investors also have a serious impact.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F724.6;F832.4

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