【摘要】：2008年全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)使全球金融體系的穩(wěn)定性和安全性受到了嚴(yán)重破壞,影子銀行被認(rèn)為是此次危機(jī)爆發(fā)的主要推手因而受到了各界的廣泛關(guān)注,對(duì)影子銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性和監(jiān)管問(wèn)題成為了各監(jiān)管當(dāng)局討論的熱點(diǎn)議題。雖然此次金融危機(jī)對(duì)中國(guó)的沖擊較小,但是也刺激了中國(guó)影子銀行體系及業(yè)務(wù)的快速發(fā)展。近幾年來(lái),中國(guó)的影子銀行呈現(xiàn)爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng),在發(fā)展的過(guò)程中對(duì)補(bǔ)充以商業(yè)銀行為主的傳統(tǒng)金融體系、豐富居民投資渠道、活躍實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)都存在積極的影響。但是由于中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融環(huán)境具有獨(dú)特性,中國(guó)的影子銀行在表現(xiàn)形式、運(yùn)行機(jī)制等方面都與西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家存在很大的不同,隨著中國(guó)影子銀行體系的機(jī)構(gòu)和業(yè)務(wù)越來(lái)越復(fù)雜,隱藏的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也開(kāi)始逐漸公開(kāi)化和表面化,引起了國(guó)內(nèi)外的多方擔(dān)憂。在這樣的環(huán)境下,有必要對(duì)中國(guó)影子銀行體系的雙重效應(yīng)進(jìn)行探究,合理有效引導(dǎo)積極效應(yīng)的發(fā)揮,并對(duì)可能產(chǎn)生的消極影響提出相應(yīng)的治理建議。本文遵循理論基礎(chǔ)、現(xiàn)狀、效應(yīng)和治理的思路,運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)、圖表和實(shí)證分析等方法進(jìn)行研究。首先對(duì)影子銀行的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行梳理,主要包括國(guó)內(nèi)外研究綜述及其一般性概念、特征和作用機(jī)理等；其次,介紹了中國(guó)影子銀行體系的現(xiàn)狀,從產(chǎn)生原因、特征、表現(xiàn)形式等方面對(duì)中國(guó)影子銀行的成因、性質(zhì)和規(guī)模進(jìn)行全面描述,同時(shí)介紹了中國(guó)目前的金融監(jiān)管現(xiàn)狀和近期影子銀行監(jiān)管政策以及存在的問(wèn)題；再次,采用理論和實(shí)證相結(jié)合的方式對(duì)中國(guó)影子銀行體系的雙重效應(yīng)進(jìn)行具體的分析,從理論的角度闡述了中國(guó)影子銀行體系的積極效應(yīng)和消極效應(yīng),并根據(jù)理論分析的結(jié)果建立VAR模型分析影子銀行體系對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、貨幣政策有效性和金融穩(wěn)定性的影響；最后,根據(jù)以上的現(xiàn)狀闡述和效應(yīng)分析對(duì)中國(guó)影子銀行體系提出具有可行性和有效性的治理建議。通過(guò)本文的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)影子銀行體系是把“雙刃劍”,一方面可以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、完善金融體系建設(shè)、推動(dòng)利率市場(chǎng)化的進(jìn)程,另一方面又會(huì)削弱貨幣政策效果、威脅傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)銀行、加劇流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和使信貸過(guò)度膨脹。實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明影子銀行體系對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有一定的正效應(yīng),同時(shí)對(duì)貨幣政策的有效性和金融穩(wěn)定性有負(fù)向作用,進(jìn)一步證明了中國(guó)影子銀行體系存在雙重效應(yīng)。鑒于此,本文提出了六個(gè)政策建議,包括形成治理理念、完善金融監(jiān)管協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制、加強(qiáng)影子銀行體系的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控、推進(jìn)基礎(chǔ)配套機(jī)制建設(shè)、健全法律體系和推動(dòng)金融體制改革,希望通過(guò)加強(qiáng)治理來(lái)引導(dǎo)中國(guó)影子銀行體系的健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has seriously undermined the stability and safety of the global financial system, and shadow banking is considered to be the main driver of the outbreak of the crisis, so it has received extensive attention from all walks of life. The risk and regulation of shadow banking has become a hot topic discussed by various regulatory authorities. Although the impact of the financial crisis on China is relatively small, but also stimulated the rapid development of China's shadow banking system and business. In recent years, China's shadow banking has shown explosive growth. In the process of development, it has a positive impact on supplementing the traditional financial system dominated by commercial banks, enriching the channels of residents' investment, and activating the real economy. However, due to the uniqueness of China's economic and financial environment, China's shadow banking is very different from western developed countries in its form of expression and operating mechanism. As the institutions and operations of China's shadow banking system become more and more complex, Hidden risks also began to gradually open and surface, causing many worries at home and abroad. Under such circumstances, it is necessary to probe into the double effects of China's shadow banking system, reasonably and effectively guide the development of positive effects, and put forward corresponding governance suggestions for possible negative effects. This paper follows the theoretical basis, current situation, effects and governance ideas, using data, charts and empirical analysis methods to carry on the research. Firstly, the related theories of shadow banking are combed, mainly including domestic and foreign research review and its general concept, characteristics and mechanism of action, etc. Secondly, this paper introduces the present situation of China's shadow banking system, and comprehensively describes the causes, nature and scale of China's shadow banking from the aspects of the causes, characteristics, forms of expression and so on. At the same time, it introduces the current situation of financial supervision in China, the recent shadow banking regulatory policy and the existing problems. Thirdly, the double effects of China's shadow banking system are analyzed by combining theoretical and empirical methods, and the positive and negative effects of China's shadow banking system are expounded from the theoretical point of view. According to the results of theoretical analysis, a VAR model is established to analyze the impact of shadow banking system on China's economic development, monetary policy effectiveness and financial stability. Finally, according to the present situation and effect analysis, this paper puts forward some feasible and effective governance suggestions for China's shadow banking system. Through the research of this paper, we find that the shadow banking system of China is a double-edged sword, on the one hand, it can promote economic development, perfect the construction of financial system, promote the process of interest rate marketization, on the other hand, it will weaken the effect of monetary policy. Threatening traditional commercial banks, exacerbating liquidity risks and overinflating credit. The empirical results show that the shadow banking system has a certain positive effect on economic growth, and has a negative effect on the effectiveness of monetary policy and financial stability, which further proves the existence of double effects in China's shadow banking system. In view of this, this paper puts forward six policy suggestions, including forming governance concept, perfecting financial supervision and coordination mechanism, strengthening risk prevention and control of shadow banking system, promoting the construction of basic supporting mechanism, perfecting the legal system and promoting the reform of financial system. Hope to strengthen governance to guide the healthy development of China's shadow banking system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.3

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