【摘要】：貨幣政策是一國反經(jīng)濟周期、實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長的重要手段，尤其在金融危機或經(jīng)濟過熱時期更是如此。然而，中央銀行改變貨幣供給量、調(diào)整利率等政策手段能否順利地實現(xiàn)既定的宏觀經(jīng)濟運行目標卻取決于貨幣政策的傳導過程。在此過程中，居民、企業(yè)、商業(yè)銀行和地方政府等微觀主體在貨幣政策信號作用下的最優(yōu)化行為是否與中央銀行的政策目標相一致是影響貨幣政策傳導效應的關鍵。如果各微觀主體行為選擇的不一致體現(xiàn)在不同區(qū)域、不同產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的話，將導致貨幣政策產(chǎn)生區(qū)域效應、產(chǎn)業(yè)效應等結(jié)構(gòu)效應，這不僅會降低貨幣政策的調(diào)控效果，還會進一步拉大不同區(qū)域、不同產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的發(fā)展差距。因此，研究貨幣政策結(jié)構(gòu)效應的微觀基礎及形成機理具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義！ 為說明中國貨幣政策結(jié)構(gòu)效應的微觀基礎及形成機理，從而構(gòu)建協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的中國貨幣政策操作框架：首先，本文根據(jù)貨幣政策傳導理論的發(fā)展脈絡，對貨幣政策傳導的非對稱效應、區(qū)域效應、產(chǎn)業(yè)效應等進行了理論梳理，在理論分析的基礎上，，結(jié)合中國實際經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)，運用LSTVAR模型和SVAR模型對中國貨幣政策傳導的非對稱效應、區(qū)域效應、產(chǎn)業(yè)效應等進行了實證檢驗，表明中國貨幣政策存在結(jié)構(gòu)效應，為研究中國貨幣政策結(jié)構(gòu)效應的微觀機理奠定了基礎；其次，從理論上分析了居民、企業(yè)、商業(yè)銀行、以及地方政府在貨幣政策傳導過程中的微觀主體行為，并著重分析了居民的效用最大化、企業(yè)的成本最小化、商業(yè)銀行的利潤最大化以及地方政府的社會福利最大化行為等對貨幣政策結(jié)構(gòu)效應的影響；再次，分別構(gòu)建了具有消費習慣偏好的新凱恩斯主義DSGE模型、具有名義粘性的新凱恩斯主義DSGE模型、以及具有金融加速器效應的新凱恩斯主義DSGE模型，并運用貝葉斯估計方法與數(shù)值模擬技術對中國貨幣政策的非對稱效應、區(qū)域效應、以及產(chǎn)業(yè)效應的微觀機理進行模擬分析，從而在微觀層面說明了中國貨幣政策結(jié)構(gòu)效應的形成原因；最后，根據(jù)實證檢驗結(jié)論和模擬分析結(jié)果，從降低居民消費習慣偏好、降低企業(yè)投資粘性、推進金融市場化改革、推進政府財稅體制改革等微觀層面提出了政策建議，同時，也提出了促進中國經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的宏觀調(diào)控改革措施，如保持貨幣政策定力、采用平滑微調(diào)政策、實施差別化貨幣政策、以及加強貨幣政策與財政政策的協(xié)調(diào)配套等。 通過對中國貨幣政策結(jié)構(gòu)效應的微觀基礎及協(xié)調(diào)性政策的研究，得到如下創(chuàng)新性的結(jié)論。如居民消費習慣偏好過高是導致中國貨幣政策非對稱效應的主要原因；地方政府投資沖動是導致中國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應的重要原因；企業(yè)投資粘性則是導致中國貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)效應的重要原因。并提出了“企業(yè)投資粘性”的概念，將“粘性”理論擴展到投資領域，分析了企業(yè)投資粘性的形成機理和治理對策。在進行宏觀調(diào)控體系優(yōu)化設計時，引入了“貨幣政策定力”概念，并就該概念進行了計量公式和影響因素等方面的探討。為中國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的貨幣政策操作提供了有益的參考。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is an important means of the country's anti-economic cycle and the sustained and steady growth of the economy, especially during the financial crisis or the economic overheating period. However, whether the central bank can change the monetary supply amount, adjust the interest rate and other policy means can smoothly realize the established macro-economic operation target depends on the conduction process of the monetary policy. In this process, whether the optimization of the micro-subjects such as the resident, the enterprise, the commercial bank and the local government is consistent with the policy objective of the central bank is the key to the monetary policy transmission effect. If the non-conformity of the various micro-subject behaviors is reflected in different regions and between different industries, it will lead to the structural effects such as regional effect and industrial effect of the monetary policy, which not only can reduce the regulation effect of the monetary policy, but also further widen the different regions, The development gap between different industries. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the micro-base and formation mechanism of the monetary policy structure effect. In order to explain the micro-base and formation mechanism of China's monetary policy structure effect, it is necessary to construct a coordinated development China's monetary policy operation framework: first, this paper based on the development of the monetary policy conduction theory, the asymmetric effect of the conduction of monetary policy, the regional effect Based on the theoretical analysis, the asymmetric effect, regional effect and industrial effect of China's monetary policy transmission have been tested by means of the LSTVAR model and the SVAR model based on the theoretical analysis. The results show that China's monetary policy has a structural effect, which lays a foundation for studying the micro-mechanism of the structure effect of the monetary policy in China. In order to maximize the utility of the residents, minimize the cost of the enterprise, the maximum profit of the commercial bank and the social welfare of the local government, the effect of the monetary policy on the structure of the monetary policy is analyzed. On the other hand, a new Keynesian DSGE model with consumption habit preference, a new Keynesian DSGE model with nominal viscosity, and a new Keynesian DSGE model with financial accelerator effect are built. In this paper, the asymmetric effect, regional effect and the micro-mechanism of the industrial effect of China's monetary policy are simulated and analyzed by using the Bayesian estimation method and the numerical simulation technology. Then, according to the results of the empirical test and the simulation analysis, the policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of reducing the consumer's habit preference, reducing the investment viscosity of the enterprise, promoting the reform of the financial market, and promoting the reform of the government's fiscal and taxation system. At the same time, the macro-control reform measures to promote the development of China's economy are also put forward, such as maintaining the fixed force of the monetary policy, adopting the smooth fine adjustment policy, implementing the differential monetary policy, and strengthening the coordination of the monetary policy and the fiscal policy Through the study of the micro-base and coordination policy of the structure effect of the monetary policy in China, the following innovations are obtained: The conclusion that, for example, the high preference of the consumption habits is the main cause of the asymmetric effect of the monetary policy in China, the investment impulse of the local government is an important reason leading to the regional effect of the monetary policy in China, and the viscosity of the investment in the enterprise is the result of the industrial effect of the monetary policy in China. For the reason, and put forward the concept of the 鈥渃orporate investment viscosity鈥

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