通脹預期視角下資產價格財富效應的非對稱性研究——基于狀態(tài)空間模型的分析
發(fā)布時間:2018-11-23 10:16
【摘要】:通過建立包含居民消費、收入以及資產價格的均衡模型,并納入通脹預期變量,運用狀態(tài)空間模型以及廣義脈沖響應函數等方法進行實證研究,對不同資產的邊際消費傾向時變特征進行了刻畫。結果發(fā)現(:1)房地產在短期具有較強的正向財富效應,但在長期具有減弱的趨勢。股票資產在短期具有財富效應,但長期財富效應消失。(2)不同資產的財富效應具有非對稱性,房地產的財富效應要遠遠大于股票資產。最后對增加城鎮(zhèn)居民資產性收入,帶動全社會消費提出了合理的建議。
[Abstract]:By establishing an equilibrium model including household consumption, income and asset price, and incorporating inflation expectation variables, the empirical research is carried out by using state space model and generalized impulse response function. This paper describes the time-varying characteristics of marginal propensity to consume in different assets. The results show that (1) Real estate has a strong positive wealth effect in the short term, but a weakening trend in the long run. Stock assets have a wealth effect in the short term, but the long-term wealth effect disappears. (2) the wealth effect of different assets is asymmetric, and the wealth effect of real estate is much larger than that of stock assets. Finally, some reasonable suggestions are put forward to increase the asset income of urban residents and drive the whole society consumption.
【作者單位】: 南京師范大學商學院;
【基金】:國家社科基金“我國管理通脹預期與靈活審慎的貨幣政策研究(編號:10CJY064)” 教育部人文社科基金“轉型期我國貨幣政策傳導的區(qū)域異質性研究(編號:09YJC790152)”的階段性成果
【分類號】:F224;F832.51;F293.3
[Abstract]:By establishing an equilibrium model including household consumption, income and asset price, and incorporating inflation expectation variables, the empirical research is carried out by using state space model and generalized impulse response function. This paper describes the time-varying characteristics of marginal propensity to consume in different assets. The results show that (1) Real estate has a strong positive wealth effect in the short term, but a weakening trend in the long run. Stock assets have a wealth effect in the short term, but the long-term wealth effect disappears. (2) the wealth effect of different assets is asymmetric, and the wealth effect of real estate is much larger than that of stock assets. Finally, some reasonable suggestions are put forward to increase the asset income of urban residents and drive the whole society consumption.
【作者單位】: 南京師范大學商學院;
【基金】:國家社科基金“我國管理通脹預期與靈活審慎的貨幣政策研究(編號:10CJY064)” 教育部人文社科基金“轉型期我國貨幣政策傳導的區(qū)域異質性研究(編號:09YJC790152)”的階段性成果
【分類號】:F224;F832.51;F293.3
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