【摘要】：自2005年匯改以來(lái)，人民幣多次出現(xiàn)對(duì)外升值和對(duì)內(nèi)貶值并存的現(xiàn)象，使人民幣的內(nèi)外價(jià)值走向出現(xiàn)差異，并不斷擴(kuò)大。本文用匯率和國(guó)內(nèi)各類價(jià)格分別表示人民幣對(duì)外購(gòu)買力和對(duì)內(nèi)購(gòu)買力水平。以國(guó)內(nèi)各類價(jià)格和匯率之間的傳遞效應(yīng)角度，從理論分析和實(shí)證分析兩方面對(duì)這一新貨幣現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行討論。對(duì)人民幣外升內(nèi)貶現(xiàn)象的研究，不但有助于理解物價(jià)和匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，而且對(duì)相應(yīng)貨幣政策的決策和實(shí)踐具有參考價(jià)值。另外，如何選擇適當(dāng)?shù)膮R率制度對(duì)我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)反通脹目標(biāo)和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定健康的發(fā)展具有重要的理論探索意義和政策參考作用。 本文首先介紹了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于人民幣對(duì)外升值和對(duì)內(nèi)貶值現(xiàn)象的相關(guān)研究成果；其次，從“購(gòu)買力平價(jià)”代表的傳統(tǒng)理論、匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)物價(jià)的新傳遞理論以及匯率對(duì)物價(jià)變動(dòng)的影響渠道三個(gè)方面，對(duì)匯率和物價(jià)之間的理論關(guān)系進(jìn)行了論述；第三，分析了人民幣匯率制度的歷史變遷、人民幣匯率的現(xiàn)狀、國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)的現(xiàn)狀，，同時(shí)對(duì)匯率與物價(jià)之間趨勢(shì)做了對(duì)比分析；第四，從理論上分析出現(xiàn)外升內(nèi)貶的原因，發(fā)現(xiàn)這是巴拉薩—薩繆爾森效應(yīng)、國(guó)內(nèi)外雙失衡、我國(guó)涉外經(jīng)濟(jì)不合理所造成的結(jié)果。第五，利用2005年7月至2013年12月的月度數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)匯率和物價(jià)的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系做了研究，然后選取進(jìn)口物價(jià)指數(shù)（IPI）、生產(chǎn)者物價(jià)指數(shù)（PPI）和消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)（CPI）作為國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)的衡量指標(biāo)，綜合人民幣匯率、供給因素、需求因素、貨幣供應(yīng)量四個(gè)影響因素，建立VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)、方差分解、協(xié)整分析和誤差修正模型，針對(duì)人民幣匯率對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。最后，結(jié)合實(shí)證分析結(jié)果，提出我國(guó)需進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)匯率彈性，逐步推進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化，中長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需以維持中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外均衡，合理調(diào)整外匯儲(chǔ)備結(jié)構(gòu)和對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策，并繼續(xù)實(shí)施穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策等的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the external appreciation and internal depreciation of the RMB have appeared for many times, which makes the internal and external value of RMB appear the difference, and expand continuously. The foreign purchasing power and domestic purchasing power of RMB are expressed by exchange rate and domestic price respectively. From the point of view of the transfer effect between various kinds of domestic prices and exchange rates, this new currency phenomenon is discussed from two aspects: theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. The study of the internal and external depreciation of RMB is not only helpful to understand the influence of price and exchange rate fluctuation on macroeconomic, but also has reference value to the decision and practice of corresponding monetary policy. In addition, how to choose the appropriate exchange rate system is of great theoretical significance and policy reference for China to achieve the goal of anti-inflation and the healthy development of macroeconomic stability. This paper first introduces the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars on the phenomenon of RMB appreciation and internal depreciation; secondly, from the "purchasing power parity" representative of the traditional theory, The new transfer theory of exchange rate fluctuation to price and the influence channel of exchange rate on price change are discussed in three aspects: the theoretical relationship between exchange rate and price. Thirdly, the historical change of RMB exchange rate system is analyzed. The present situation of RMB exchange rate, the present situation of domestic price, and the comparative analysis of the trend between exchange rate and price. Fourthly, the paper theoretically analyzes the reason of internal and external devaluation, and finds that this is the Balassa-Samuelson effect, which is out of balance at home and abroad. The result of unreasonable economy concerning foreign affairs in our country. Fifth, using monthly data from July 2005 to December 2013, the Granger causality between exchange rates and prices was studied. Then select the (IPI), producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the measure of domestic price, integrate RMB exchange rate, supply factor, demand factor and money supply factor, and establish VAR model. Impulse response, variance decomposition, cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to analyze the effect of RMB exchange rate on domestic prices. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, it is proposed that China should further strengthen exchange rate elasticity, gradually promote the internationalization of RMB, expand domestic demand in the medium and long term to maintain the internal and external balance of China's economy, and rationally adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves and foreign trade policies. And continue to implement prudent monetary policy and other policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：2154248