本文選題：匯率 + 升值�。� 參考：《復旦大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：匯率是一個國家或地區(qū)進行對外經濟活動的非常重要的價格指標,它通常被當作一個重要杠桿來調節(jié)一國的貿易收支。匯率變動通過改變商品相對價格影響一國進出口貿易,進而影響進出口商品結構。本文以分析日元升值對中日貿易收支的直接間接影響的途徑和影響程度為目的。本文首先分析了從完全競爭市場和不完全競爭市場假設下的匯率變動對貿易收支影響的相關理論,簡單概括了當前的研究文獻,為下文分析鋪墊理論基礎。接著簡單分析了日元升值的背景和升值階段,沿著中日貿易發(fā)展的時間線,分析日元升值對中日進出口貿易總量的影響。緊接著分析中日兩國比較商品優(yōu)勢,為進一步分析日元升值對中日兩國商品結構產生的不同影響打下理論基礎并揭示其影響的原因所在。在定量分析方面,文章采用實證研究的單位根檢驗、協(xié)整分析和向量誤差修正模型等分析手段力求研究結論比較有說服力。通過分析1985-2012年中日兩國30多年的貿易數據,我們得出結論：馬歇爾-勒納條件在中日兩國貿易條件中不成立,日元匯率不是影響中日貿易收支的決定因素,中日兩國國民收入才是影響兩國貿易收支變動的主因,而且中國的國民收入水平對中日進出口影響較大。最后如何應對人民幣升值,本文也提出了相關政策建議。包括保持國內貨幣政策獨立性,實施合理的外匯政策,加快國內產業(yè)結構的升級,實現經濟協(xié)調發(fā)展提高國內居民的消費水平,實現以內需為動力的發(fā)展。通過這些政策的實施我國可以利用好升值機會加快經濟發(fā)展促進經濟轉型。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is a very important price index for a country or region to conduct foreign economic activities. It is usually used as an important lever to regulate a country's trade balance. Exchange rate change affects a country's import and export trade by changing the relative price of commodities, and then affects the structure of import and export commodities. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the direct and indirect influence of yen appreciation on Sino-Japanese trade balance. This paper first analyzes the theory of the effect of exchange rate change on trade balance under the assumption of perfect competitive market and incomplete competitive market, summarizes the current research literature, and lays a theoretical foundation for the following analysis. Then the background and stage of yen appreciation are briefly analyzed, and the influence of yen appreciation on the total volume of Sino-Japanese import and export trade is analyzed along the time line of Sino-Japanese trade development. Then the comparative commodity advantage between China and Japan is analyzed to lay a theoretical foundation for further analysis of the different effects of yen appreciation on the commodity structure of China and Japan and to reveal the reasons for its influence. In terms of quantitative analysis, this paper uses the unit root test, cointegration analysis and vector error correction model of empirical research to make the conclusions more convincing. By analyzing the trade data of China and Japan from 1985 to 2012, we conclude that the Marshall-Lerner condition is not established in the terms of trade between China and Japan, and the exchange rate of the yen is not the decisive factor affecting the balance of trade between China and Japan. The national income of China and Japan is the main factor that affects the changes of trade balance between China and Japan, and the level of national income of China has a great influence on the import and export of China and Japan. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to deal with RMB appreciation. It includes maintaining the independence of domestic monetary policy, implementing reasonable foreign exchange policy, speeding up the upgrading of domestic industrial structure, realizing the coordinated development of economy and improving the consumption level of domestic residents, and realizing the development driven by domestic demand. Through the implementation of these policies, China can make good use of the opportunity of appreciation to accelerate economic development and promote economic transformation.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前1條

1 任縉;人民幣匯率變動與我國國際貿易收支關系的彈性分析[J];西南民族大學學報(人文社科版);2005年08期

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本文編號：2018328