本文選題：央行最優(yōu)目標(biāo) + 資本管制　； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)》2012年06期

【摘要】：本文通過拓展的Ronald Shone動(dòng)態(tài)開放宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,建立了央行最優(yōu)目標(biāo)函數(shù),并利用動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃和貝爾曼方程推導(dǎo)出人民幣均衡匯率表達(dá)式,在一定的資本管制系數(shù)下估算了1994年1季度～2011年1季度人民幣均衡匯率區(qū)間。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):1994以來央行的相機(jī)抉擇政策,就人民幣均衡匯率來看是行之有效的,沒有造成人民幣均衡匯率失衡;央行政策選擇影響了人民幣均衡匯率邊界;中國資本項(xiàng)目開放的步伐是適宜的,超前的資本開放或僵硬的資本管制,都會(huì)造成人民幣均衡匯率的較大失衡;資本項(xiàng)目進(jìn)一步調(diào)整已具備較適宜的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:In this paper, through the extended Ronald Shone dynamic open macroeconomic model, the optimal objective function of central bank is established, and the expression of RMB equilibrium exchange rate is derived by using dynamic programming and Berman equation. The equilibrium exchange rate range of RMB from the first quarter of 1994 to the first quarter of 2011 is estimated under a certain capital control coefficient. The results show that the central bank's choice of policy since 1994 is effective in terms of RMB equilibrium exchange rate and does not result in the imbalance of RMB equilibrium exchange rate, and the policy choice of the central bank affects the boundary of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The pace of capital account opening in China is appropriate, and the capital opening ahead or rigid capital control will cause a large imbalance in the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB, and the further adjustment of capital account has already possessed a more suitable macroeconomic environment.
【作者單位】： 重慶大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管理學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2012121