發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-30 06:00

  本文選題：人民幣升值 + 匯率傳遞��； 參考：《國(guó)際貿(mào)易問(wèn)題》2015年02期

【摘要】：本文基于2005-2012年間中國(guó)對(duì)20個(gè)主要出口市場(chǎng)HS六位數(shù)編碼的細(xì)分商品出口數(shù)據(jù),利用樣本選擇模型與Hausman-Taylor AR(1)回歸相結(jié)合的兩階段估計(jì)方法,分析評(píng)估了人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的影響與傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),人民幣升值在抑制出口總量增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),支持高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口比重提升,推動(dòng)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的"高端化"演進(jìn)。與此同時(shí),由于人民幣升值對(duì)中等技術(shù)制成品的負(fù)面沖擊強(qiáng)于資源性產(chǎn)品,使得出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)趨向于"低端化"發(fā)展。人民幣升值的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整效應(yīng)主要通過(guò)成本因素的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制發(fā)揮作用,異質(zhì)性商品在成本結(jié)構(gòu)上的差異性,決定了本幣升值的成本節(jié)約利得懸殊,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致出口價(jià)格和出口規(guī)模發(fā)生不同程度的變動(dòng),最終引起出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:Based on the HS six-digit coded subdivision export data of 20 major export markets in China from 2005 to 2012, this paper presents a two-stage estimation method combining sample selection model with Hausman-Taylor AR1 regression. This paper analyzes and evaluates the influence and transmission mechanism of RMB appreciation on China's export commodity structure. The research found that RMB appreciation not only restrained the total export growth, but also supported the increase of export proportion of high-tech products, and promoted the "high-end" evolution of export commodity structure. At the same time, the negative impact of RMB appreciation on medium-technology manufactured goods is stronger than that of resource-based products, which makes the export commodity structure tend to "low-end" development. The structural adjustment effect of RMB appreciation mainly plays a role through the transmission mechanism of cost factors. The difference in cost structure of heterogeneous commodities determines the difference in cost savings and benefits of local currency appreciation. Then the export price and export scale change in different degrees, and finally cause the dynamic adjustment of export commodity structure.
【作者單位】： 上海立信會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院高職學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“全球價(jià)值鏈變遷與中國(guó)對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變”(編號(hào):14BJL053) 教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目“對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變:過(guò)程評(píng)價(jià)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警”(編號(hào):13YJA790102) 上海市教委科研創(chuàng)新重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“人民幣升值、企業(yè)行為與出口結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整”(編號(hào):13ZS135) 央財(cái)國(guó)際貿(mào)易重點(diǎn)學(xué)科帶頭人培養(yǎng)計(jì)劃
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.62

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前8條

1 張會(huì)清;唐海燕;;人民幣升值、企業(yè)行為與出口貿(mào)易——基于大樣本企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證研究:2005～2009[J];管理世界;2012年12期

2 文爭(zhēng)為;;我國(guó)出口匯率傳遞率行業(yè)和國(guó)家差異的實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論;2011年03期

3 李宏彬;馬弘;熊艷艷;徐Z，

本文編號(hào)：1954191