本文選題：外商直接投資 + 國(guó)際收支��； 參考：《天津商業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，受招商引資政策的指引，我國(guó)掀起了引進(jìn)外資的熱潮。外資投入初期，由于投資額相對(duì)較小，其對(duì)我國(guó)的國(guó)際收支影響并不顯著；在1992年以后，隨著外資的流入加速，F(xiàn)DI成為我國(guó)引進(jìn)外資的主要形式，F(xiàn)DI開(kāi)始對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)際收支產(chǎn)生顯著影響，進(jìn)而成為影響我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要因素。與此同時(shí)，我國(guó)的國(guó)際收支結(jié)構(gòu)也發(fā)生了顯著的變化，經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本和金融項(xiàng)目多年持續(xù)保持“雙順差”。目前，面對(duì)著巨額的FDI存量，伴隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的不景氣以及我國(guó)勞動(dòng)力成本優(yōu)勢(shì)逐漸消失，F(xiàn)DI對(duì)我國(guó)未來(lái)的國(guó)際收支影響可能會(huì)發(fā)生變化，在這樣的背景下，研究FDI對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)際收支的影響具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 首先，本文梳理了國(guó)內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者關(guān)于FDI對(duì)國(guó)際收支的影響研究，從而為下文分析FDI對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)際收支的影響奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)；然后，闡述了我國(guó)利用FDI和我國(guó)國(guó)際收支的概況，綜合以上的理論分析，得出FDI影響我國(guó)國(guó)際收支的機(jī)理，不同階段的FDI對(duì)我國(guó)的國(guó)際收支各項(xiàng)目影響是不同的，并以圖和表的形式概括的分析了FDI對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)際收支各個(gè)子項(xiàng)目的影響，各個(gè)子項(xiàng)目之間不是相互孤立的，而是互相聯(lián)系的，，最終結(jié)論是FDI對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)際收支的貿(mào)易差額產(chǎn)生正向效應(yīng)，對(duì)投資收益差額產(chǎn)生負(fù)向效應(yīng)，貿(mào)易順差是導(dǎo)致經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差的主要原因；FDI對(duì)資本和金融項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生正向的效應(yīng)。而后，筆者建立了計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，采用了1997-2012年的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用協(xié)整的分析技術(shù)，建立了VAR模型，在VAR模型的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本和金融項(xiàng)目的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)，并對(duì)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本和金融項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了方差分解。FDI對(duì)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目波動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)率大約在19%，對(duì)資本和金融項(xiàng)目波動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)率大約在15%。在本文的最后，筆者從促進(jìn)加工貿(mào)易產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)、改變服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差、適度外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模等角度提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, our country has set off the upsurge of introducing foreign capital under the guidance of the policy of attracting foreign investment. In the initial stage of foreign investment, because the investment is relatively small, its impact on China's balance of payments is not significant; after 1992, With the inflow of foreign capital, FDI has become the main form of FDI in China. FDI has a significant impact on China's balance of payments and has become an important factor affecting the development of China's national economy. At the same time, China's balance of payments structure has also undergone significant changes, the current account and capital and financial accounts have maintained a "double surplus" for many years. At present, in the face of the huge stock of FDI, with the recession of the world economy and the gradual disappearance of China's labor cost advantage, the impact of FDI on our future balance of payments may change. It is of great practical significance to study the impact of FDI on China's balance of payments. First of all, this paper reviews the domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the impact of FDI on the balance of payments, so as to lay a theoretical foundation for the following analysis of the impact of FDI on China's balance of payments, and then expounds the general situation of China's use of FDI and China's balance of payments. Based on the above theoretical analysis, it is concluded that the mechanism of FDI influencing China's balance of payments is different from that of different stages of FDI to various items of China's balance of payments. And in the form of diagram and table, the paper analyzes the impact of FDI on the sub-items of China's balance of payments. The sub-items are not isolated, but interrelated. The final conclusion is that FDI has a positive effect on China's balance of payments trade balance and a negative effect on investment income balance. Trade surplus is the main reason leading to the current account surplus. Then, the author establishes the econometric model, adopts the statistical data from 1997-2012, establishes the VAR model by using the cointegration analysis technology, and establishes the impulse response function of the current account and the capital and financial projects on the basis of the VAR model. The contribution rate of FDI to current account volatility is about 19, and the contribution rate to capital and financial project volatility is about 15 percent. At the end of this paper, the author puts forward some policy suggestions from the perspective of promoting the upgrading of processing trade industry, changing the trade deficit in services, and the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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