本文選題：外商直接投資 + 人民幣匯率��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：消費(fèi)、投資、出口是拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的三駕馬車(chē),改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)也面臨著經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)極度不合理的問(wèn)題。我國(guó)總消費(fèi)占經(jīng)濟(jì)比重仍然很低,截止至2012年底全國(guó)總消費(fèi)占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例不足50%。2010年十七屆五中全會(huì)提出第十二個(gè)五年規(guī)劃時(shí),將“轉(zhuǎn)方式、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)”作為“十二五”規(guī)劃的重中之重。調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu),是指利率市場(chǎng)化大背景下,由于投資成本提高,投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用將會(huì)受挫,為了確保經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠軟著陸,貨幣當(dāng)局要適時(shí)的采取一定的方式提高消費(fèi)以及出口在經(jīng)濟(jì)總產(chǎn)出中的比重。然而,居民的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣不是一朝一夕能夠改變的,在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的當(dāng)口,貨幣當(dāng)局一定要維持出口的穩(wěn)定、保證我國(guó)在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力以此來(lái)維護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定 我國(guó)出口方面,制造業(yè)在出口中比例較高,我國(guó)出口制造業(yè)技術(shù)含量低、國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力不強(qiáng),屬于勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)。且目前東南亞、越南等國(guó)家已經(jīng)在模仿“中國(guó)模式”采取外向型經(jīng)濟(jì),在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上和我國(guó)形成了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)態(tài)勢(shì)。此時(shí),我國(guó)要保持國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力必須要在維護(hù)匯率穩(wěn)定的基礎(chǔ)上逐步推進(jìn)人民幣匯率升值、調(diào)整我國(guó)出口結(jié)構(gòu)、提高出口產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)含量,增加中國(guó)創(chuàng)造類(lèi)產(chǎn)品。特別是出口結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整的過(guò)程中,要求出口企業(yè)產(chǎn)品技術(shù)升級(jí)短期內(nèi)難度較大,所以國(guó)家一定要為其提供一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的大環(huán)境,在逐步推進(jìn)人民幣匯率的大背景下保持人民幣匯率的穩(wěn)定。這也是目前實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸的重中之重。 影響人民幣匯率變動(dòng)的因素有很多,包括國(guó)內(nèi)因素和國(guó)際因素。國(guó)內(nèi)方面國(guó)內(nèi)利率的變動(dòng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度的變化、貨幣當(dāng)局的貨幣政策調(diào)整等因素都會(huì)對(duì)人民幣匯率產(chǎn)生影響,國(guó)內(nèi)因素一定程度上是可以控制的。而國(guó)際方面,我國(guó)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本項(xiàng)目目前正在逐步放開(kāi)。貨幣當(dāng)局處于經(jīng)濟(jì)的可控性考慮,而仍未完全放開(kāi)我國(guó)資本項(xiàng)目。在我國(guó)實(shí)行這種嚴(yán)格資本管制的情況下,FDI資本成為了我國(guó)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的主要形式。特別的,2002年我國(guó)首次成為全球FDI資本流入最多的國(guó)家。在實(shí)行出口經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó),FDI資本的流入為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展作出了貢獻(xiàn)也對(duì)我國(guó)人民幣匯率造成了重大的影響。2005年,我國(guó)貨幣當(dāng)局發(fā)文(中國(guó)人民銀行公告[2005]第16號(hào))我國(guó)開(kāi)始實(shí)行有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制。從此我國(guó)人民幣匯率開(kāi)始進(jìn)行小幅波動(dòng),迄今以來(lái)經(jīng)歷了長(zhǎng)期的穩(wěn)中有升的過(guò)程,這期間FDI資本作為國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的主要代表對(duì)我國(guó)人民幣匯率的變動(dòng)起了很大的影響。 FDI方面,1978年改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),為適應(yīng)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展需求,我國(guó)吸引外商投資帶動(dòng)出口、帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)升級(jí)的政策成為我國(guó)外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)政策組成的一部分。1992年鄧小平在深圳、珠海等南方地區(qū)發(fā)表講話(huà)以后,FDI資本開(kāi)始大量、快速、持續(xù)地涌入我國(guó)。2002年我國(guó)FDI流入量為527.43億美元,首次超過(guò)美國(guó)而成為全球FDI資本流入最多的國(guó)家。2010年我國(guó)實(shí)際利用外資1057億美元,一舉突破千億大關(guān)。FDI的大規(guī)模流入,給我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了相對(duì)先進(jìn)的管理、科學(xué)技術(shù),且外商直接投資企業(yè)大多數(shù)選擇外貿(mào)交易,其中外商投資企業(yè)的出口交貨值占所有外商企業(yè)主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入的32%以上,這也促進(jìn)了我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,同時(shí)使我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備大幅增加。1990年我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備余額為110.93億美元,2000年為1665.74億美元,2010年底為28473.38億美元,我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備余額處在一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期大幅上升的趨勢(shì)中。 FDI對(duì)人民幣匯率的影響主要表現(xiàn)為FDI資本流入時(shí),國(guó)際資本對(duì)人民幣的需求以及國(guó)內(nèi)當(dāng)局對(duì)人民幣的控制使國(guó)際市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生人民幣供給缺口,從而對(duì)我國(guó)資本賬戶(hù)產(chǎn)生沖擊；FDI進(jìn)入我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)之后,FDI有兩個(gè)選擇：進(jìn)行國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)或者進(jìn)行資本積累,如果FDI流入我國(guó)境內(nèi)后選擇進(jìn)行消費(fèi),則不論它是對(duì)我國(guó)貿(mào)易品還是非貿(mào)易品進(jìn)行消費(fèi)都會(huì)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)貿(mào)易品與非貿(mào)易的相對(duì)價(jià)格造成一定程度的影響,這種影響經(jīng)過(guò)一系列錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的傳導(dǎo)在購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)的作用下引起人民幣匯率發(fā)生波動(dòng)；而當(dāng)FDI資本進(jìn)入國(guó)內(nèi)后進(jìn)行資本積累時(shí),FDI會(huì)通過(guò)貿(mào)易品與非貿(mào)易品的生產(chǎn)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)、就業(yè)以及經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)進(jìn)行影響。并且如果FDI資本進(jìn)行資本積累,當(dāng)FDI企業(yè)結(jié)束初期投資期而進(jìn)入回報(bào)期,外資企業(yè)生產(chǎn)開(kāi)始盈利后的利潤(rùn)是否匯回也會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)外匯市場(chǎng)人民幣供求產(chǎn)生影響。也就是說(shuō)FDI資本從在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)尋求進(jìn)入我國(guó)的途徑到進(jìn)入國(guó)內(nèi)甚至轉(zhuǎn)化成利潤(rùn)匯出這其中的每一階段都將對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)以及人民幣匯率產(chǎn)生影響但每一步的影響方式和結(jié)果卻又有所差別,所以理清FDI資本在我國(guó)進(jìn)行消費(fèi)或生產(chǎn)的具體情況并進(jìn)行分析,理順FDI對(duì)我國(guó)人民幣匯率的影響機(jī)制尤其重要,這也對(duì)貨幣當(dāng)局制定相關(guān)政策提供了思路。 本文的目的在于厘清FDI從流入我國(guó)到進(jìn)行消費(fèi)和生產(chǎn)再到最后流出國(guó)內(nèi)這—過(guò)程中FDI資本通過(guò)影響我國(guó)國(guó)際收支、國(guó)內(nèi)貿(mào)易品與非貿(mào)易的相對(duì)價(jià)格、國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度、國(guó)內(nèi)技術(shù)水平等來(lái)影響我國(guó)人民幣匯率的機(jī)制。并通過(guò)實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)證明FDI和我國(guó)人民幣匯率之間存在的短期和長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系。以此給貨幣當(dāng)局穩(wěn)定人民幣匯率方面提供相應(yīng)的參考。 本文研究結(jié)構(gòu)如下： 第一部分主要介紹本文的選題背景,闡述在當(dāng)今國(guó)際大背景下梳理清楚FDI資本和人民幣匯率之間關(guān)系的重要意義。提出本文的研究思路和方法,本文采用理論研究與實(shí)際檢驗(yàn)相結(jié)合的方法,首先介紹理論假設(shè),之后通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)證明假設(shè)在我國(guó)的有效性。之后介紹本文的創(chuàng)新,本文首先分析了流入我國(guó)的FDI資本的特點(diǎn),并在此基礎(chǔ)上將這種FDI各個(gè)方面納入到研究中來(lái),從FDI進(jìn)入到最后FDI潛在的利潤(rùn)流出各個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了闡述。 第二部分從國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際兩個(gè)角度分別介紹了對(duì)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)—國(guó)匯率的影響以及FDI資本對(duì)匯率的影響兩方面的研究,并重點(diǎn)對(duì)研究FDI和我國(guó)人民幣匯率之間關(guān)系的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了梳理。 第三部分為本文的主要部分。首先介紹了國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的目的包括不同動(dòng)機(jī)的FDI資本的各個(gè)特點(diǎn),并分析了FDI資本選擇我國(guó)進(jìn)行投資的原因。之后分析了相對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)資本來(lái)講,我國(guó)政府更偏好FDI資本的原因。在此基礎(chǔ)上本文根據(jù)實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)流入我國(guó)的FDI資本的特征進(jìn)行了具體調(diào)研,弄清流入我國(guó)的FDI資本行業(yè)、產(chǎn)業(yè)的具體分布情況。之后針對(duì)流入我國(guó)的FDI資本,從資金流動(dòng)過(guò)國(guó)內(nèi)初始到資金流入各個(gè)部門(mén)時(shí)對(duì)相應(yīng)部門(mén)造成的影響進(jìn)行了分析其和人民幣之間的聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系。 第四部分在理論基礎(chǔ)的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行了變量選擇,選取國(guó)內(nèi)相應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù)將人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、FDI凈流入量和其他對(duì)人民幣匯率造成影響的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量如代表一國(guó)財(cái)政政策的政府購(gòu)買(mǎi)變量、代表一國(guó)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性的貿(mào)易條件數(shù)據(jù)納入到一個(gè)回歸方程中進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,檢驗(yàn)實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)是否支持本文理論,并提出相應(yīng)的解釋。 第五部分在理論假設(shè)與實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上從我國(guó)的人民幣匯率和流入我國(guó)的FDI資本兩個(gè)角度進(jìn)行了總結(jié)并提出相關(guān)建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于很多前人文章是通過(guò)研究FDI對(duì)出口、FDI對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的影響來(lái)間接說(shuō)明FDI和人民幣匯率之間的關(guān)系,而本文直接對(duì)流入我國(guó)的FDI資本進(jìn)行考察,并按照FDI資本流動(dòng)路徑按照FDI從流入到進(jìn)入國(guó)內(nèi)進(jìn)行資金運(yùn)作到流出我國(guó),追蹤資金流動(dòng)的全過(guò)程,并分階段解釋FDI對(duì)人民幣匯率的影響。且國(guó)內(nèi)大多數(shù)研究主要集中于FDI和人民幣匯率之間的實(shí)證關(guān)系或者只局部的研究FDI對(duì)人民幣匯率的部分影響,沒(méi)有將FDI從國(guó)際市場(chǎng)流入一進(jìn)入國(guó)內(nèi)進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)積累—擴(kuò)大再生產(chǎn)或利潤(rùn)匯回—利潤(rùn)最大化目的外對(duì)東道國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響等進(jìn)行全方位的跟蹤研究。本文試圖嘗試這種研究方式,并通過(guò)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and export are the three carriages to drive the economy. Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic growth is also facing extremely unreasonable economic structure. China's total consumption is still very low, and the proportion of total national consumption to GDP by the end of 2012 is insufficient in the fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee of 50%.2010. In the twelfth five year plan, the "transfer mode and structure" is the most important part of the "12th Five-Year" plan. The adjustment of the structure is that the investment will be frustrated because of the increase in the investment cost in the background of the interest rate marketization. In order to ensure a soft landing, the monetary authorities should take a timely manner to raise the price. High consumption and the proportion of exports in the total economic output. However, the consumption habits of the residents are not able to change overnight. In the moment of China's economic transformation, the monetary authorities must maintain the stability of the export and ensure the competitiveness of our country in the international market in order to maintain economic stability.
In China's export, the proportion of manufacturing industry in export is high, China's export manufacturing industry is low in technology and international competitiveness, which belongs to labor intensive industry. At present, in Southeast Asia, Vietnam and other countries have taken an export-oriented economy in imitation of the "Chinese model" and formed a competitive situation with our country in the international market. On the basis of maintaining the international competitiveness, we must gradually advance the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate on the basis of maintaining the stability of the exchange rate, adjust the export structure of our country, improve the technical content of the export products, and increase the production of Chinese products. In the process of the adjustment of the export structure, it is difficult for the export enterprises to upgrade the production technology in the short term, so the country is one of the most difficult ones. We must provide a stable environment for it and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate in the context of the gradual advance of the RMB exchange rate, which is the most important part of the current soft landing.
There are many factors affecting the change of RMB exchange rate, including domestic factors and international factors. Domestic interest rate changes at home, the change of economic growth rate, monetary policy adjustment and other factors will affect the RMB exchange rate, and the domestic factors can be controlled to some extent. The items and capital projects are now being gradually liberalized. The monetary authorities are in the economic controllability and still have not completely liberalized our capital account. In the case of strict capital control in China, FDI capital has become the main form of international capital flow in China. In particular, China became the world's largest FDI capital inflow for the first time in 2002. In our country where the export economy is implemented, the inflow of FDI capital contributes to the development of China's national economy and has a significant impact on the RMB exchange rate in China for.2005 years. China's monetary authorities' document (the people's Bank of China's announcement [2005] sixteenth) began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system in China. The rate began to carry on a small fluctuation, and so far has experienced a long period of steady progress. During this period, FDI capital, as the main representative of the international capital flow, had a great impact on the change of the RMB exchange rate in China.
FDI, since the reform and opening up in 1978, in order to meet the needs of the development of the market economy, the policy of attracting foreign investment to drive the export and promoting the economic upgrading has become a part of the foreign economic policy of our country. After Deng Xiaoping's speech in Shenzhen, Zhuhai and other southern regions in Zhuhai, the capital of FDI began to pour into a large, rapid and continuous flow. China's FDI inflow in.2002 was 52 billion 743 million US dollars in China, which was first overtaken by the United States and became the world's largest FDI capital inflow country for the first time. In.2010, our country actually utilized 105 billion 700 million dollars in foreign capital, and broke through the large-scale inflow of hundreds of billions of customs.FDI, which brought relatively advanced management, science and technology, and most foreign direct investment enterprises in our country. The number of foreign trade transactions is selected. The export delivery value of foreign invested enterprises accounts for more than 32% of the main business income of all foreign enterprises. This also promotes the development of our foreign trade. At the same time, the foreign exchange reserve of our country has increased by a large amount of $11 billion 93 million in.1990 years. In 2000, it is 166 billion 574 million US dollars and the end of 2010 is 28473.38. The balance of China's foreign exchange reserves is in a long-term upward trend.
The influence of FDI on the exchange rate of RMB is mainly manifested in the inflow of FDI capital, the demand of international capital to RMB and the control of the domestic authorities on the RMB make the RMB supply gap in the international market, which will impact on the capital account of our country. After FDI enters our country, FDI has two choices: domestic consumption or advance. In the case of capital accumulation, if FDI flows into our country and chooses to consume, whether it is the consumption of China's trade goods or non trade goods will affect the relative price of domestic trade goods and non trade to a certain extent. This effect is caused by a series of intricate transmission under the effect of purchasing power parity. When the FDI capital enters the country, when the capital is accumulated, the FDI will affect the economy, technology, employment and current account of our country through the production of trade goods and non trade goods. And if the capital of FDI is accumulated, the production of foreign enterprises will begin when the FDI enterprise ends the initial investment period. The repatriation of profit will also affect the supply and demand of RMB in China's foreign exchange market. That is to say, the influence of FDI capital from the international market to our country and even into the remittance of profit will affect the domestic economy and the exchange rate of the people's currency, but each step will affect each step. The methods and results are different, so it is particularly important to clarify the specific situation of FDI capital consumption or production in China and to analyze the impact mechanism of FDI on the RMB exchange rate in China, which also provides a way of thinking for the monetary authorities to formulate relevant policies.
The purpose of this paper is to clarify the mechanism of the influence of FDI capital on the RMB exchange rate in China through the influx of China's international balance of payments, the relative price of domestic trade goods and non trade, the domestic economic growth rate and the domestic technical level in the process of FDI from the flow of our country to consumption and production to the final outflow of China. The relationship between FDI and China's RMB exchange rate is proved to be short-term and long-term stable, so as to provide a reference for the monetary authorities to stabilize the RMB exchange rate.
The structure of this paper is as follows:
The first part mainly introduces the background of this paper, expounds the significance of the relationship between FDI capital and RMB exchange rate under the international background. This paper puts forward the research ideas and methods of this paper. This paper adopts the method of combining theoretical research and actual test, first introduces the theoretical hypothesis, and then proves the hypothesis by data. The effectiveness of our country. After introducing the innovation of this article, this article first analyzes the characteristics of FDI capital inflow into our country, and on this basis, the various aspects of this kind of FDI are brought into the research, and the potential profit outflows from FDI to the final FDI are expounded.
The second part introduces the study on the impact of international capital flow on the exchange rate and the influence of FDI capital on exchange rate from two perspectives at home and abroad, and focuses on the literature of the study of the relationship between the exchange rate of FDI and the exchange rate of China's RMB.
The third part is the main part of this article. First, the purpose of the international capital flow is to introduce the various characteristics of FDI capital with different motives, and to analyze the reasons for the choice of FDI capital to invest in our country. After that, we analyze the reasons why our government prefers the FDI capital to the domestic capital. Based on this, this paper is based on the actual number. According to the specific investigation of the characteristics of FDI capital inflow into China, the specific distribution of FDI capital industry in China is cleared up, and then the impact of the flow of capital flowing into our country's FDI capital, from the flow of capital to the respective departments when the capital flows over the domestic initial to the capital inflow to the corresponding departments, is analyzed and the linkage between the capital and the RMB is analyzed. Relationship.
The fourth part carries out the selection of variables on the basis of the theoretical basis, and selects the corresponding domestic data to make the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the net flow of FDI and other economic variables that affect the RMB exchange rate, such as the government purchase variable representing a country's fiscal policy, which represents the international competitive trade condition data on behalf of a country. An empirical analysis is carried out in a regression equation to test whether the actual data support the theory and propose corresponding explanations.
The fifth part, on the basis of theoretical hypothesis and empirical study, summarizes the RMB exchange rate and the FDI capital inflow into China in two aspects and puts forward some suggestions.
The innovation of this article is that many previous articles have studied the relationship between FDI and the exchange rate of RMB indirectly through the study of the effect of FDI on export and the impact of FDI on the economic growth rate. This article is a direct study of the FDI capital inflow to China, and in accordance with the flow path of FDI capital flow from the flow of FDI into the country to carry out the operation of the capital to the stream. In our country, the whole process of capital flow is traced, and the effect of FDI on the exchange rate of RMB is explained in stages. And most of the domestic research mainly focuses on the empirical relationship between FDI and RMB exchange rate or partial study of the partial effect of FDI on the exchange rate of RMB, and does not inflow FDI from the international market to the domestic production. A full tracking study of the impact of the expansion of reproduction or profit remittance to the profit maximization of the host country's economy. This paper tries to try this way of research and verifies it through empirical results.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6

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