本文選題：熱錢(qián)規(guī)模　切入點(diǎn)：估算方法　出處：《復(fù)旦學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版)》2015年05期

【摘要】：近年,"熱錢(qián)"流入成為國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)術(shù)界廣泛關(guān)注和深入探討的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。由于關(guān)于如何界定"熱錢(qián)",國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者仍存有爭(zhēng)議,因而尚沒(méi)有形成對(duì)"熱錢(qián)"規(guī)模估算的統(tǒng)一口徑與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方法。常規(guī)的"熱錢(qián)"估算方法主要分直接法與間接法,但這兩種方法還無(wú)法有效測(cè)算隱藏于貿(mào)易項(xiàng)下的"熱錢(qián)"規(guī)模,而這正是目前"熱錢(qián)"進(jìn)出國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的最主要渠道。為此,本文從學(xué)理視角,提出了如何估算貿(mào)易項(xiàng)下隱藏的"熱錢(qián)"規(guī)模,并應(yīng)用此新方法重新測(cè)算了2003年至2011年期間凈流入我國(guó)的"熱錢(qián)"規(guī)模。研究結(jié)果顯示,"熱錢(qián)"流入的趨勢(shì)特征與這一時(shí)期國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)變化及資本市場(chǎng)發(fā)展基本吻合,具有明顯的順周期性特征,這為加強(qiáng)逆周期的跨境資本流動(dòng)管理提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, hot money has become a hot issue in domestic academic circles.Since there is still controversy about how to define "hot money", there is no uniform caliber and standard method for estimating the scale of "hot money".The traditional "hot money" estimation method is mainly divided into direct method and indirect method, but these two methods can not effectively measure the scale of "hot money" hidden under trade item, and this is the most important channel for "hot money" to enter and exit the domestic market at present.Therefore, from the perspective of theory, this paper puts forward how to estimate the scale of "hot money" hidden under trade item, and remeasures the scale of "hot money" flowing into China from 2003 to 2011 by using this new method.The results show that the trend of "hot money" inflow basically coincides with the changes of domestic economic situation and the development of capital market during this period, and has obvious pro-cyclical characteristics.This provides a scientific basis for strengthening counter-cyclical management of cross-border capital flows.
【作者單位】： 上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;中國(guó)中投證券有限責(zé)任公司;
【基金】：2011年度教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)重點(diǎn)研究基地重大項(xiàng)目“金融市場(chǎng)一體化發(fā)展與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制”(項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)號(hào):11JJD790015) 上海市哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃課題“建立宏觀(guān)審慎管理框架下的我國(guó)對(duì)外債務(wù)管理體系研究”(項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)號(hào):2014BJL005)的資助
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6

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