本文選題：外匯儲備　切入點：經(jīng)濟成本　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：外匯儲備一直是國際金融界的熱門話題,特別是中國的外匯儲備。近年來,中國的外匯儲備逐年增長,自2000年至2013年12月,我國外匯儲備年均復(fù)合增長率達到27.3%,而同樣是外匯儲備大國的日本在此期間的增長幅度只有10.28%,中國外匯儲備年均復(fù)合增長率大幅高于日本。據(jù)中國人民銀行數(shù)據(jù),至2013年12月底,中國的外匯儲備已達到3.82萬億美元,是同一時間日本外匯儲備(1.26萬億美元)的3倍,如此巨額的外匯儲備在滿足對外貿(mào)易需求、應(yīng)對國際收支平衡、提升我國綜合國力和國際地位的同時,也增加了我國持有外匯儲備的成本。本文在以往文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合分析了中國外匯儲備的總成本,包括經(jīng)濟成本和社會成本。經(jīng)濟成本主要有機會成本、沖銷成本和資本損失,社會成本主要是缺口成本和通貨膨脹成本。本文通過測度發(fā)現(xiàn),中國的外匯儲備面臨著巨額的機會成本、沖銷成本和資本損失。通過外匯儲備缺口成本的分析,認為彌補社保缺口可以促進當(dāng)期消費,擴大內(nèi)需,從而促進經(jīng)濟增長。外匯儲備的通貨膨脹成本主要是由于人們的適應(yīng)性預(yù)期,對通貨膨脹形成慣性,即使央行采取措施進行沖銷,這種影響依然存在。在詳細分析中國外匯儲備成本的基礎(chǔ)上,本文提出了控制外匯儲備成本的有效措施：優(yōu)化外匯儲備幣種結(jié)構(gòu),降低美元資產(chǎn)比例,適當(dāng)減少美國國債比例,增加美國股票比例,降低外匯儲備機會成本和資本損失；優(yōu)化沖銷手段,降低外匯儲備沖銷成本；利用外匯儲備彌補社保基金缺口；推進人民幣國際化,降低外匯儲備規(guī)模,減少外匯儲備總成本。
[Abstract]:Foreign exchange reserves have always been a hot topic in the international financial world, especially China's foreign exchange reserves.In recent years, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased year by year, from 2000 to 2013,The average annual compound growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves is 27.30.Japan, which is also a big foreign exchange reserve country, has only 10.28 percent growth rate in this period. The average annual compound growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves is much higher than that of Japan's.According to the people's Bank of China, by the end of December 2013, China's foreign exchange reserves had reached 3.82 trillion US dollars, three times the amount of Japan's foreign exchange reserves of 1.26 trillion US dollars at the same time.In response to the balance of international payments and to enhance our comprehensive national strength and international status, it also increases the cost of holding foreign exchange reserves.Based on the previous literatures, this paper analyzes the total cost of China's foreign exchange reserve, including economic cost and social cost.Economic costs are mainly opportunity costs, sterilisation costs and capital losses, while social costs are mainly gap costs and inflation costs.This paper finds that China's foreign exchange reserves face huge opportunity costs, sterilisation costs and capital losses.Through the analysis of the cost of foreign exchange reserve gap, it is concluded that making up the social security gap can promote current consumption, expand domestic demand and promote economic growth.The inflation costs of foreign exchange reserves are largely due to adaptive expectations and inertia to inflation, an effect that persists even if the central bank takes measures to write off.Based on the detailed analysis of the cost of China's foreign exchange reserves, this paper puts forward some effective measures to control the cost of foreign exchange reserves: optimizing the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves, reducing the proportion of US dollar assets, appropriately reducing the proportion of US Treasury bonds, and increasing the proportion of American stocks.Reduce the opportunity cost and capital loss of foreign exchange reserve; optimize the sterilisation method to reduce the cost of sterilizing foreign exchange reserve; use foreign exchange reserve to make up the gap of social security fund; promote the internationalization of RMB, reduce the scale of foreign exchange reserve and reduce the total cost of foreign exchange reserve.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：1703568