本文選題：人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)　切入點(diǎn)：少兒撫養(yǎng)比　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)異乎尋常的高儲(chǔ)蓄率成為國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究的熱點(diǎn)，其解釋的角度也不盡相同。目前中國(guó)的居民儲(chǔ)蓄率接近30%，這被普遍認(rèn)為是導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)動(dòng)力不足的原因之一。本文構(gòu)建了引入人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變量（少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比）的中國(guó)居民儲(chǔ)蓄函數(shù)模型，采用中國(guó)1978-2012年時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)，通過協(xié)整分析、向量自回歸模型（VAR）以及格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)等方法，對(duì)少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比變化對(duì)中國(guó)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：（1）少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比與居民儲(chǔ)蓄率之間存在長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系，，少兒人口撫養(yǎng)比每增加1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，居民儲(chǔ)蓄率就會(huì)降低0.43個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而老年撫養(yǎng)比每增加1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，居民儲(chǔ)蓄率將上升0.23個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；（2）撫養(yǎng)比與儲(chǔ)蓄率之間存在單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。即解釋變量少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比的變化是影響我國(guó)居民儲(chǔ)蓄變動(dòng)的原因；（3）脈沖響應(yīng)圖形表明，少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比的變動(dòng)對(duì)居民儲(chǔ)蓄增長(zhǎng)率的影響分別為負(fù)和正，即隨著少兒撫養(yǎng)比的上升，居民儲(chǔ)蓄增長(zhǎng)率下降，隨著老年撫養(yǎng)比的上升，居民儲(chǔ)蓄增長(zhǎng)率增加。
[Abstract]:The unusually high savings rate in China has become a hot topic for scholars at home and abroad. At present, the household savings rate in China is close to 30%, which is generally considered to be one of the reasons for the lack of domestic consumption power. This paper constructs the introduction of population age structure variables (child dependency ratio and child dependency ratio). The Chinese resident savings function model based on the old age dependency ratio, Using Chinese time series data from 1978 to 2012, using cointegration analysis, vector autoregressive model (VARs) and Granger causality test, etc. This paper makes an empirical study on the influence of children's dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio on Chinese residents' savings. The empirical study shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between children's dependency ratio and old age's dependency ratio and resident savings rate. For every 1 percentage point increase in the dependency ratio of the child population, the resident savings rate will be reduced by 0.43 percentage points, while the old-age dependency ratio will increase by 1 percentage point. There is a one-way Granger causality relationship between the dependency ratio and the savings rate. The impulse response figure shows that, The influence of children's dependency ratio and old age's dependency ratio on the growth rate of residents' savings is negative and positive respectively, that is, with the increase of children's dependency ratio, the rate of resident's saving growth rate decreases, and with the increase of old age's dependency ratio, the resident's savings growth rate increases.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24;F832.22

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