本文選題：貨幣政策　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策作為宏觀調(diào)控的重要手段,不僅對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量有著重大影響,其對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展及其結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整亦存在著重要作用。當(dāng)面對(duì)同樣的貨幣政策沖擊時(shí),各產(chǎn)業(yè)由于在產(chǎn)業(yè)屬性、生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)、融資特征等諸多方面存在差異,因而會(huì)對(duì)貨幣政策有不同反應(yīng),從而會(huì)進(jìn)一步影響到產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展及結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整。對(duì)貨幣政策實(shí)施效果的考察,不應(yīng)當(dāng)僅僅局限于其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的總體影響,還應(yīng)當(dāng)延伸到其對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展及結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的范疇。隨著我國現(xiàn)代貨幣政策框架體系的不斷完善,我國央行運(yùn)用各種貨幣政策工具實(shí)施貨幣政策意圖的能力也愈發(fā)提高,然而貨幣政策在從總量上調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí),其對(duì)各產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響并非是同質(zhì)的。本文主要研究了我國貨幣政策對(duì)不同產(chǎn)業(yè)及其內(nèi)部行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)是否存在著結(jié)構(gòu)性影響,并在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步探討了其背后形成機(jī)制。通過理論與實(shí)證分析,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)我國貨幣政策不僅對(duì)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)之間而且對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部行業(yè)均存在著結(jié)構(gòu)性影響。目前,在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)總量高速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),亦存在著經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展不平衡的問題。貨幣政策不應(yīng)僅僅局限于傳統(tǒng)意義上的總量需求調(diào)控,還應(yīng)逐步延伸到保障產(chǎn)業(yè)按合理結(jié)構(gòu)均衡發(fā)展的范疇。在提出研究問題的基礎(chǔ)上,本文首先梳理了貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的理論發(fā)展脈絡(luò),并回顧了有關(guān)中國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)方面的文獻(xiàn),在此基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)了現(xiàn)有的關(guān)于貨幣政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的研究文獻(xiàn)。沿著貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道,本文分析了貨幣政策對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)性影響的理論基礎(chǔ),闡述了產(chǎn)業(yè)的不同屬性與特征會(huì)使得貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)至各產(chǎn)業(yè)的效果存在差異,從而為全文的實(shí)證分析打下理論基礎(chǔ)。在實(shí)證分析中,本文基于上市公司的微觀數(shù)據(jù),采用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,比較了貨幣政策對(duì)于三次產(chǎn)業(yè)及其內(nèi)部行業(yè)產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)的影響。通過實(shí)證分析可知,我國貨幣政策對(duì)第二和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)有著顯著作用,而對(duì)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)影響不顯著,并且貨幣政策變動(dòng)對(duì)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響大于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)。因而近年來我國貨幣供應(yīng)量的較快增加,推動(dòng)了第二和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,但在一定程度上更有利于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。與此同時(shí),我國貨幣政策對(duì)第二和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部行業(yè)亦存在著結(jié)構(gòu)性影響,貨幣政策對(duì)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)資本密集型行業(yè)影響程度最大,技術(shù)密集型行業(yè)其次,最后是勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè),從整體上看,貨幣政策對(duì)技術(shù)密集型行業(yè)的影響處于相對(duì)有利的中間地位；第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi),貨幣政策則是對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的影響大于消費(fèi)性服務(wù)業(yè)。為深入理解貨幣政策對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)性影響,本文將2003年以來的貨幣政策劃分成相對(duì)寬松和相對(duì)緊縮時(shí)期,并對(duì)比了這兩個(gè)時(shí)期貨幣政策對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響,本文的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,相對(duì)緊縮時(shí)期的貨幣政策更加有利于技術(shù)密集型和生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展。通過理論和實(shí)證分析后,為厘清貨幣政策是如何對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)形成結(jié)構(gòu)性影響的,本文分別從債務(wù)融資規(guī)模、債務(wù)融資成本以及股權(quán)融資規(guī)模三個(gè)角度研究了其形成機(jī)制。在債務(wù)融資規(guī)模機(jī)制中,本文首先考察貨幣政策是否會(huì)引發(fā)產(chǎn)業(yè)的債務(wù)融資規(guī)模變動(dòng),并進(jìn)一步考察產(chǎn)業(yè)的債務(wù)融資規(guī)模變動(dòng)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響。本文的研究表明,貨幣政策通過債務(wù)融資規(guī)模對(duì)各產(chǎn)業(yè)及其內(nèi)部行業(yè)的影響程度是不同的,因而債務(wù)融資規(guī)模是貨幣政策對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)性影響機(jī)制之一。遵循這樣的思路,本文的研究繼而發(fā)現(xiàn)債務(wù)融資成本以及股權(quán)融資規(guī)模也是形成貨幣政策對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)性影響的重要原因。最后,全文提出政府在制定貨幣政策過程中的相關(guān)建議,政府需要充分考慮到貨幣政策對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)性影響,除此之外我國還應(yīng)當(dāng)在深化銀行業(yè)體制和結(jié)構(gòu)改革、積極推動(dòng)資本市場(chǎng)發(fā)展以及推動(dòng)利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程等方面制定相應(yīng)的政策。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy as an important means of macroeconomic regulation and control, not only has a significant impact on the total economy, the industrial development and structural adjustment also has an important role. When faced with the same monetary policy impact, the industry in the industrial property, production and operation, different characteristics of financing and other aspects, which will have different responses to monetary policy, which will further affect the industrial development and structural adjustment. The influences on the implementation effect of monetary policy, should not be confined to its overall impact on economic variables, should also be extended to the development of the industry and the category of structural adjustment. With China's modern monetary policy framework continues to improve my ability the central bank's use of various monetary policy tools to implement monetary policy intentions are increasingly improved, however, monetary policy in the regulation of economy in China at the same time, the industry. Ring is not homogeneous. This paper mainly studies the output growth of China's monetary policy on industry and its internal industry whether there are structural effects, and on this basis to further explore the mechanism behind the formation. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper found that China's monetary policy not only between the three industries and the internal industry there are structural effects. At present, in China's economic growth at the same time, there is also unreasonable economic structure, industrial development is not balanced. The regulation of monetary policy should not be confined to the traditional sense of the total demand, should also be gradually extended to the security industry according to the balanced development of reasonable structure in the category. Based on the research questions, the paper firstly reviews the theoretical development of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and a review of the relevant aspects of the monetary policy conduction China paper Xian, on the basis of summarizing the existing about monetary policy and industry development research. Along the transmission channel of monetary policy, this paper analyzes the theoretical basis of the industrial structure effect of monetary policy, elaborates the different attributes and characteristics of the industry will make monetary policy conduction to the industry differences, so as to lay a theory foundation for the empirical analysis. In the empirical analysis, the micro data of listed companies based on the panel data model to compare the monetary policy for the three industry and its internal industry output growth impact. The empirical analysis shows that, there are significant effects of output growth of China's monetary policy on the second and the third industry. While no significant effect on the primary industry, and the influence of changes in monetary policy to the second industry more than third industries. In recent years, China's money supply increased faster Second and third, to promote the development of industry, but more conducive to the development of the second industry to a certain extent. At the same time, China's monetary policy on the second and third industries internal also exist structural effects of monetary policy on the second industry in the capital intensive industry influence, technology intensive industry is the second, at last labor intensive industries, on the whole, the impact of monetary policy on technology intensive industries in the middle position relatively favorable; third in the industry, is the impact of monetary policy on producer services than consumer services. For the structural impact of monetary policy on the in-depth understanding of the industry, since 2003 monetary policy is divided into relatively loose and relatively tight monetary policy in this period, and the influence of the two stages of the industrial development of the contrast, the empirical results show that the phase of austerity The monetary policy is more conducive to the development of technology intensive and productive service industry. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, to clarify how the monetary policy form the structural impact on the industry, this paper from the three aspects of debt financing scale, the cost of debt financing and equity financing scale to study the formation mechanism in financing. The scale mechanism of debt, this paper examines whether monetary policy will cause the industry's debt financing scale changes, and further study the industry debt financing scale changes impact on the development of the industry. This study shows that monetary policy through debt financing scale impact on the industry and its internal industry is different, so the debt financing scale is one of the industry's structural impact mechanism of monetary policy. According to this idea, this paper studies and found the cost of debt financing and equity An important reason is the formation of the scale of financing structural monetary policy impact on the industry. Finally, the paper puts forward related suggestions of government in the process of formulating monetary policy, the government needs to give full consideration to the structural effects of monetary policy on the industry, in addition our country should also be in the banking system and deepen structural reform, actively promote the capital market the development and promote the interest rate marketization process to develop appropriate policies.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F121.3

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