本文關鍵詞： 外匯儲備 適度規(guī)模 內外均衡　出處：《云南財經大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：從1978年改革開放時的“外匯短缺”到2013年1季度末外匯儲備規(guī)模相當于德國經濟總量并于年底增至3.8萬億美元，短短36年間我國外匯儲備增長了近兩萬三千倍。我國外匯儲備的持續(xù)增長，引起了學術界對于我國外匯儲備規(guī)模適度性的廣泛研究分析。 我國外匯儲備持續(xù)性的高速增長背后的真正根源是我國經濟發(fā)展的內部失衡和外部失衡。內需相對不足、金融市場運行效率低，過剩的儲蓄只能以順差的形式流向國外；另一方面，像中國這種發(fā)展中國家在發(fā)達國家主導的貨幣體系內開展貿易，必然會累積大量的外匯儲備。 為厘清外匯儲備的來源，我們從國家外匯管理局中國國際收支平衡表里看出我國的外匯儲備主要來自于經常項目順差和資本與金融項目順差，另外還有熱錢、居民外幣儲蓄轉化、外匯儲備投資收益等�；卮稹巴鈪R儲備都去哪兒了？”這個問題，則比較困難，由于相關權威性數據缺失，我們只能大致得出以美元資產為主，大部分以長期美債形式存在的結論。 另外，經過分析，我們也得出了外匯儲備高增長的三個原因，國內儲蓄過剩、以加工貿易為主的貿易方式和長期存在的人民幣升值預期。 本文的主旨在于探討我國的外匯儲備規(guī)模是否適度、如果過大如何減少的問題。本文通過構造了一個內外均衡的理論分析框架，在保持邏輯嚴密性的條件下，分別選取出了衡量內部均衡和外部均衡的指標，經過數據收集、整理、計算，得出我國經濟內部均衡和外部均衡都處于失衡狀態(tài)，外匯儲備規(guī)模過大，但維持超額的外匯儲備可以保證就業(yè)的穩(wěn)定。 在證實了外匯儲備規(guī)模過大的論斷后，我們分析了巨額的外匯儲備給我國經濟帶來的正面和負面的影響。因為外匯儲備的核心功能在于維護人民幣信心，而負面影響包括央行貨幣政策獨立性受損、宏觀調控難度加大、持有成本過高及自我強化的惡性循環(huán)機制。 由于外匯儲備規(guī)模過大，弊大于利，本文最后分別從減少外匯供給、增大外匯需求、提升我國金融市場效率改變我國參與國際資本循環(huán)方式和基于內外均衡模型提出的改變經濟增長方式四個方面提出了外匯儲備規(guī)模過大的化解之道。 在論文的中國外匯儲備概況部分，，提及了我國外匯儲備的兩個投資運營模式：大部分外匯儲備由外匯管理局投資美元證券為代表的外幣證券，少部分由以中國投資有限公司等主權財富基金投資于境外的股權、固定收益和另類投資。最后，針對2014年1月底的朱長虹離職事件，本文提出應給予國家首席投資官更多理解，控制外匯儲備規(guī)模是第一位的，提高外匯儲備的收益率是第二位的看法。
[Abstract]:From the "shortage of foreign exchange" in the period of reform and opening up in 1978 to the end of the first quarter of 2013, the size of foreign exchange reserves was equivalent to the German economy and increased to 3.8 tillion US dollars at the end of the year. In a short period of 36 years, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased by nearly 23,000 times. The sustained growth of China's foreign exchange reserves has caused extensive research and analysis on the appropriateness of China's foreign exchange reserves in academic circles. The real root behind the sustained rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves is the internal and external imbalances of China's economic development.The domestic demand is relatively insufficient, the financial market is inefficient, and surplus savings can only flow to foreign countries in the form of surplus. On the other hand, developing countries such as China are bound to accumulate large foreign exchange reserves by trading in developed-dominated monetary systems. In order to clarify the sources of foreign exchange reserves, we can see from the balance of payments table of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange that China's foreign exchange reserves mainly come from the current account surplus, the capital and financial account surplus, and hot money. The conversion of residents' foreign currency savings and investment income from foreign exchange reserves, etc., answered, "where has the foreign exchange reserves gone?" "this is a more difficult question. Because of the lack of authoritative data, we can only draw the conclusion that dollar assets are the majority, and most of them are in the form of long-term U.S. debt. In addition, through analysis, we have also found three reasons for the high growth of foreign exchange reserves, the excess of domestic savings, the trade mode dominated by processing trade and the long-existing expectation of RMB appreciation. The main purpose of this paper is to discuss whether the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is appropriate and how to reduce it if it is too large. This paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework of internal and external equilibrium, under the condition of maintaining strict logic, The indexes to measure internal and external equilibrium are selected respectively. After data collection, collation and calculation, it is concluded that the internal equilibrium and external equilibrium of our economy are both out of balance, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large. But maintaining excess foreign exchange reserves will ensure employment stability. After confirming the argument that the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large, we have analyzed the positive and negative effects of the huge amount of foreign exchange reserves on our economy, because the core function of foreign exchange reserves is to maintain the confidence of the renminbi. The negative effects include the damage of the independence of the central bank's monetary policy, the increasing difficulty of macro-control, the high cost of holding and the self-reinforcing vicious circle mechanism. Because the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. Finally, this paper starts with reducing foreign exchange supply and increasing foreign exchange demand. Improving the efficiency of China's financial market and changing the mode of China's participation in the international capital cycle and changing the mode of economic growth based on the internal and external equilibrium model put forward four ways to resolve the excessive scale of foreign exchange reserves. In the part of the overview of China's foreign exchange reserves, the paper mentions two investment modes of China's foreign exchange reserves: most of the foreign exchange reserves are foreign currency securities represented by US dollar securities invested by safe. A small number of sovereign wealth funds, such as China Investment Co. Ltd, invest in foreign equity, fixed income and alternative investments. Finally, in view of the departure of Zhu Changhong at the end of January 2014, this paper suggests that national chief investment officers should be given more understanding. Control of the size of foreign exchange reserves is the first, foreign exchange reserves yield is the second view.
【學位授予單位】：云南財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

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