發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-02 03:15

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 黃金 投資功能 儲(chǔ)備功能 市場(chǎng)發(fā)展　出處：《上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著人類社會(huì)發(fā)展和國際貨幣體系的演化,黃金經(jīng)歷了從商品到貨幣再到商品(黃金非貨幣化)的曲折變化,黃金的歷史地位和作用也發(fā)生了相應(yīng)改變。在黃金充當(dāng)貨幣的年代,黃金一度發(fā)揮著價(jià)值尺度、交換媒介、支付手段、儲(chǔ)備貨幣、世界貨幣等全能貨幣的職能；黃金非貨幣化后,即1971年尼克松總統(tǒng)宣布關(guān)閉黃金窗口后,黃金的貨幣職能僅剩下儲(chǔ)備功能一項(xiàng)。同時(shí),由于黃金價(jià)格隨行就市,黃金和股票、債券等其他金融資產(chǎn)一樣成為市場(chǎng)投資熱品。但近兩年來,隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的日漸復(fù)蘇,黃金的投資功能似乎有所減弱。2013年,國際金價(jià)在經(jīng)歷12年連年上漲后,首度大跌29%。加之,黃金儲(chǔ)備收益率偏低、持有黃金儲(chǔ)備機(jī)會(huì)成本偏高等問題,又引起各國央行對(duì)于黃金儲(chǔ)備管理和運(yùn)用的困惑。持有黃金的意義究竟何在?如何評(píng)估黃金的金融功能?如何投資黃金?黃金儲(chǔ)備的適度規(guī)模多大?這些問題都是近40年來國內(nèi)外黃金研究的重點(diǎn),但并未形成共識(shí)。 本文綜述了與黃金有關(guān)的國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)與黃金貨幣職能相關(guān)的研究伴隨黃金非貨幣化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)而逐步減少,而黃金金融屬性方面的研究卻在黃金非貨化后成為研究熱點(diǎn)。黃金非貨幣化后,黃金的金融屬性主要表現(xiàn)在投資和儲(chǔ)備兩個(gè)方面。 本文梳理了黃金從一般商品到特殊商品的演變歷史,分析了黃金在自由兌換、有限兌換和不可兌換條件下金融功能的演變進(jìn)程。指出黃金非貨幣化具有一定的必然性,這是黃金貨幣供給不足與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展之間矛盾運(yùn)動(dòng)的結(jié)果。同時(shí),黃金非貨幣化是不充分的,黃金仍在一定程度上保留了儲(chǔ)備貨幣的功能,這一狀況反映了美元作為國際貨幣的內(nèi)在缺陷和問題。近年來,受美、歐等發(fā)達(dá)國家量化寬松政策影響,黃金對(duì)一國海外資產(chǎn)的投資配置作用不斷提升,對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)國家而言,黃金儲(chǔ)備功能也有待進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化。另外,在商品金融化趨勢(shì)下,受地緣政治沖突、各類經(jīng)濟(jì)金融危機(jī)、美元持續(xù)貶值等因素的影響,黃金的投資功能也在不斷強(qiáng)化。 黃金投資功能主要表現(xiàn)在避險(xiǎn)、對(duì)沖、保值等方面。黃金特殊的投資功能與金價(jià)波動(dòng)的特殊性密切相關(guān)。本文運(yùn)用GJR_GARCH模型和Markov機(jī)制轉(zhuǎn)換模型,分別分析了金價(jià)波動(dòng)的不對(duì)稱性和長(zhǎng)周期性。金價(jià)波動(dòng)的不對(duì)稱性是指在正負(fù)沖擊的影響下,金價(jià)表現(xiàn)出與證券市場(chǎng)相反的波動(dòng)性,即當(dāng)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境惡化時(shí),金價(jià)更趨向于上漲。這凸顯了黃金的避險(xiǎn)效應(yīng)。長(zhǎng)周期性是指金價(jià)波動(dòng)一旦形成趨勢(shì),將維持較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。長(zhǎng)周期性的分析指出了購買黃金的最佳時(shí)期是在金價(jià)開始呈現(xiàn)大幅上漲趨勢(shì)時(shí)。金價(jià)波動(dòng)特征的分析,為深入研究黃金的投資和儲(chǔ)備功能奠定了價(jià)格基礎(chǔ)。在投資功能分析方面,本文對(duì)黃金的避險(xiǎn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)沖以及金融保值功能進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),認(rèn)為黃金這三方面的投資效應(yīng)都是客觀存在的。在儲(chǔ)備功能方面,本文采用比較分析法,剖析了美、歐、日、英、瑞士等發(fā)達(dá)國家以及金磚四國等新興市場(chǎng)國家黃金儲(chǔ)備總量的變化特征和影響黃金儲(chǔ)備的歷史及現(xiàn)實(shí)原因,綜合分析了各國黃金儲(chǔ)備的管理及運(yùn)用模式,并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了我國黃金儲(chǔ)備管理的指標(biāo)體系,測(cè)算了最優(yōu)黃金儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模。本文認(rèn)為,短期我國黃金儲(chǔ)備的最優(yōu)規(guī)模為2500噸左右,中長(zhǎng)期最優(yōu)規(guī)模在5000噸左右。 最后,從國情來看,我國黃金市場(chǎng)發(fā)展起步較晚,還存在諸多不利于發(fā)揮黃金投資和儲(chǔ)備功能的障礙�；诖�,本文分析了我國黃金市場(chǎng)發(fā)展中存在的問題,并從優(yōu)化黃金金融功能的視角,提出建立我國黃金市場(chǎng)做市商制度、完善我國商業(yè)銀行賬戶金、優(yōu)化我國黃金儲(chǔ)備的管理和運(yùn)用等政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of the human society and the evolution of the international monetary system, gold has experienced from commodities to currencies and commodities (non monetary gold) the twists and turns, the historical status and role of gold also changed. In the age of gold as currency, gold has played a measure of value, medium of exchange, means of payment, reserve the world currency, currency Almighty currency; non monetary gold, in 1971, President Nixon announced the closing of the gold window, the currency function of gold only a reserve function. At the same time, as the price of gold coins, gold and stocks, bonds and other financial assets as investment goods market hot. But in the past two years the United States, with the growing economic recovery, gold investment function seems to have weakened in.2013, the international price of gold in the experience of 12 years after the first drop rise year after year, coupled with 29%., received gold reserves Interest rate is low, the opportunity cost of holding gold reserves high, and caused confusion on the management and use of the central bank holdings of gold gold reserves. What is the meaning? How to evaluate the financial function of gold investment gold? How much? The moderate scale of gold reserves? These problems are the focus of research at home and abroad in gold in 40 years, but has not reached a consensus.
This paper reviews the gold related literature at home and abroad, and found gold currency related functions with non monetary gold process and gradually reduced, and studies the financial attribute of gold in gold after the non goods has become a research hotspot. The non monetary gold, gold's financial property mainly in two in terms of investment and reserves.
This paper reviews the evolution history of gold from the general merchandise to the special commodity, analysis of gold in the free exchange, evolution of financial function and non convertible limited convertibility conditions. It is pointed out that non monetary gold is inevitable, this is the contradiction between the rapid development of lack of gold money supply and world economy. At the same time, non monetary gold is not sufficient, gold is still in a certain extent retained the reserve currency, and this reflects the dollar as the inherent defects and problems of international currency. In recent years, by the United States, Europe and other developed countries the quantitative easing policy, the gold investment allocation function of a country's overseas assets rising of emerging market countries, gold reserves function has to be further optimized. In addition, the goods under the trend of financial and geopolitical conflicts, various economic and financial crisis, the dollar held The influence of continued devaluation and other factors, the investment function of gold is also constantly strengthening.
Gold investment mainly in the hedge, hedging, hedging and other aspects. The particularity of gold special investment function and price fluctuations are closely related. This paper uses the GJR_GARCH model and the Markov mechanism transformation model, respectively analyzes the asymmetry and long periodic fluctuations in the price of gold. Gold price fluctuation asymmetry refers to the effects of positive and negative impact. The price of gold, and show the fluctuation of stock market on the contrary, when the macroeconomic environment worsens, the price tends to rise. This highlights the effects of gold hedging. Long period refers to the gold price fluctuation trend once formed, will maintain a longer period of time. Analysis of long periodic points out the best time to buy gold in the price of gold began to show a rising trend. Analysis of the characteristics of price fluctuations, laid the foundation for further study of the price of gold investment and reserve function. In this paper, the function of investment analysis. Of gold hedging, risk hedging and financial hedging function was tested, that the investment effect of gold in these three aspects is objective existence. In the functional reserve, this paper uses the method of comparative analysis, analysis of the beautiful, day, Europe, Britain, Switzerland and other developed countries and the BRICs and other emerging market countries gold reserves the total variation characteristics and influence of the gold reserves of the historical and realistic reasons, a comprehensive analysis of the national gold reserves management and application model is established based on the index system of gold reserve management in China, estimates the optimal size of the gold reserves. This paper argues that the optimal size of China's short-term gold reserves of 2500 tons. The long-term optimal scale of 5000 tons.
Finally, from the situation, the development of China's gold market started late, there are still many not conducive to gold investment and reserve function obstacle. Based on this, this paper analyses the existing problems in the development of the gold market, gold and from the optimization of financial function perspective, proposed the establishment of the gold market maker system in our country, perfect our country commercial bank accounts, optimize the management and use of gold reserves in China and policy recommendations.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.54

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