本文關(guān)鍵詞： 農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展 農(nóng)村消費(fèi) 實(shí)證分析 甘肅省　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式的轉(zhuǎn)型,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)出口的依存度逐漸降低,投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用也逐漸疲軟,這使得消費(fèi)成為拉動(dòng)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主力軍,在城鎮(zhèn)消費(fèi)逐步飽和的情況下,深度挖掘農(nóng)村消費(fèi)刻不容緩,而在眾多影響消費(fèi)的因素中,金融的作用是舉足輕重的,金融對(duì)消費(fèi)有極大的推動(dòng)作用。甘肅省作為典型的西部欠發(fā)達(dá)省份,其農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展緩慢,如果能夠借助其農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展有效的開拓甘肅省農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng),將會(huì)對(duì)甘肅省農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展甚至國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)的開發(fā)產(chǎn)生重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先針對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對(duì)農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)影響的研究進(jìn)行綜述,然后回顧農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展以及農(nóng)村消費(fèi)相關(guān)理論,梳理學(xué)者對(duì)農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展理論及農(nóng)村消費(fèi)理論的主要論點(diǎn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對(duì)農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)影響的作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行理論分析,認(rèn)為農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展可以通過促進(jìn)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、促進(jìn)農(nóng)民收入增加、擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)需求總量、促進(jìn)農(nóng)村消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)四方面來(lái)促進(jìn)農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展。 在實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)之前,對(duì)甘肅省農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展和農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,對(duì)甘肅省農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的研究主要分為金融規(guī)模、金融效率、金融結(jié)構(gòu)三個(gè)方面,對(duì)甘肅省農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)的研究也分為三個(gè)方面：人均消費(fèi)水平、消費(fèi)差距、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu),針對(duì)現(xiàn)狀指出目前甘肅省農(nóng)村金融及農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)存在的不足。在實(shí)證部分,選取1988-2009年間甘肅省相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用規(guī)范分析與實(shí)證分析方法,通過建立模型以及經(jīng)過單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)及協(xié)整方程、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)分析等實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)方法從消費(fèi)需求和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)兩個(gè)方面來(lái)研究甘肅省農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對(duì)農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的影響；然后,得出甘肅省農(nóng)村金發(fā)展能夠有效促進(jìn)農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的結(jié)論,并給出相關(guān)改善甘肅省農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展的建議,以期能為促進(jìn)甘肅省農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展提供可能的參考。
[Abstract]:With the transformation of our country's economic growth mode, the dependence of economic growth on exports is gradually decreasing, and the pulling effect of investment on the economy is gradually weakening, which makes consumption become the main force to stimulate the economic growth of our country. In the case of gradual saturation of urban consumption, it is urgent to dig into rural consumption in depth, and the role of finance is very important among the many factors that affect consumption. As a typical underdeveloped western province, Gansu Province has a slow development of rural consumer market, if it can effectively open up the rural consumer market of Gansu Province with the help of its rural financial development. It will play an important role in the development of rural economy and even domestic consumption in Gansu Province. In this paper, the domestic and foreign scholars on the impact of rural financial development on the rural consumer market were reviewed, and then reviewed the rural financial development and rural consumption related theories. Combing the main arguments of scholars on rural financial development theory and rural consumption theory. On this basis, the impact of rural financial development on rural consumer market mechanism is theoretically analyzed. It is believed that rural financial development can promote the development of rural consumption market by promoting rural economic development, promoting the increase of farmers' income, expanding the total amount of consumption demand and promoting the upgrading of rural consumption structure. Before the empirical test, the paper analyzes the current situation of rural financial development and rural consumer market in Gansu Province. The research on the current situation of rural financial development in Gansu Province is mainly divided into financial scale and financial efficiency. Three aspects of financial structure, Gansu Province rural consumer market research is also divided into three aspects: per capita consumption level, consumption gap, consumption structure. To point out the current situation of Gansu Province rural finance and rural consumer market deficiencies. In the empirical part, select 1988-2009 relevant data in Gansu Province, using normative analysis and empirical analysis methods. Granger causality test is established by establishing model, unit root test, cointegration test and cointegration equation. The impact of rural financial development on rural consumption market in Gansu Province is studied from two aspects of consumption demand and consumption structure by using impulse response analysis and other empirical testing methods. Then, the paper draws the conclusion that the development of rural gold can effectively promote the development of rural consumer market in Gansu Province, and gives some suggestions to improve the rural financial development of Gansu Province. In order to promote the development of rural financial markets in Gansu Province to provide possible reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.35;F323.8

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