本文關(guān)鍵詞： 境外美元 國(guó)際貨幣政策 金融危機(jī)　出處：《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治》2012年01期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：關(guān)鍵貨幣境外余額是重要的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)變量,它不僅會(huì)影響關(guān)鍵貨幣的國(guó)際地位和全球金融市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定,也關(guān)系到境外關(guān)鍵貨幣持有國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定和儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)安全。關(guān)鍵貨幣國(guó)通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)、外交甚至軍事手段對(duì)境外貨幣余額的規(guī)模、資產(chǎn)配置、地區(qū)分布以及持有者結(jié)構(gòu)實(shí)施管理,以便實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)外融資、獲取經(jīng)濟(jì)安全和榨取財(cái)富等多重目標(biāo)。在金融危機(jī)背景下,基于經(jīng)濟(jì)安全、國(guó)際博弈和對(duì)外融資的目的,美國(guó)大致會(huì)階段性地吸引美元回流并調(diào)控其在國(guó)外的分布,但美元霸權(quán)地位和美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的兩黨政治體制將使其境外美元余額的規(guī)模在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)張,因此人民幣近期仍面臨升值壓力,歐洲和新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家金融動(dòng)蕩將會(huì)持續(xù)甚至加劇。隨著中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的下跌,美元的升值和回流在中期時(shí)段內(nèi)可能會(huì)沖擊中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定;如果美國(guó)不能控制其財(cái)政赤字,中國(guó)將長(zhǎng)期面臨美債和美元違約的巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。中國(guó)需要降低宏觀脆弱性,加速調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式,從根本上擺脫美元陷阱。
[Abstract]:The foreign balance of key currencies is an important international economic variable, which will not only affect the international status of key currencies and the stability of global financial markets. It is also related to the economic stability and reserve asset security of the key currency holders. The key currency countries use economic, diplomatic and even military means to scale the balance of foreign currency and allocate assets. Regional distribution and holder structure are managed in order to achieve multiple objectives of external financing, access to economic security and exploitation of wealth. In the context of the financial crisis, based on economic security. For the purpose of international game and external financing, the United States will attract the return of US dollar and control its distribution abroad. But the hegemonic position of the US dollar and the bipartisan political system in the US will further expand the size of its foreign dollar balance in the long run, so the RMB is still facing the pressure of appreciation in the near future. Financial turmoil in Europe and emerging market countries will continue or even intensify. As China's domestic asset prices fall, the appreciation and return of the US dollar may impact China's macroeconomic stability in the medium term. If the United States fails to control its fiscal deficit, China will face a long-term risk of defaulting on U.S. debt and the dollar. China needs to reduce its macro vulnerability, accelerate the adjustment of its economic development model, and fundamentally free itself from the dollar trap.
【作者單位】： 大連海事大學(xué)交通運(yùn)輸管理學(xué)院;中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治研究所;
【基金】：2010年教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究規(guī)劃基金項(xiàng)目“國(guó)際貨幣權(quán)力與中國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)美元霸權(quán)策略研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):10YJAGJW002)的階段性成果 長(zhǎng)策智庫(kù)“全球宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策項(xiàng)目(GMEP)”資助
【分類號(hào)】：F827.12;F124
【正文快照】： 近年來(lái),隨著美國(guó)國(guó)際收支逆差的持續(xù),境外美元(foreign dollar balances)的規(guī)模持續(xù)擴(kuò)大,目前已經(jīng)積累到約5.7萬(wàn)億美元之巨。①如此龐大規(guī)模的境外美元,掌握在哪些國(guó)家或私人機(jī)構(gòu)手中,被配置為何種資產(chǎn),外國(guó)政府和私人機(jī)構(gòu)在何時(shí)、以何種方式、多大力度重新配置其美元資產(chǎn)等

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