本文關(guān)鍵詞：當(dāng)代國際貨幣體系可持續(xù)性及治理研究　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國際貨幣體系可持續(xù)性 全球失衡 特里芬難題 治理架構(gòu) 金融發(fā)展

【摘要】：美國次貸危機(jī)和歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)讓世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景黯淡，而危機(jī)肇始于本世紀(jì)初以來主要國際貨幣發(fā)行國寬松的貨幣政策和財政政策。在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)之后，大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激和金融業(yè)拯救方案不僅沒有解決根本性的激勵困境，反而增加了長期的公共債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，損害了全球?qū)ζ浒l(fā)行的國際貨幣的信心。國際貨幣體系內(nèi)在的缺陷以及與之相伴的全球失衡是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的痼疾和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的根源，而廣義“特里芬難題”的存在更是使得當(dāng)前國際貨幣體系難以持續(xù)。本文以國際貨幣體系的可持續(xù)性為研究對象，重點(diǎn)考察單一信用貨幣充當(dāng)國際貨幣內(nèi)在的不穩(wěn)定性，國際貨幣體系治理架構(gòu)與全球失衡的演進(jìn)之間的關(guān)系，以及國際貨幣地位的影響因素。 首先，本文根據(jù)對當(dāng)前國際貨幣體系危機(jī)特征事實(shí)的總結(jié)以及文獻(xiàn)研究，基于國際貨幣的交易媒介職能和價值儲藏職能建立起具有一般性解釋力的理論模型。通過進(jìn)行跨期均衡分析和國際貨幣發(fā)行國不同政策場景的模擬，兩國模型揭示，國際貿(mào)易體系的崩潰源自于后發(fā)國家的貿(mào)易盈余被吸干，而國際金融體系的崩潰是因?yàn)檫^度積累的對外負(fù)債使得國際貨幣發(fā)行國不得不面臨外國對其償債能力的擔(dān)憂，由此引起對國際貨幣信心的失去。其次，基于兩個基本的理論模型，本文加入了后發(fā)國家貨幣部分國際化以及存在第三國的場景，豐富了國際流動性的供給形式，并分別考察了國際貨幣治理架構(gòu)的變化和先發(fā)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的萎縮對國際貨幣體系可持續(xù)性以及全球失衡的影響。最后，本文從歷史上的金本位，布雷頓森林體系以及后布雷頓森林體系的經(jīng)驗(yàn)出發(fā)，對影響國際貨幣地位的因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，以檢驗(yàn)本文的理論。 本文得出的基本結(jié)論是：（1）廣義“特里芬難題”的實(shí)質(zhì)在于國別貨幣充當(dāng)國際貨幣時，發(fā)行國難以避免國內(nèi)目標(biāo)和國際目標(biāo)的沖突，這會造成國際流動性的供給困難。（2）除了一國的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力之外，金融發(fā)展也是國際貨幣地位的重要決定因素。在金融市場上提供金融產(chǎn)品的比較優(yōu)勢可以使國際貨幣發(fā)行國通過回流的貨幣進(jìn)行融資，即在貿(mào)易赤字的情況下，通過發(fā)行債券來回收國際貨幣。（3）多種貨幣的競爭-合作關(guān)系有助于改善國際貨幣體系的可持續(xù)性，因?yàn)檫@樣的治理架構(gòu)可以解除單個國際貨幣發(fā)行國為了提供儲備資產(chǎn)而面臨的財政壓力，，即多國財政能力都可以被用于作為發(fā)行國際貨幣的抵押物的情形更加適應(yīng)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長的需要。此外，本文還對改革國際貨幣體系，改善全球金融治理，協(xié)調(diào)全球宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，中國金融市場發(fā)展和人民幣國際化等議題提出若干政策建議。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe have darkened the prospects for world economic growth, and the crisis began with the loose monetary and fiscal policies of the major international money issuers since the beginning of this century, after the economic crisis. Instead of solving the underlying incentive dilemma, massive economic stimulus and financial rescue packages have added to the long-term burden of public debt. The inherent shortcomings of the international monetary system and the accompanying global imbalances are the root causes of the chronic problems of the world economic system and the economic crisis. The existence of the broad sense of "Triffin problem" makes the current international monetary system difficult to sustain. This paper takes the sustainability of the international monetary system as the research object. This paper focuses on the internal instability of a single credit currency as an international currency, the relationship between the governance structure of the international monetary system and the evolution of global imbalances, and the influencing factors of the international monetary status. First of all, this paper based on the current international monetary system crisis characteristics of the summary of facts and literature research. A theoretical model with general explanatory power is established based on the functions of international currency as a trading medium and a store of value. Through the intertemporal equilibrium analysis and the simulation of different policy scenarios of the international currency issuing countries. The two-country model reveals that the collapse of the international trading system stemmed from the draining of the trade surpluses of the latecomers. The collapse of the international financial system is due to the excessive accumulation of external liabilities, the international monetary issuers have to face foreign concerns about their ability to repay, resulting in a loss of confidence in the international currency. Based on two basic theoretical models, this paper adds the internationalization of the currency of the developed countries and the existence of a third country, which enriches the supply of international liquidity. And the impact of the change of the international monetary governance structure and the shrinking of the economies of the developed countries on the sustainability of the international monetary system and global imbalances. Finally, this paper from the history of the gold standard. Based on the experience of the Bretton Woods system and the post-Bretton Woods system, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the international monetary status to test the theory of this paper. The basic conclusion of this paper is that the essence of the "Triffin problem" in the broad sense is that when the national currency acts as the international currency, it is difficult for the issuing countries to avoid the conflict between domestic and international objectives. This makes the supply of international liquidity difficult) in addition to a country's economic strength. Financial development is also an important determinant of the international monetary status. The comparative advantage of providing financial products in the financial market enables the international money issuing countries to finance through the returned currency, that is, in the case of trade deficits. The competitive-cooperative relationship of multiple currencies through the issuance of bonds to recover the international currency will help to improve the sustainability of the international monetary system. Because such a governance structure would relieve the fiscal pressure on individual international currency issuers to provide reserve assets. That is to say, the financial capacity of many countries can be used as collateral for the issue of international currency to meet the needs of the sustained growth of the world economy. In addition, this paper also aims to reform the international monetary system and improve global financial governance. Coordination of global macroeconomic policies, development of China's financial markets and internationalization of the renminbi.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F821

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本文編號：1427471