本文關(guān)鍵詞：當(dāng)代國(guó)際貨幣體系可持續(xù)性及治理研究　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國(guó)際貨幣體系可持續(xù)性 全球失衡 特里芬難題 治理架構(gòu) 金融發(fā)展

【摘要】：美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)和歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)讓世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景黯淡，而危機(jī)肇始于本世紀(jì)初以來(lái)主要國(guó)際貨幣發(fā)行國(guó)寬松的貨幣政策和財(cái)政政策。在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)之后，大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激和金融業(yè)拯救方案不僅沒(méi)有解決根本性的激勵(lì)困境，反而增加了長(zhǎng)期的公共債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，損害了全球?qū)ζ浒l(fā)行的國(guó)際貨幣的信心。國(guó)際貨幣體系內(nèi)在的缺陷以及與之相伴的全球失衡是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的痼疾和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的根源，而廣義“特里芬難題”的存在更是使得當(dāng)前國(guó)際貨幣體系難以持續(xù)。本文以國(guó)際貨幣體系的可持續(xù)性為研究對(duì)象，重點(diǎn)考察單一信用貨幣充當(dāng)國(guó)際貨幣內(nèi)在的不穩(wěn)定性，國(guó)際貨幣體系治理架構(gòu)與全球失衡的演進(jìn)之間的關(guān)系，以及國(guó)際貨幣地位的影響因素。 首先，本文根據(jù)對(duì)當(dāng)前國(guó)際貨幣體系危機(jī)特征事實(shí)的總結(jié)以及文獻(xiàn)研究，基于國(guó)際貨幣的交易媒介職能和價(jià)值儲(chǔ)藏職能建立起具有一般性解釋力的理論模型。通過(guò)進(jìn)行跨期均衡分析和國(guó)際貨幣發(fā)行國(guó)不同政策場(chǎng)景的模擬，兩國(guó)模型揭示，國(guó)際貿(mào)易體系的崩潰源自于后發(fā)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易盈余被吸干，而國(guó)際金融體系的崩潰是因?yàn)檫^(guò)度積累的對(duì)外負(fù)債使得國(guó)際貨幣發(fā)行國(guó)不得不面臨外國(guó)對(duì)其償債能力的擔(dān)憂，由此引起對(duì)國(guó)際貨幣信心的失去。其次，基于兩個(gè)基本的理論模型，本文加入了后發(fā)國(guó)家貨幣部分國(guó)際化以及存在第三國(guó)的場(chǎng)景，豐富了國(guó)際流動(dòng)性的供給形式，并分別考察了國(guó)際貨幣治理架構(gòu)的變化和先發(fā)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的萎縮對(duì)國(guó)際貨幣體系可持續(xù)性以及全球失衡的影響。最后，本文從歷史上的金本位，布雷頓森林體系以及后布雷頓森林體系的經(jīng)驗(yàn)出發(fā)，對(duì)影響國(guó)際貨幣地位的因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，以檢驗(yàn)本文的理論。 本文得出的基本結(jié)論是：（1）廣義“特里芬難題”的實(shí)質(zhì)在于國(guó)別貨幣充當(dāng)國(guó)際貨幣時(shí)，發(fā)行國(guó)難以避免國(guó)內(nèi)目標(biāo)和國(guó)際目標(biāo)的沖突，這會(huì)造成國(guó)際流動(dòng)性的供給困難。（2）除了一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力之外，金融發(fā)展也是國(guó)際貨幣地位的重要決定因素。在金融市場(chǎng)上提供金融產(chǎn)品的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)可以使國(guó)際貨幣發(fā)行國(guó)通過(guò)回流的貨幣進(jìn)行融資，即在貿(mào)易赤字的情況下，通過(guò)發(fā)行債券來(lái)回收國(guó)際貨幣。（3）多種貨幣的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)-合作關(guān)系有助于改善國(guó)際貨幣體系的可持續(xù)性，因?yàn)檫@樣的治理架構(gòu)可以解除單個(gè)國(guó)際貨幣發(fā)行國(guó)為了提供儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)而面臨的財(cái)政壓力，，即多國(guó)財(cái)政能力都可以被用于作為發(fā)行國(guó)際貨幣的抵押物的情形更加適應(yīng)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的需要。此外，本文還對(duì)改革國(guó)際貨幣體系，改善全球金融治理，協(xié)調(diào)全球宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展和人民幣國(guó)際化等議題提出若干政策建議。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe have darkened the prospects for world economic growth, and the crisis began with the loose monetary and fiscal policies of the major international money issuers since the beginning of this century, after the economic crisis. Instead of solving the underlying incentive dilemma, massive economic stimulus and financial rescue packages have added to the long-term burden of public debt. The inherent shortcomings of the international monetary system and the accompanying global imbalances are the root causes of the chronic problems of the world economic system and the economic crisis. The existence of the broad sense of "Triffin problem" makes the current international monetary system difficult to sustain. This paper takes the sustainability of the international monetary system as the research object. This paper focuses on the internal instability of a single credit currency as an international currency, the relationship between the governance structure of the international monetary system and the evolution of global imbalances, and the influencing factors of the international monetary status. First of all, this paper based on the current international monetary system crisis characteristics of the summary of facts and literature research. A theoretical model with general explanatory power is established based on the functions of international currency as a trading medium and a store of value. Through the intertemporal equilibrium analysis and the simulation of different policy scenarios of the international currency issuing countries. The two-country model reveals that the collapse of the international trading system stemmed from the draining of the trade surpluses of the latecomers. The collapse of the international financial system is due to the excessive accumulation of external liabilities, the international monetary issuers have to face foreign concerns about their ability to repay, resulting in a loss of confidence in the international currency. Based on two basic theoretical models, this paper adds the internationalization of the currency of the developed countries and the existence of a third country, which enriches the supply of international liquidity. And the impact of the change of the international monetary governance structure and the shrinking of the economies of the developed countries on the sustainability of the international monetary system and global imbalances. Finally, this paper from the history of the gold standard. Based on the experience of the Bretton Woods system and the post-Bretton Woods system, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the international monetary status to test the theory of this paper. The basic conclusion of this paper is that the essence of the "Triffin problem" in the broad sense is that when the national currency acts as the international currency, it is difficult for the issuing countries to avoid the conflict between domestic and international objectives. This makes the supply of international liquidity difficult) in addition to a country's economic strength. Financial development is also an important determinant of the international monetary status. The comparative advantage of providing financial products in the financial market enables the international money issuing countries to finance through the returned currency, that is, in the case of trade deficits. The competitive-cooperative relationship of multiple currencies through the issuance of bonds to recover the international currency will help to improve the sustainability of the international monetary system. Because such a governance structure would relieve the fiscal pressure on individual international currency issuers to provide reserve assets. That is to say, the financial capacity of many countries can be used as collateral for the issue of international currency to meet the needs of the sustained growth of the world economy. In addition, this paper also aims to reform the international monetary system and improve global financial governance. Coordination of global macroeconomic policies, development of China's financial markets and internationalization of the renminbi.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F821

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

1 余永定;;從當(dāng)前的人民幣匯率波動(dòng)看人民幣國(guó)際化[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論;2012年01期

2 王宇哲;張明;;美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期國(guó)債市場(chǎng)上主要外國(guó)投資者的投資行為比較[J];國(guó)際金融研究;2013年11期

3 周小川;;關(guān)于儲(chǔ)蓄率問(wèn)題的若干觀察與分析[J];中國(guó)金融;2009年04期

4 周小川;;關(guān)于改革國(guó)際貨幣體系的思考[J];中國(guó)金融;2009年07期

本文編號(hào)：1427471