本文關鍵詞：上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)的構(gòu)建研究　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù) AHP層次分析法 因子分析法

【摘要】：股利分配政策作為上市公司財務管理的核心內(nèi)容,不僅關系著投資者的利益,也影響著公司未來發(fā)展,特別是現(xiàn)金股利分配政策。對投資者來說,購買股票獲得收益主要來源股息收入和股票差價收入,當上市公司發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利時,不僅改善了投資者的收益結(jié)構(gòu),也減少了資本市場上的投機行為,所以現(xiàn)金分紅可以幫助投資者養(yǎng)成良好的投資行為。對管理層來說,公司進行現(xiàn)金分紅不僅可以向外界傳遞積極正面的信號以吸引更多的投資者,還能降低管理層與投資者之間的代理成本,提高資本利用效率。對監(jiān)管部門來說,上市公司進行現(xiàn)金分紅,有助于投資者養(yǎng)成正確的投資理念,平衡好投資者與管理層之間的關系,維護資本市場的正常運轉(zhuǎn)。 雖然現(xiàn)金分紅對投資者、管理層以及監(jiān)管部門影響重大,但上市公司卻普遍存在“重融資、輕回報”的問題。為了促使公司發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利,證監(jiān)會頒布了一系列規(guī)定,特別是將再融資與公司分紅情況掛鉤后,公司分紅情況逐步得到改善,甚至引發(fā)了現(xiàn)金分紅潮。但值得深思的是,再融資與分紅情況掛鉤這一政策在一定程度上忽視了公司分紅能力的差異性,是不是真正能有效地約束具備高分紅能力的上市公司,會不會給真正有融資需求的上市公司再添門檻?目前已改善的現(xiàn)金分紅情況是因為政策促使的還是因為公司的現(xiàn)金分紅能力確實提高了?因此,我們有必要對公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力進行客觀準確評價,考察公司分紅情況是否與其分紅能力一致。 本文以投資者風險厭惡理論、優(yōu)序融資理論、股利生命周期理論和信號傳遞理論為基礎,同時梳理了現(xiàn)金股利影響因素的相關文獻,并從現(xiàn)金股利影響因素中篩選影響現(xiàn)金分紅能力因素,包括：行業(yè)特征、公司規(guī)模、未來投資情況、盈利情況、成長能力、營運能力、償債能力和可供分配資產(chǎn)等一級指標。二級指標按照綜合性、重要性和代表性等原則進行選取。一級指標運用AHP層次分析法確定權(quán)重,二級指標運用因子分析法確定權(quán)重,最終構(gòu)建了上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)計算體系。 根據(jù)研究內(nèi)容,論文分為6章： 第1章：緒論。緒論主要包括選題背景、研究意義、研究思路和方法、論文內(nèi)容和框架等。 第2章：文獻綜述。這部分回顧并梳理了現(xiàn)金股利政策相關文獻,歸納總結(jié)后,發(fā)現(xiàn)以往學者更多從現(xiàn)金股利影響因素、公司發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利的動機以及現(xiàn)金股利的市場反映這三個角度進行研究,而從現(xiàn)金分紅能力角度進行研究的文獻卻比較少。 第3章：理論分析。關于現(xiàn)金股利的理論研究很豐富,但考慮到與文章的相關性,文中只選擇能夠支撐研究的理論,主要包括投資者風險厭惡理論、優(yōu)序融資理論、股利生命周期理論和信號傳遞理論。 第4章：上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)構(gòu)建。這是文章的核心,更是文章的目的。首先,通過列表的方式概述現(xiàn)金分紅的影響因素。然后,分析現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)的內(nèi)涵,在把握其內(nèi)涵的基礎上確定現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)指標,包括一級指標和二級指標,構(gòu)建現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)評價體系；接下來,采用主觀和客觀賦權(quán)相結(jié)合的方法確定指標權(quán)重,一級指標采用AHP層次分析法確定權(quán)重,而二級指標采用因子分析賦權(quán)的方法；最后,得到上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)的計算體系。 第5章：上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)運用。 首先根據(jù)現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)計算體系計算2012年A股上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)值。在計算現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)值時,采用標準化法對二級指標進行無量綱化處理,以消除不同行業(yè)取值范圍不同、計量單位不同的影響。標準化法中所采用的平均值和標準差均由行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)計算得出。計算過程中考慮了指標類型的差異。當指標取值為0、1時,則該指標的單項指數(shù)值為0或100；當指標并非取值0或1時,則將該指標無量綱化后的數(shù)值線性轉(zhuǎn)化成值域為[0,100]的數(shù)值作為該指標的單項指數(shù)值。具體過程如下：若無量綱化后所有樣本的指標值域為(a,b),當指標無量綱化后的數(shù)值為x時,如果該指標是正指標,則該指標的單項指數(shù)值為100*(x-a))/(b-a)；如果該指標為逆指標,則該指標的單項指數(shù)為100*(b-x)/(b-a)。由于無量綱化后的數(shù)值存在極端值,若a、b直接取無量綱化后的最大值、最小值,無疑會夸大值域?qū)挾?造成單項指數(shù)值分布極度不合理�？紤]到數(shù)據(jù)具備連續(xù)性,也滿足正態(tài)分布,中位數(shù)相比平均數(shù)可以很好地反映數(shù)據(jù)分布情況,所以本文按5%水平對無量綱化后的數(shù)據(jù)進行縮尾處理,同時兼顧中位數(shù)情況確定a和b的取值,以保證單項指數(shù)值的合理性。當然,所有單項指數(shù)取值均在[0,100]內(nèi),若單項指數(shù)計算值超過100,則該單項指數(shù)取值為100；若單項指數(shù)計算值小于0,則該單項指數(shù)取值為0。最后,上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)為∑WiAi,其中Wi是指標i的絕對權(quán)重,Ai是指標i的單項指數(shù)值。 然后根據(jù)公司累計未分配利潤是否為正將上市公司劃分為“具備股利分配資格公司”與“不具備股利分配資格公司”,分析這兩類公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)是否存在顯著差異；ST和非ST公司的現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)是否存在顯著差異；分紅公司與未分紅公司的現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)是否存在顯著差異,進而判斷現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)的有效性。最后,是現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)的運用分析,主要用來探索“不同分紅能力公司之間是否存在顯著的實際分紅差異”“高分紅能力公司是不是存在不派現(xiàn)或低派現(xiàn)的普遍現(xiàn)象”“低分紅能力公司是不是普遍存在高派現(xiàn)情況”等問題的答案,從而進一步認識我國的資本市場。 第6章：結(jié)論與展望。 通過AHP層次分析法和因子分析法構(gòu)建了上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù),并對該指數(shù)進行運用分析,得到以下幾點結(jié)論： (1)影響現(xiàn)金分紅能力的主要因素是盈利情況(37.26%)、償債能力(19.55%)、可供分配資產(chǎn)(18.19%)和未來投資情況(9.89%)。 (2)通過對上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)描述性統(tǒng)計分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)分紅公司的現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)顯著高于未分紅公司,而且高派現(xiàn)公司的現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)顯著高于低派現(xiàn)公司,認為公司現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)在一定程度可以預測公司實際的分紅強度。 (3)我國A股市場存在“高分紅能力公司低派現(xiàn)或不派現(xiàn)”的現(xiàn)象。對高分紅能力公司的現(xiàn)金分紅進行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)只有67.05%的公司進行了高派現(xiàn),32.95%的公司進行了低派現(xiàn)或未派現(xiàn)。 (4)我國A股市場存在“低分紅能力公司高派現(xiàn)”的現(xiàn)象。對低分紅能力公司的現(xiàn)金分紅進行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)：29.79%的公司未進行現(xiàn)金分紅,41.90%的公司進行了低派現(xiàn),28.31%的公司卻實施了高派現(xiàn)。 根據(jù)研究結(jié)論,筆者也提出了兩點切實可行的建議： (1)隨著定向增發(fā)成為主流的融資方式,建議證監(jiān)會在將再融資與現(xiàn)金分紅掛鉤時,因募投項目而采用定向增發(fā)進行再融資的上市公司,也應符合“最近三年以現(xiàn)金方式累計分配的利潤不少于最近三年實現(xiàn)的年均可分配利潤的百分之三十”的規(guī)定； (2)證監(jiān)會可以研究設計一套現(xiàn)金分紅能力評價體系,并對所有上市公司的現(xiàn)金分紅能力進行評估,并與公司的實際分紅情況進行比較,從而制定更為合理有效的分紅政策。 文章的局限性主要體現(xiàn)在評價體系的建立上。本文指數(shù)評價體系選擇的行業(yè)特征、公司規(guī)模、未來投資情況、盈利情況、成長能力、營運能力、償債能力和可供分配資產(chǎn)等8方面雖說已經(jīng)很好地衡量了公司分紅能力,但是還有沒有其他的重要影響因素未納入評價體系。未來投資情況只進行了定性考慮,卻未進行定量考慮。同時,二級指標具不具備代表性,夠不夠全面。在運用AHP層次分析法確定評價體系中一級指標的權(quán)重,具有一定的主觀性。而且現(xiàn)金分紅能力指數(shù)不能評價金融行業(yè)、數(shù)據(jù)缺失以及上市未滿3年公司。未來學者可以在現(xiàn)金分紅能力影響因素方面進行更為深入的研究,進一步完善現(xiàn)金分紅能力評價體系,挑選更具代表性的指標。
[Abstract]:The dividend policy as the core content of financial management of listed companies, not only related to the interests of investors, but also affects the future development of the company, especially the cash dividend policy. For investors to buy shares to obtain income mainly dividend income and stock price income, when the cash dividend is not only to improve the income structure of investors the reduction in capital market speculation, so the cash dividend can help investors make investment behavior. Good management, the company cash dividend can not only deliver a positive signal to the outside world in order to attract more investors, but also can reduce the agency cost between management and investors, improve the efficiency of capital use. The supervision department, the listed company cash dividends, help investors to develop the correct investment concept, investment balance The relationship between the managers and the management is to maintain the normal operation of the capital market.
Although cash dividends to investors, affect the management and supervision department of major listed companies, but they generally re financing, light return problem. In order to promote the company's dividend, the Commission issued a series of regulations, in particular will be linked to dividend refinancing and the company, the company dividends situation gradually improved and even lead to a cash in red tide. But it is worth pondering, refinancing linked with the bonus of this policy to a certain extent, ignore the difference of the dividend capacity, is not really can effectively restrain high dividend capacity of listed companies, will not give the real financing needs of listed companies add threshold? Cash dividends has been improved because of the cash dividend policy to or because the company's ability to really improve? Therefore, it is necessary for US companies cash dividend ability An objective and accurate evaluation was conducted to examine whether the company's bonus is in accordance with its bonus.
In this paper, risk aversion theory, pecking order theory, dividend life cycle theory and signal transmission theory, and reviews the factors affecting the cash dividend and cash dividend, including the influence from the factors influence the cash dividend capacity screening factors: the characteristics of the industry, company size, future investment, profitability, growth ability, operation ability, solvency and assets available for distribution level indicators. The two indicators were selected according to the comprehensive, importance and principles of representation. An index using AHP AHP to determine the weight of the two indicators using factor analysis method to determine the weights, finally constructs the index calculation ability of the listed company cash dividend system.
According to the research content, the thesis is divided into 6 chapters.
The first chapter: introduction. The introduction mainly includes the background of topic selection, research significance, research ideas and methods, content and framework of the paper.
The second chapter: literature review. This part reviews and combs the related literature on cash dividend policy, summarized, previous researchers from more cash dividend factors, these three perspectives reflect the company's cash dividend and cash dividend motivation of the market, and from the angle of cash dividend capacity fewer studies.
The third chapter: theoretical analysis. There are abundant theories about cash dividends. But considering the relevance of articles, we only choose theories that can support research, including investor risk aversion theory, pecking order financing theory, dividend lifecycle theory and signal transmission theory.
The fourth chapter: cash dividends of listed companies. This ability index construction is the core of the article, it is the purpose of the paper. First of all, the factors affecting the list of the overview of the cash dividend. Then, analysis on the connotation of cash dividend capacity index, based on grasping the connotation of the determination of cash dividend ability index, including a indicators and two indicators, construction of evaluation system of cash dividend capacity index; then, using the method of combining the subjective and objective weighting AHP to determine the weight of index weight using AHP indicators and two indicators using factor analysis weighting method; finally, calculating system of cash dividends of listed companies ability index.
The fifth chapter: the use of cash dividend index of listed companies.
According to the cash dividend capacity index calculation system for the calculation of 2012 A shares of listed companies cash dividend. In numerical computing capacity refers to the cash dividend index value, using the standard method of the two indicators of dimensionless, to eliminate the influence of different range of different industries, different units of measurement. The average value of the standardization law and the standard deviation were calculated by industry data. In the process of calculation considering the difference between the index type. When the index value is 0,1, the single index index value is 0 or 100; when the index is not a value of 0 or 1, the index of non numerical linear dimension after transformed into range is the [0100] value as the index of single index value. The specific process is as follows: if the dimensionless index range for all samples (a, b), when the value of dimensionless index after X, if the index is a The subject, the single index index value of 100* (x-a)) / (B-A); if the index is the inverse index, the index of the single index 100* (b-X) / (B-A). Because the numerical dimensionless existence of extreme value, if a, B direct maximum, no the dimensionless minimum value, will undoubtedly cause exaggerated range width, single index value distribution is extremely unreasonable. Considering the data is continuous, also meet the normal distribution, the median compared to the average number can well reflect the data distribution, so this paper according to the 5% level of the non dimensional data into the back end at the same time, the median value of a and B, in order to ensure the rationality of single index value. Of course, all single index values were in the range of [0100], if the value of more than 100 single index calculation, the single index value is 100; if the single index value is less than 0, the single index value is 0. Finally, the listed company's cash dividend index is WiAi, of which Wi is the absolute weight of the index I, and Ai is the single index value of the index I.
Then according to the accumulated undistributed profit is whether the listed companies are divided into "have the qualification of dividend distribution company" and "do not have the qualification of dividend distribution company, analysis of the cash dividend capacity of these two companies index whether there are significant differences; ST and non ST companies cash dividend capacity index whether there are significant differences; cash dividend capacity the company and not dividends dividends index, whether there are significant differences, and to determine the effectiveness of the cash dividend capacity index. Finally, analysis ability to use cash dividend index, mainly used to explore the different dividend capacity between companies if there is a significant difference between the actual dividend" "high dividend capacity of the company is not the existence of cash dividends or not low this common phenomenon" and "low dividend capacity of the company is not common dividends" answers, so as to further recognize To know the capital market in our country.
The sixth chapter: the conclusion and the prospect.
Through the AHP analytic hierarchy process and the factor analysis method, the listed company's cash dividend index is constructed, and the application of the index is analyzed, and the following conclusions are obtained.
(1) the main factors affecting the cash bonus are the earnings (37.26%), the solvency (19.55%), the allocation of assets (18.19%) and the future investment (9.89%).
(2) through the analysis of the cash dividend of listed companies ability index descriptive statistics, found that cash dividend capacity index dividend companies is significantly higher than that in non dividend, and cash dividend capacity index was significantly higher than the low cash dividend company to send the company, that the company's cash dividend dividend strength capacity index can Forecast Ltd in a certain degree of.
(3) A stock market in China has "the high dividend capacity low cash dividend or cash dividend" phenomenon. The ability of high dividend companies cash dividend analysis, found that only 67.05% of companies of high cash dividends, the 32.95% companies were low cash dividend or cash dividend.
(4) low dividend capacity companies of high cash dividends "phenomenon exists in China A stock market. The low dividend capacity company cash dividend is analyzed, found that 29.79% of companies without a cash bonus, 41.90% companies of low cash dividend, 28.31% companies have implemented a cash dividend.
According to the conclusions of the study, I also put forward two practical suggestions:
(1) with the private placement has become the mainstream way of financing, we recommend that the Commission will in refinancing and cash dividend linked, due to equity investment projects and the use of private placement refinancing of listed companies, but also should be consistent with the most recent three years the cumulative distribution of cash profits of not less than three years to achieve average annual distributable recently profit thirty percent "provisions;
(2) the CSRC can study and design a set of cash bonus capability evaluation system, and evaluate the cash dividends ability of all listed companies, and compare with the actual dividend situation of the company, so as to develop a more reasonable and effective dividend policy.
The limitation of the paper is mainly reflected in the establishment of the evaluation system. The evaluation system of selection of industry characteristics, the index of the size of the company, the future investment, profitability, growth ability, operation ability, solvency and asset allocation for the 8 aspects of it have a good measure of the dividend capacity, but there are no factors other significant impacts are not included in the evaluation system. The future investment only qualitative considerations, but not quantitative consideration. At the same time, the two level index does not have enough representative, not comprehensive. In the use of AHP AHP to determine the weights of indicators in the evaluation system and has certain subjectivity and cash. The dividend index can not evaluate the financial industry, data missing and listed under the age of 3 years. Scholars can in future cash dividend capacity factors more in-depth research, further. Good cash bonus evaluation system and select more representative indicators.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F275

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