本文關鍵詞：匯率對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整的影響研究　出處：《安徽財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 人民幣匯率 人民幣實際有效匯率 產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整 對外貿(mào)易結構 外商直接投資 外商其他投資

【摘要】：產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整對我國經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展具有重大的戰(zhàn)略意義。對外貿(mào)易的擴大和外商投資的增加在我國三十多年的對外開放過程中為產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整、升級提供了不竭的動力。作為重要的價格變量,人民幣匯率的變動會通過影響進出口產(chǎn)品價格、外商投資收益等作用于我國外部經(jīng)濟和內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟。本文主要討論人民幣匯率變動與我國經(jīng)濟增長路徑的關系,并以此為基礎,分析人民幣匯率升值對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整的外在驅(qū)動和內(nèi)在驅(qū)動,并從經(jīng)常項目和資本項目兩個方面分別闡述人民幣匯率是如何促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整的。其主要結構如下： 第一章緒論部分重點分析本文的選題理論意義和實際意義,以突出研究人民幣實際有效匯率對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整影響的必要性和重要性。 第二章詳細闡述了人民幣實際有效匯率及產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整的相關概念和理論,主要包括人民幣實際有效匯率的定義、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的界定、匯率傳遞理論、巴拉薩一薩繆爾森效應、購買力平價理論、匯率、國際資本流動與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整理論等,以便為下文的分析做基礎性鋪墊。 第三章論述人民幣匯率與我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整的關系。著重研究以下幾個方面的內(nèi)容：一、以我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的客觀現(xiàn)實為依據(jù),詳細闡述人民幣匯率對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整的影響,以及我國出口導向型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式的形成過程和對內(nèi)、對外兩部門生產(chǎn)率差異的狀況；二、根據(jù)巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應理論,研究我國經(jīng)濟增長模式和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構發(fā)展特征與人民幣匯率變動的內(nèi)在關系；三、從國際收支的經(jīng)常項目(主要為對外貿(mào)易一般項目)和資本項目(主要包括外商直接投資和其他投資)兩個方面分析人民幣匯率波動對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整的作用路徑。 第四章首先梳理了人民幣匯率的歷史演變,接著結合人民幣匯率的變動趨勢,分析人民幣實際有效匯率與我國外貿(mào)結構變動的相關性。最后在實證部分,本文運用回歸分析、因果分析、VAR模型、脈沖響應等計量方法分析人民幣實際有效匯率變動對勞動密集型產(chǎn)品、資源密集型產(chǎn)品和資金密集型產(chǎn)品的出口比重和進口比重的影響,探討當前人民幣實際有效匯率升值對我國對外貿(mào)易結構調(diào)整的影響。 第五章從現(xiàn)實和實證兩方面研究外商投資的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整效應,即國際資本流動對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整的影響。首先從現(xiàn)實角度回顧匯率與外商投資近三十年來的變化,然后運用回歸分析、因果檢驗、協(xié)整、VAR和脈沖響應等從實證的角度對1985年至2012年期間人民幣實際有效匯率變動與外商直接投資和外商其他投資的關系進行了計量分析。 第六章得出本文的結論：無論是在對外貿(mào)易還是在外商投資方面,人民幣實際有效匯率的升值對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的調(diào)整都具有積極的帶動作用。 人民幣匯率升值對我國經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展具有重大的戰(zhàn)略影響,單就產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值來說,人民幣匯率升值有利于提高第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值,相應的減少第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值,優(yōu)化三大產(chǎn)業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟中的比重；從產(chǎn)品結構來說,能夠有效帶動資本和資源密集型產(chǎn)品的進口和出口,抑制我國勞動密集型產(chǎn)品的出口,從而有助于改變我國一直以來以勞動密集型和資源密集型產(chǎn)品為出口主導的狀況；從投資方面看,將帶動外商直接和外商其他投資的增加,維護我國資本市場穩(wěn)定。經(jīng)過這些利弊的權衡,我國政府和企業(yè)將加快轉變產(chǎn)品出口模式和經(jīng)濟增長方式,最終實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的調(diào)整將會水到渠成。
[Abstract]:It is of great strategic significance to the development of the industrial structure adjustment of China's economic society. The increase of foreign trade and foreign investment increased in the process of opening up in China for more than thirty years for the adjustment of industrial structure, upgrade to provide an inexhaustible power. As an important price variable, the RMB exchange rate changes will be affected by the import and export of products the price of foreign investment in our external economy and internal economy. This paper mainly discusses the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's economic growth path, and on this basis, analysis of the RMB exchange rate appreciation on the adjustment of Chinese industrial structure of the external and internal driving, and from the two aspects of the current and capital projects respectively. This is the exchange rate of RMB to promote the adjustment of industrial structure. The main structure is as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction part, which focuses on the theoretical and practical significance of this topic, so as to highlight the necessity and importance of studying the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on industrial restructuring.
The second chapter elaborated the related concepts of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the adjustment of industrial structure and theory, including the definition of real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate, the definition of industrial structure, transfer theory, Pakistan Lhasa a Samuelson effect, the theory of purchasing power parity, exchange rate, international capital flow and the theory of industrial structure adjustment, in order to make a foundation pave the way for the following analysis.
The third chapter discusses the relationship between RMB exchange rate and the adjustment of industrial structure in China. The paper researches the following contents: first, the objective reality of China's economic development as the basis, elaborated the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's industrial structure adjustment, as well as China's export-oriented economic development model of the forming process and the. The two sector productivity difference situation; two, according to Pakistani Lhasa - Samuelson effect theory, the internal relationship between China's economic growth mode and industrial structure development characteristics and the change of RMB exchange rate; three, from the international balance of payments current account (mainly foreign trade general project) and capital projects (including foreign direct investment and other investment) two aspects of the path of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's industrial structure adjustment.
The fourth chapter first reviews the evolution of the RMB exchange rate history, then combined with the trend of RMB exchange rate, the correlation analysis of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the change of foreign trade structure of our country. Finally, in the empirical part, this paper uses regression analysis, causal analysis, VAR model, impulse response measurement analysis of RMB real effective exchange rate changes on labor intensive effect of resource intensive products, the proportion of export products and capital intensive products and the proportion of imports, to explore the current real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade structure adjustment effect.
Effect of industrial structure adjustment of the fifth chapter from the two aspects of reality and empirical research of foreign investment, the impact of international capital flows on the adjustment of industrial structure in China. First, from the realistic angle, review of exchange rate and foreign investment in the past thirty years, and then use regression analysis, causality test, cointegration, VAR and impulse response of during the period from 1985 to 2012, RMB real effective exchange rate and foreign direct investment and other foreign investment from the perspective of empirical relationships were analyzed.
The sixth chapter draws the conclusion of this paper: whether in foreign trade or in foreign investment, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a positive effect on the adjustment of industrial structure.
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a significant strategic impact on China's economic and social development, single industrial added value, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to improve the added value of the second, third industry, the corresponding reduction of the first industrial added value, optimization of the three industry in the national economy proportion; from the product structure, can effectively promote the capital and resources intensive products import and export, suppression of China's exports of labor-intensive products, which contributes to the change in China has been leading export situation for the labor-intensive and resource intensive products; from the investment perspective, will lead to the increase of foreign direct and other foreign investment, China's capital market stability maintenance after weighing the pros and cons. Of these, our government and enterprises will accelerate the transformation of export mode and the mode of economic growth, and ultimately realize the adjustment of the industrial structure will come into drains.

【學位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124;F832.6

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 尹希果,雷虹,譚志雄;我國對外貿(mào)易的地區(qū)差異及區(qū)域貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略[J];北京工商大學學報(社會科學版);2004年02期

2 孫詠梅,祝金甫;匯率低估與中國經(jīng)濟結構調(diào)整[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2005年04期

3 巴曙松;王群;;人民幣實際有效匯率對我國經(jīng)濟影響的實證研究[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2009年06期

4 丁劍平,鄂永健;實際匯率、工資和就業(yè)——對中國貿(mào)易部門和非貿(mào)易部門的實證研究[J];財經(jīng)研究;2005年11期

5 劉勇;中國新三大地帶宏觀區(qū)域格局的劃分[J];地理學報;2005年03期

6 龍強;人民幣適度升值與貿(mào)易問題研究[J];廣西財政高等�？茖W校學報;2005年03期

7 程是東 ,祝金甫;匯率低估與中國經(jīng)濟結構問題[J];國際經(jīng)濟合作;2005年04期

8 劉宇;姜波克;;匯率變動與經(jīng)濟增長方式的轉換——基于結構優(yōu)化的視角[J];國際金融研究;2008年10期

9 李天棟;;人民幣匯率政策的目標與條件——基于經(jīng)濟增長視角的研究[J];國際貿(mào)易;2006年06期

10 施建淮;;全球經(jīng)濟失衡的調(diào)整及其對中國經(jīng)濟的影響[J];國際經(jīng)濟評論;2006年02期

，

本文編號：1373226