本文關(guān)鍵詞：中小企業(yè)存貨質(zhì)押融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及控制策略研究　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 中小企業(yè) 存貨質(zhì)押 價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 企業(yè)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

【摘要】：歷年來中小企業(yè)具有自有資本少、固定資產(chǎn)少、企業(yè)信用度不高等特點(diǎn),這些客觀因素導(dǎo)致其很難直接通過銀行融資,又在制約其發(fā)展因素中最重要的就是融資問題,存貨質(zhì)押融資業(yè)務(wù)已是解決中小企業(yè)融資難的重要間接融資方式。存貨質(zhì)押融資是近幾年在金融市場(chǎng)上一種十分活躍的融資方式。中小企業(yè)將其原材料、半成品、成品等當(dāng)成質(zhì)押物向商業(yè)銀行借款,通過物流企業(yè)這樣一個(gè)第三方企業(yè)對(duì)貨物進(jìn)行監(jiān)管,對(duì)質(zhì)押物進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)移占有,而中小企業(yè)也達(dá)到了融資的目的。在幫助中小企業(yè)解決固有的融資難題的同時(shí),也給開展動(dòng)產(chǎn)質(zhì)押業(yè)務(wù)的金融機(jī)構(gòu)帶來了豐厚的報(bào)酬。然而存貨質(zhì)押融資作為一種新興的融資模式,在不斷發(fā)展的過程中也出現(xiàn)了相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),如質(zhì)押物價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、業(yè)務(wù)中的法律法規(guī)問題、質(zhì)押率設(shè)置風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、企業(yè)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等,各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制是存貨質(zhì)押融資發(fā)展的重要前提。在眾多的存貨質(zhì)押融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中,質(zhì)押物的價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及中小企業(yè)的違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中的重點(diǎn),也是本文重點(diǎn)研究對(duì)象。本文通過對(duì)存貨質(zhì)押融資業(yè)務(wù)中的三大主體：金融機(jī)構(gòu)、物流企業(yè)及中小企業(yè)在業(yè)務(wù)中的職能作用來分析業(yè)務(wù)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)點(diǎn),提出把控質(zhì)押物價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和企業(yè)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要性。首先,以分形理論為基礎(chǔ),提出基于分形理論的質(zhì)押物價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型,有效預(yù)測(cè)質(zhì)押物價(jià)格,以期控制存貨質(zhì)押融資價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。主要選取四川地區(qū)日2011年1月到2012年12月的螺紋鋼HRB335φ10的462個(gè)價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用重標(biāo)極差法并借助Matlab7.0軟件進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,預(yù)測(cè)出后一個(gè)月的價(jià)格,并分析對(duì)比預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與實(shí)際價(jià)格,求出質(zhì)押物價(jià)格的Hurst指數(shù),對(duì)質(zhì)押物價(jià)格進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。其次,在驗(yàn)證預(yù)測(cè)價(jià)格模型的有效性后,從心理動(dòng)力學(xué)角度出發(fā),采用簡(jiǎn)化的九型人格心理調(diào)查問卷對(duì)中小企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人進(jìn)行調(diào)查,探討企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的人格對(duì)企業(yè)是否違約起著決定性作用。再結(jié)合預(yù)測(cè)出的期末質(zhì)押物價(jià)格,采用專家打分法,對(duì)企業(yè)違約率進(jìn)行估算,并對(duì)此模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。最后,結(jié)合上述二個(gè)模型提出銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)警戒值的估算及合理把控業(yè)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法與措施。研究結(jié)果表明在存貨質(zhì)押業(yè)務(wù)三主體中,無論是物流企業(yè)的市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、商品監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn),還是商業(yè)銀行所面臨的質(zhì)押物選擇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、質(zhì)押率設(shè)置風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等都跟質(zhì)押物價(jià)格波動(dòng)有關(guān),論述質(zhì)押物價(jià)格波動(dòng)是存貨質(zhì)押融資業(yè)務(wù)的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)點(diǎn)；采用的分形理論質(zhì)押物價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型是有效的,后續(xù)30天的螺紋鋼價(jià)格進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的最大誤差為1.3%,最小誤差0.05%,即此模型能較準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)存貨質(zhì)押業(yè)務(wù)中的質(zhì)押物價(jià)格；中小企業(yè)內(nèi)部領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人有強(qiáng)烈的個(gè)人主義色彩,企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人共分9種人格類型,企業(yè)共分5種狀態(tài),在上述價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型的基礎(chǔ)上可有效且科學(xué)的估算出企業(yè)的違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn),具體見價(jià)格—違約表。基于上述二種模型的有效性后提出相關(guān)政策與建議,有效控制或降低存貨質(zhì)押融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn),顯著提高質(zhì)押融資效率。
[Abstract]:Over the years, the small and medium-sized enterprise has its own capital, fixed assets, enterprise credit degree is not high, these factors make it difficult to directly through bank financing, but also the most important factor in restricting the development of is the problem of financing, inventory financing is to solve the financing difficulties of SMEs important indirect financing inventory. Mortgage financing is in recent years in the financial market is a very active way of financing of small and medium-sized enterprises. The raw materials, semi-finished products, finished products such as collateral loans to commercial banks, through the third party logistics enterprises such an enterprise of goods regulation, to pledge the transfer of possession, but also to small and medium sized enterprises the purpose of financing. To help SMEs solve their financing problems inherent at the same time, but also to carry out the chattel mortgage business of financial institutions has brought huge returns. However, inventory Financing as a new financing mode in the development process there are also some risks, such as pledge price risk, legal issues in business, pledge rate setting risk, corporate default risk, risk control is an important premise of inventory financing development. Many of the pledge in the inventory financing risk in the small and medium-sized enterprises pledge price risk and the default risk is the focus of all the risk, which is the focus of the research object. Based on the three main stock pledge financing business in financial institutions, the functions of logistics enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises in the business of business risk, put forward control of the pledge price risk and corporate default risk importance. Firstly, on the basis of fractal theory, fractal theory model is proposed to predict the pledge price based on the prediction of effective collateral price, In order to control the inventory financing price risk. Mainly from Sichuan area on January 2011 to December 2012 rebar HRB335 Phi 10 462 price data, using the rescaled range analysis and empirical analysis by using the software of Matlab7.0, predicted a month after the price, and analyzed the predicted results and the actual price, calculate the pledge the price of the Hurst index, the collateral price forecast. Secondly, the validity of the forecast price model in the verification, starting from the psychological dynamics angle, using the simplified Enneagram psychological questionnaire of leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises, to explore business leaders on whether enterprises default personality plays a decisive role. Combined with the forecast the final pledge price, using expert scoring method to corporate default rates were estimated, and the empirical analysis this model. Finally, the combination of the above two models proposed Estimation of bank risk warning value and reasonable methods and measures to control the business risk. The results show that in the three main stock pledge business, whether it is the logistics enterprises commodity market risk, regulatory risk, choice of pledge or risk faced by commercial banks, mortgage rate setting risk, management risk, moral hazard and so on are to pledge price fluctuations, this pledge price volatility is the key risk of inventory financing; fractal theory the pledge price prediction model is effective, the maximum error of forecast steel prices following 30 days of 1.3%, the minimum error of 0.05%, that this model can accurately predict the stock pledge pledge the price in the business of small and medium-sized enterprises; internal leaders strongly individualistic, business leaders are divided into 9 types of personality, the enterprise is divided into 5 states, in the above price Based on the prediction model, we can effectively and scientifically estimate the default risk of enterprises, and see the price breach table in detail. Based on the effectiveness of the above two models, we put forward relevant policies and suggestions, effectively control or reduce the risk of inventory financing, and significantly improve the efficiency of pledge financing.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F276.3;F832.4

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本文編號(hào)：1370461