金磚國家作為發(fā)展最強(qiáng)勁的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體在全球貿(mào)易合作中起著重要的作用,而原油是實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不可或缺的傳統(tǒng)能源。近年來,金磚國家政府為了適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的快速轉(zhuǎn)型以及深化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)改革的目標(biāo)推出許多石油進(jìn)出口利好政策。其各國的能源結(jié)構(gòu)也因此發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變。而當(dāng)前,我們也處于經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性發(fā)生巨大變化的大環(huán)境下,特別是現(xiàn)在經(jīng)歷的由于COVID-19大流行帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)萎靡時期,這使得原油價格變化與各國經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性的研究越來越受到學(xué)者的重視。本文首先梳理相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)并闡述原油價格形成機(jī)制,通過分析相關(guān)理論建立起二者之間的理論影響,并參照之前的研究建立理論模型。根據(jù)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的發(fā)展,我們分別討論5個金磚國家的從1997年1月到2020年3月的月度經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性。本文首先運(yùn)用全樣本格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗證明了兩者間的時變相關(guān)性,再通過BDS檢驗驗證了樣本數(shù)據(jù)的非線性性,以上實(shí)證結(jié)果得出樣本數(shù)據(jù)具有結(jié)構(gòu)性斷裂,傳統(tǒng)的實(shí)證分析可能會造成結(jié)論的不準(zhǔn)確。故本文結(jié)合分位數(shù)格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗和子樣本拔靴因果關(guān)系檢驗對金磚國家經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性和原油價格沖擊進(jìn)行研究。因果關(guān)系的實(shí)證結(jié)果呈現(xiàn)出不對稱的特征,當(dāng)石油市場經(jīng)歷供給沖擊時,對...

【文章頁數(shù)】：63 頁

【學(xué)位級別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
Abstract
Chapter1 Introduction
    1.1 Research background
    1.2 Significance of this study
        1.2.1 Theoretical significance
        1.2.2 Practical significance
        1.2.3 Feasibility of method
    1.3 Research contents and Research methods
        1.3.1 Research contents
        1.3.2 Paper structure
        1.3.3 Research methods
    1.4 Contributions and deficiencies
        1.4.1 Contributions
        1.4.2 Deficiency
Chapter2 Literature review
    2.1 Unidirectional impact from crude oil price to economic policy uncertainty
    2.2 Unidirectional impact from economic policy uncertainty to crude oil price
    2.3 Bidirectional relationship between crude oil price and economic policy uncertainty
    2.4 Literature Evaluation
Chapter3 The relationship between crude oil price and economic stability
    3.1 The mechanism of international oil price formation
    3.2 Income transfer effect
    3.3 Real balance effect
    3.4 Supply shock effect
    3.5 Inflation effect
Chapter4 Methodology and data description
    4.1 Quantile Granger causality test
    4.2 Parameter Stability Test
    4.3 Sub-sample Rolling-window Causality Test
    4.4 Data description
Chapter5 Empirical results
    5.1 Checking for structural changes in data
    5.2 Quantile Granger causality test for BRICS
    5.3 Time-varying relationships in Brazil
    5.4 Time-varying relationships in Russia
    5.5 Time-varying relationships in India
    5.6 Time-varying relationships in China
    5.7 Time-varying relationships in South Africa
    5.8 Robustness test
Chapter6 Conclusion
Reference
Research Results During Studying for the Degree
Acknowledgement



本文編號：3954388