發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-02 20:28

【摘要】：進(jìn)入二十一世紀(jì)以來，我國(guó)居民的人均可支配收入大幅增長(zhǎng)，多樣化的需求也在逐步顯現(xiàn)，汽車也走進(jìn)千家萬戶。人們對(duì)家用轎車的需求日益膨脹，，因此有關(guān)我國(guó)家用轎車市場(chǎng)需求的研究預(yù)測(cè)便顯得至關(guān)重要。為了滿足消費(fèi)者多樣化的需求，汽車行業(yè)亦不斷地制定更貼合實(shí)際的產(chǎn)銷計(jì)劃，然而國(guó)際市場(chǎng)不斷推陳出新出諸多性能優(yōu)越的車型，擠占了部分國(guó)內(nèi)的家用轎車市場(chǎng)。因此對(duì)家用轎車市場(chǎng)的研究預(yù)測(cè)也便顯得十分錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜。 本文對(duì)比了國(guó)內(nèi)外家用轎車市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展情況，重點(diǎn)以韓國(guó)現(xiàn)代汽車公司為例，研究了我國(guó)轎車市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)及存在的問題。并在前人的基礎(chǔ)上，通過橫向和縱向的研究預(yù)測(cè)了我國(guó)家用轎車市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。在橫向研究方面，本文通過對(duì)31個(gè)省份及直轄市的城鎮(zhèn)百戶家庭汽車保有量及其影響因素的橫截面數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行彈性分析，確定了影響我國(guó)家用轎車市場(chǎng)需求的主要影響因素及該影響因素的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。在縱向研究方面，本文構(gòu)建了多元的Logistic模型，通過2003－2013年31個(gè)省份的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析，分別預(yù)測(cè)了未來5年我國(guó)各省份家用轎車市場(chǎng)需求的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。得出了我國(guó)家用轎車需求依舊十分旺盛，正處于快速增長(zhǎng)期的結(jié)論。最后，從重點(diǎn)扶持公共交通、優(yōu)先發(fā)展軌道交通、積極倡導(dǎo)綠色出行三個(gè)角度提出政策建議，以確保我國(guó)家用轎車產(chǎn)業(yè)的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展和道路資源的合理利用。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 century, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents has increased dramatically, the diversified demand is also gradually emerging, and the automobile has also entered thousands of households. The demand for domestic cars is expanding day by day, so it is very important to study and forecast the market demand of domestic cars in China. In order to meet the diversified needs of consumers, the automobile industry has constantly made more realistic production and marketing plans. However, the international market has constantly introduced a lot of superior models, which has occupied part of the domestic car market. Therefore, the research and prediction of the domestic car market is very complicated. This paper compares the development of domestic car market at home and abroad. Taking Hyundai Automobile Company of Korea as an example, the development trend and existing problems of domestic car market are studied. On the basis of previous studies, the development trend of domestic car market in China is predicted through horizontal and vertical research. In the aspect of horizontal research, this paper makes elastic analysis on the cross-sectional data of the car ownership and its influencing factors of 100 families in 31 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The main influencing factors and the changing trend of the domestic car market demand are determined. In the aspect of longitudinal research, this paper constructs a multivariate Logistic model, and through the empirical analysis of time series data of 31 provinces from 2003 to 2013, forecasts the changing trend of domestic car market demand in each province of China in the next five years. We draw the conclusion that the demand for domestic cars is still very strong and is in the period of rapid growth. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions from three angles of supporting public transportation, giving priority to rail transit and actively advocating green travel, in order to ensure the steady development of domestic car industry and the rational utilization of road resources.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.471

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