本文選題：碳排放強度 + 能源強度��； 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：為實現(xiàn)2020碳減排承諾,中國在“十二五”規(guī)劃中首次引入碳強度指標,并將國家目標分解到地方。因此,各地區(qū)同時存在節(jié)能目標(能源強度目標)和碳減排目標(碳強度目標)。各地區(qū)碳強度目標與能源強度目標是否保持一致?二者實現(xiàn)的可能性如何?本文以天津市為例,對上述問題進行了探究�；跉v年天津市統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源類別、地區(qū)對比等多個維度整體評價和分析了天津市經(jīng)濟社會、能源消費和碳排放的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及趨勢,揭示了天津市面臨比較嚴峻的節(jié)能和碳減排現(xiàn)實。收集和整理歷年天津市能源強度數(shù)據(jù),畫出能源強度發(fā)展軌跡,基于能源強度發(fā)展軌跡,采用定性和定量的方法深入分析了能源強度變動背后的原因。通過對能源強度演變過程的分析,把握能源強度的發(fā)展趨勢,利用曲線擬合和趨勢外推的方法預(yù)測2015年天津市能源強度,對比“十二五”節(jié)能目標下要達到的目標能源強度,判斷能源強度目標能否實現(xiàn)。同時對天津市“十二五”節(jié)能政策進行量化分析,從政策實現(xiàn)的角度考察能源強度目標能否實現(xiàn)。通過能源強度與碳強度之間關(guān)系的探討,將碳強度分解為能源強度和一次能源碳排放系數(shù),研究天津市“十二五”能源強度目標與碳強度目標的一致性,進而根據(jù)能源強度目標的實現(xiàn)情況,判斷天津市“十二五”碳強度目標的可實現(xiàn)性。結(jié)果表明,能源效率因素對天津市能源強度下降起主導(dǎo)作用,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)因素發(fā)揮的作用比較小。而在能源效率效應(yīng)中,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)能源效率效應(yīng)占主導(dǎo),第三產(chǎn)業(yè)能源效率效應(yīng)次之,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)能源效率效應(yīng)非常小,能源強度的變動主要是受第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)能源強度變動的影響。在保持能源強度發(fā)展趨勢下,天津市實現(xiàn)能源強度目標的可能性超過95%,同時,在節(jié)能政策實現(xiàn)的情況下,天津市完全有能力實現(xiàn)能源強度目標。另外,基于天津市“十二五”規(guī)劃中一次能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化目標,碳強度目標和能源強度目標是一致的,在能源強度目標實現(xiàn)的情況下,碳強度目標也能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:In order to achieve 2020 carbon emission reduction commitments, China introduced carbon intensity indicators for the first time in the "12th Five-Year" plan and decomposed national targets to local areas. Therefore, energy conservation targets (energy intensity targets) and carbon emission targets (carbon intensity targets) exist at the same time. Are carbon intensity targets in various regions consistent with energy intensity targets in each region? The two are realized. How is the possibility? This paper takes Tianjin city as an example to explore the above problems. Based on the statistical data of Tianjin City, this paper evaluates and analyzes the current situation and trend of the economic and social, energy consumption and carbon emission in Tianjin city from the industrial structure, energy category and regional comparison, and reveals the severe festival in Tianjin. Can and carbon emission reduction reality. Collect and collate the energy intensity data of Tianjin City, draw the development trajectory of energy intensity, based on the development trajectory of energy intensity, use qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze the reasons behind the change of energy intensity. Through the analysis of the evolution process of energy intensity, the development trend of energy intensity is grasped, and the use of the curve is grasped. The method of line fitting and trend extrapolation is used to predict the energy intensity of Tianjin in 2015, to compare the target energy intensity of the "12th Five-Year" energy saving target and to determine whether the energy intensity target can be realized. At the same time, the energy intensity policy of "12th Five-Year" in Tianjin is quantified and the energy intensity target can be realized from the point of view of the policy reality. Through the discussion of the relationship between energy intensity and carbon intensity, the carbon intensity is decomposed into energy intensity and energy carbon emission factor, and the consistency between the energy intensity target and the carbon intensity target of "12th Five-Year" in Tianjin is studied. According to the realization of energy intensity target, the realization of the "12th Five-Year" carbon intensity target in the city of Tianjin can be realized. The results show that energy efficiency factors play a leading role in energy intensity decline in Tianjin, and the role of industrial structure factors is relatively small. In the effect of energy efficiency, the energy efficiency effect of the second industry is dominant, the energy efficiency of the third industry is the second, the energy efficiency of the first industry is very small, and the change of energy intensity is mainly Under the influence of the energy intensity changes in the second, third industry, the possibility of achieving the energy intensity target in Tianjin is more than 95% in maintaining the energy intensity development trend. At the same time, Tianjin is fully capable of achieving the energy intensity target under the implementation of the energy conservation policy. In addition, the energy structure optimization based on the "12th Five-Year" plan of Tianjin city is based on the energy intensity target. The carbon intensity target and energy intensity target are consistent, and carbon intensity objectives can also be achieved when energy intensity objectives are achieved.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X321;F127;F426.2

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 梅賜琪;劉志林;;行政問責(zé)與政策行為從眾:“十一五”節(jié)能目標實施進度地區(qū)間差異考察[J];中國人口.資源與環(huán)境;2012年12期

2 馬麗;李惠民;齊曄;;中央-地方互動與“十一五”節(jié)能目標責(zé)任考核政策的制定過程分析[J];公共管理學(xué)報;2012年01期

3 張炎治;聶銳;馮穎;;基于投入產(chǎn)出非線性模型的能源強度情景優(yōu)化[J];自然資源學(xué)報;2010年08期

4 戴彥德;周伏秋;朱躍中;熊華文;;實現(xiàn)單位GDP能耗降低20%目標的途徑和措施建議[J];中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟;2007年04期

5 姚愉芳;沈利生;;我國“十一五”節(jié)能目標的實現(xiàn)途徑、條件與政策建議[J];中國能源;2007年02期

6 何建坤;張希良;;我國“十一五”期間能源強度下降趨勢分析——如何實現(xiàn)能源強度下降20%的目標[J];中國軟科學(xué);2006年04期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 王斌;河南省節(jié)能目標運行預(yù)測分析[D];鄭州大學(xué);2013年

2 湯余平;“十二五”期間中國節(jié)能目標實現(xiàn)的可行性及對策研究[D];浙江工商大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號：1823885