本文選題：裝備制造業(yè)　切入點(diǎn)：財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)　出處：《重慶交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化逐步深入,日趨開(kāi)放的國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)給上市公司提供無(wú)窮商機(jī)的同時(shí),也帶來(lái)了無(wú)盡的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),致使上市公司發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)甚至破產(chǎn)。馬云曾經(jīng)談及企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)之道時(shí)說(shuō)過(guò):“一個(gè)企業(yè)通常在有太多錢(qián)和有太多機(jī)會(huì)這兩種情形下最易犯錯(cuò)。一個(gè)企業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人關(guān)注的不應(yīng)只是機(jī)遇,而更應(yīng)關(guān)注危機(jī),并將危機(jī)抹殺在萌芽當(dāng)中”。如何趁早預(yù)測(cè)和發(fā)現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī),保證企業(yè)健康、快速成長(zhǎng),這不光是上市公司關(guān)注的重心,也是各利益相關(guān)者的迫切需要。裝備制造業(yè)是制造業(yè)中的基礎(chǔ)核心產(chǎn)業(yè),其優(yōu)勢(shì)在于能夠極大地推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,增加就業(yè)崗位,緩解就業(yè)壓力,是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要支撐。但是我國(guó)裝備制造業(yè)在發(fā)展的過(guò)程中仍然存在許多問(wèn)題,假如這些問(wèn)題得不到及時(shí)處理將會(huì)影響企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)管理,甚至導(dǎo)致企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的發(fā)生。因此,有必要對(duì)裝備制造業(yè)進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警研究,在企業(yè)出現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)征兆之前,采取相應(yīng)舉措,控制財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的發(fā)生,防止不必要的損失。本文在參考國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用現(xiàn)代財(cái)務(wù)管理理論,以滬深兩市主板純A股裝備制造業(yè)上市公司為研究對(duì)象,選擇了2010至2014年間100家裝備制造業(yè)上市公司作為訓(xùn)練樣本(其中ST公司25家,非ST公司75家),選取了35個(gè)指標(biāo)變量進(jìn)行研究(其中財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)變量25個(gè),非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)變量10個(gè)),經(jīng)過(guò)顯著性檢驗(yàn)和主成分提取,最終選出9個(gè)變量進(jìn)入回歸,建立Logistic模型,并利用H-L檢驗(yàn)及40家裝備制造業(yè)上市公司(其中包括10家ST公司和30家非ST公司)作為檢驗(yàn)樣本分別進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明,該財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型對(duì)裝備制造業(yè)上市公司發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)具有較好的預(yù)測(cè)能力,且當(dāng)樣本量大幅縮減時(shí),模型依然具有穩(wěn)定的預(yù)測(cè)效果;同時(shí)隨著發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)時(shí)間越近,模型預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率越高,從而體現(xiàn)了模型的多時(shí)段預(yù)警和遠(yuǎn)期預(yù)警。最后結(jié)合相關(guān)問(wèn)題和我國(guó)現(xiàn)狀提出相應(yīng)的政策建議,并指出本文研究的局限性,對(duì)下一步工作提出了展望。
[Abstract]:With the gradual deepening of economic globalization, the increasingly open international and domestic markets provide endless business opportunities to listed companies, and at the same time, they also bring endless financial risks. "A company is usually most likely to make mistakes when it has too much money and too many opportunities." Note should not just be opportunities, And we should pay more attention to the crisis and wipe it out in the bud. "how to predict and discover the financial crisis as early as possible to ensure the healthy and rapid growth of enterprises is not only the focus of attention of listed companies," he said. The equipment manufacturing industry is the basic core industry in the manufacturing industry. Its advantage lies in its ability to greatly promote economic development, increase employment jobs, and alleviate employment pressure. It is an important support of national economy and industrial economy. However, there are still many problems in the development of equipment manufacturing industry in our country. If these problems are not dealt with in time, they will affect the production and management of enterprises. Therefore, it is necessary to carry on the financial crisis early warning research to the equipment manufacturing industry, before the enterprise appears the financial crisis symptom, takes the corresponding action, controls the financial crisis the occurrence, On the basis of referring to the relevant literature of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper applies modern financial management theory to the listed companies of pure A-share equipment manufacturing on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. From 2010 to 2014, 100 listed equipment manufacturing companies were selected as training samples (25 St companies and 75 non-St companies). After significant test and principal component extraction, 9 variables were selected to enter the regression, and the Logistic model was established. The H-L test and 40 listed equipment manufacturing companies (including 10 St companies and 30 non-St companies) were used as test samples to carry out statistical and empirical tests respectively. The financial crisis warning model has a good ability to predict the financial crisis of the listed companies in the equipment manufacturing industry, and when the sample size is greatly reduced, the model still has a stable forecasting effect, at the same time, with the time of the financial crisis approaching, The higher the prediction accuracy of the model is, the more the multi-period early warning and long-term early warning of the model are. Finally, combining the relevant problems and the present situation of our country, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward, and the limitations of this study are pointed out, and the future work is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.4;F406.7

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