本文選題：建筑業(yè)　切入點：因子分析　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)后期，建筑業(yè)被列入90年代國家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策綱要，成為了國民經(jīng)濟的重要支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。通過多年的經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計信息發(fā)現(xiàn)，建筑業(yè)與整個國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展有著密切的關(guān)系，是影響綜合國力的一個重要因素。隨著我國國民經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展，建筑業(yè)的重要地位和作用也越來越明顯。本文旨在研究建筑行業(yè)63家上市公司的發(fā)展情況，通過以小見大，以點帶面的邏輯分析建筑業(yè)的發(fā)展趨勢與其面臨的嚴(yán)峻的營改增問題。 在財務(wù)分析上，結(jié)合杜邦分析圖進行10項財務(wù)指標(biāo)的分析，同時分析其股票價格的分布；在統(tǒng)計方法上，使用因子分析方法提出5個因子，資本保全能力、盈利能力、資本運營、債務(wù)償還能力和發(fā)展能力。接著使用的得到的因子得分進行層次聚類，一共分成了五類，對其中四類進行了分析。發(fā)現(xiàn)建筑業(yè)上市公司的盈利能力普遍不高、資金流動性不強、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率偏高。唯一出色的是其債務(wù)償還能力。 除此，在統(tǒng)計上，，筆者通過最新收集的2008年1月至2014年2月的股票價格信息對滿足條件的26家公司進行的股票價格預(yù)測，均建立ARIMA模型，即對公司的一階差分序列建立Arma模型。結(jié)合財務(wù)管理的趨勢線分析法，發(fā)現(xiàn)建筑業(yè)上市公司存在經(jīng)濟下行的風(fēng)險。在營改增的問題上，分析了面對的難點并提供了解決建議。提出了營改增恐將導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商成本上升，而這部分增加的成本很有可能會轉(zhuǎn)嫁至購房者。提出了建議的稅率。提出了制度上和公司應(yīng)當(dāng)注意的問題。
[Abstract]:In the late period of 20th century, the construction industry was listed in the national industrial policy outline of 90s and became one of the important pillar industries of the national economy. Through many years of economic statistics, it was found that the construction industry had a close relationship with the development of the national economy as a whole. With the rapid development of China's national economy, the important position and role of the construction industry is becoming more and more obvious. This paper aims to study the development of 63 listed companies in the construction industry and see the whole through a small number of them. This paper analyzes the development trend of construction industry and the serious problem of reform and increase in construction industry. In the aspect of financial analysis, combining with DuPont analysis chart, 10 financial indexes are analyzed, and the distribution of stock price is analyzed at the same time. In the statistical method, five factors, capital preservation ability, profitability, are put forward by using factor analysis method. Capital operation, debt repayment ability and development ability. Then the factor scores obtained are classified into five categories, four of which are analyzed. It is found that the profitability of listed companies in the construction industry is generally not high. The liquidity is weak and the ratio of assets to liabilities is on the high side. The only outstanding thing is its ability to repay its debts. In addition, according to the latest stock price information collected from January 2008 to February 2014, the author establishes ARIMA model to predict the stock price of 26 companies. That is, the Arma model is established for the first order differential sequence of the company. Combined with the trend line analysis of financial management, it is found that the listed companies in the construction industry have the risk of economic downturn. This paper analyzes the difficulties faced and provides some suggestions for solving them. It is pointed out that the increase in the cost of real estate developers will be caused by the increase of the management reform. This part of the increased cost is likely to be passed on to the home buyer. The proposed tax rate is proposed. The system and the company should pay attention to the problem.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.92;F275

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 李炎琪;中國上市建筑企業(yè)經(jīng)營績效評價研究[D];長安大學(xué);2016年

2 彭澤;建筑業(yè)稅收負(fù)擔(dān)研究[D];吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué);2016年

本文編號：1571882