本文關(guān)鍵詞：四川省煤炭資源的供求平衡與可持續(xù)利用　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：一直以來(lái),煤炭在我國(guó)能源體系中占有十分重要的地位,其在我國(guó)一次能源生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中的比重達(dá)到70%左右,近幾年由于對(duì)天然氣、核能、水能等一些清潔能源的廣泛使用,使得經(jīng)濟(jì)體對(duì)煤炭的依存度出現(xiàn)了一定程度的降低,但我國(guó)的能源稟賦條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展階段決定今后一定時(shí)期內(nèi)我國(guó)能源結(jié)構(gòu)還將以煤炭為主。據(jù)相關(guān)研究預(yù)測(cè),未來(lái)30-50年煤炭在我國(guó)一次能源生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)中仍將占據(jù)半壁江山。煤炭作為最主要的能源,能否供求平衡以及可持續(xù)利用是關(guān)系到國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的重要問(wèn)題。 四川省能源稟賦與我國(guó)其他地區(qū)不同,其煤炭和石油儲(chǔ)量不足,但水能、天然氣和生物質(zhì)能資源相對(duì)豐富,是典型的“水多氣豐、缺煤少油”,煤炭資源約占資源總量的23.5%。然而四川省能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)與其儲(chǔ)量結(jié)構(gòu)有著很大的不同,從能源消費(fèi)的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看,多年來(lái)煤炭消費(fèi)占區(qū)內(nèi)能源消費(fèi)量的比重一直在60%左右。所以說(shuō),四川省生產(chǎn)以及消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)與其能源稟賦不符,本省目前煤炭消費(fèi)不僅比重高,而且絕對(duì)數(shù)量也很大,經(jīng)過(guò)多年開(kāi)采,省內(nèi)煤炭資源透支嚴(yán)重,如果沒(méi)有切實(shí)可行的供應(yīng)機(jī)制,隨著四川省經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)快速發(fā)展,煤炭資源的供需矛盾將日益突出。作為四川社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的能源基礎(chǔ),煤炭資源的可持續(xù)供給和利用對(duì)省內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展十分重要。四川是個(gè)發(fā)展中人口大省,在可以推測(cè)的時(shí)間內(nèi),四川省的能源需求還將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng),如果未來(lái)省內(nèi)煤炭資源的可持續(xù)供給問(wèn)題得不到解決,天然氣和水電的開(kāi)發(fā)利用又沒(méi)有達(dá)到一個(gè)較高的水平,能源供求緊張問(wèn)題馬上就會(huì)顯現(xiàn)。 近幾年來(lái)大氣污染嚴(yán)重影響了人們的生活和身體健康,對(duì)此,國(guó)務(wù)院發(fā)布《大氣污染防治行動(dòng)計(jì)劃》,按照計(jì)劃在2017年煤炭占能源消費(fèi)總量比重必須降到65%以下,并且原煤入選率達(dá)到70%以上。這為煤炭的清潔利用、提高煤炭洗選比例、能源生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等提出了新的要求。面對(duì)新的形勢(shì),四川作為煤炭生產(chǎn)消耗的重要省份,如何在合理利用省內(nèi)有限的煤炭資源,保證環(huán)境和生態(tài)安全的同時(shí)保障煤炭供需平衡,這已經(jīng)成為四川地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要課題。 本文采用數(shù)理分析與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,首先從能源的儲(chǔ)量狀況、供給狀況以及消費(fèi)狀況三個(gè)方面分析了四川省目前的主要能源供求形勢(shì),然后利用灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)四川省未來(lái)的煤炭資源的供給和需求進(jìn)行了分析預(yù)測(cè),在此基礎(chǔ)上,分析了四川煤炭資源的特點(diǎn)和可持續(xù)利用中存在的問(wèn)題,并根據(jù)以上研究進(jìn)一步探討了實(shí)現(xiàn)省內(nèi)煤炭資源可持續(xù)利用的對(duì)策。 基于以上思路,本文的篇章結(jié)構(gòu)由正文部分的五章構(gòu)成： 第一章：引言部分。本章主要闡述了論文的研究背景及意義；其次對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外的相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了整理,為本文提供研究基礎(chǔ)；最后提煉出本文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容并確定相應(yīng)的研究思路。 第二章：理論基礎(chǔ)。本章首先對(duì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論的形成過(guò)程、科學(xué)內(nèi)涵以及基本原則進(jìn)行綜述和概括,并闡述了強(qiáng)可持續(xù)與弱可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論的涵義及不同點(diǎn)。接著對(duì)不可再生資源的可持續(xù)發(fā)展進(jìn)行科學(xué)的界定,并提煉出煤炭資源可持續(xù)利用的內(nèi)涵以及目標(biāo)和意義。 第三章：四川煤炭資源供求狀況分析。首先,本章對(duì)四川能源的概況從三個(gè)角度進(jìn)行分析,包括儲(chǔ)量狀況、供給狀況和消費(fèi)狀況,在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步對(duì)四川目前的能源供需形勢(shì)和結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行分析；然后對(duì)四川煤炭特征狀況進(jìn)行了介紹；最后針對(duì)四川當(dāng)前煤炭資源的開(kāi)發(fā)利用中存在的問(wèn)題,進(jìn)行了一個(gè)系統(tǒng)的的介紹。 第四章：四川省煤炭生產(chǎn)與消費(fèi)預(yù)測(cè)。首先,對(duì)灰色系統(tǒng)理論及其主要研究?jī)?nèi)容做一個(gè)系統(tǒng)概括。然后分別建立了四川省煤炭資源生產(chǎn)以及消費(fèi)需求的GM(1,1)灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型,并對(duì)四川省未來(lái)7年的煤炭生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)需求量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。并根據(jù)生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的預(yù)測(cè)值對(duì)煤炭資源未來(lái)供求狀態(tài)進(jìn)行分析,研究四川省煤炭資源對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展的保障能力,并分析出現(xiàn)這種趨勢(shì)的原因。 第五章：實(shí)現(xiàn)四川省煤炭資源可持續(xù)利用的對(duì)策。在了解目前的煤炭供給需求形勢(shì)及對(duì)未來(lái)的供求平衡進(jìn)行深入分析后,為了實(shí)現(xiàn)四川煤炭資源的可持續(xù)利用,提出了以下幾點(diǎn)建議：(1)加強(qiáng)對(duì)煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)的資源整合,提高四川煤炭產(chǎn)能規(guī)模和產(chǎn)業(yè)集中度,推動(dòng)煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),提高煤炭資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用率和回收率。(2)優(yōu)化調(diào)整能源生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu),從能源的生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)方面有效抑制煤炭資源使用的高比例,主要包括提高水電和天然氣比例,以及大力發(fā)展新能源等方面。(3)加強(qiáng)煤炭資源的高效清潔利用,從煤炭的開(kāi)采、洗選、運(yùn)輸、轉(zhuǎn)化、利用的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)入手,從而改善環(huán)境空氣質(zhì)量。(4)完善煤炭資源開(kāi)發(fā)的生態(tài)補(bǔ)償制度(5)加快煤炭的生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)備建設(shè),提高煤炭的供應(yīng)應(yīng)急能力。 第六章：結(jié)論。首先本章在前文的分析基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)全文的研究情況進(jìn)行總結(jié)；其次指出研究的創(chuàng)新及不足之處。
[Abstract]:Coal has a very important position in China ' s energy system , which has a specific gravity of about 70 % in our country ' s primary energy production and consumption structure . In recent years , because of the extensive use of some clean energy sources such as natural gas , nuclear energy and water energy , our country ' s energy structure will be dominated by coal . The energy endowment of Sichuan province is different from that of other parts of China , but its coal and oil reserves are not enough , but water energy , natural gas and biomass resources are relatively rich , it is typical " water multi - gas abundant , lack of coal and little oil " , coal resources account for 23.5 % of total resources . In recent years , air pollution has seriously affected people ' s lives and health . In this regard , the State Council issued a plan of action plan for air pollution prevention . According to the plan , the proportion of coal consumption in 2017 must be reduced to less than 65 % , and the rate of raw coal is above 70 % . In the face of the new situation , Sichuan is an important province for coal production . How to guarantee the balance of coal supply and demand while rationally utilizing the limited coal resources in the province , which has become an important topic in the sustainable development of economy and society in Sichuan region . In this paper , the present situation of energy supply and demand in Sichuan province is analyzed from three aspects of energy reserve status , supply status and consumption status . Based on this , the paper analyzes the supply and demand of coal resources in Sichuan Province . On the basis of this , this paper analyzes the characteristics of Sichuan coal resources and the problems existing in sustainable utilization , and further discusses the countermeasures to realize sustainable use of coal resources in the province according to the above research . Based on the above thought , the text structure of this paper is composed of five chapters : Chapter One : The introduction part . This chapter mainly expounds the background and significance of the research . Secondly , the relevant research literatures at home and abroad are collated and the research foundation is provided . Finally , the main contents of this paper are refined and the corresponding research ideas are determined . Chapter 2 : Theoretical basis . This chapter summarizes and summarizes the formation process , scientific connotation and basic principles of sustainable development theory , and expounds the meaning and different points of the theory of strong sustainable development and weak sustainable development . Chapter 3 : The analysis of the supply and demand of Sichuan coal resources . First , this chapter analyzes the general situation of Sichuan energy resources from three angles , including reserve status , supply status and consumption status . On the basis of this , the present situation and structure of energy supply and demand in Sichuan are analyzed further , and then the status of coal characteristics in Sichuan is introduced . Finally , a systematic introduction is made on the problems existing in the development and utilization of the current coal resources in Sichuan . In chapter 4 , the prediction of coal production and consumption in Sichuan Province is made . First , GM ( 1,1 ) grey forecasting model of coal resource production and consumption demand in Sichuan province is established . Then , the demand of coal production and consumption in Sichuan Province in the next seven years is predicted . According to the forecast value of production and consumption , the paper studies the security ability of coal resources in economy , society and environment , and analyzes the causes of this trend . In order to realize the sustainable use of coal resources in Sichuan province , the author puts forward the following suggestions : ( 1 ) strengthening the resource integration of coal industry , improving the coal production capacity scale and industrial concentration , promoting the upgrading of coal industry structure and improving the utilization rate and recovery rate of coal resources . ( 4 ) Improve the ecological compensation system ( 5 ) of coal resources development to speed up the construction of coal production reserve and improve the supply emergency capacity of coal . Chapter 6 : Conclusion : Firstly , this chapter summarizes the research of the whole text based on the analysis of the previous text , and points out the innovation and deficiency of the research .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.21

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