發(fā)布時間：2018-11-04 17:44

【摘要】：新思想、新技術、新方法相繼促進著當今社會的進步,是企業(yè)占領先行優(yōu)勢的重要競爭手段。企業(yè)若想在更新?lián)Q代如此快速的當今社會取得進步和發(fā)展,根本因素便是創(chuàng)新,而創(chuàng)新擴散是企業(yè)占領市場、持續(xù)發(fā)展的不竭動力。隨著全民創(chuàng)新、萬眾創(chuàng)新時代的到來,人們對于創(chuàng)新的關注度越來越高。對于一個創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品來說,能否成功擴散是創(chuàng)新成敗的關鍵,因為創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的社會價值、經(jīng)濟價值只有成功被用戶接受采納才能實現(xiàn)。因此,深入研究現(xiàn)實社會中各主體行為和創(chuàng)新擴散的影響因素對商家制定戰(zhàn)略計劃、運營新產(chǎn)品都有著重要意義。創(chuàng)新擴散的媒介是市場,市場中主要存在兩類主體:消費者和企業(yè)。市場中主體相互之間存在著競爭、合作等多種關系,信息在擁有關系的主體之間傳播擴散,為消費者做出決策提供參考意見。而消費者之間在傳遞信息時建立起的關系又可稱為人際關系網(wǎng)絡。由此可見,創(chuàng)新擴散是一種微觀主體決策和宏觀擴散行為相結合的過程,與社會網(wǎng)絡微觀個體元素和元素之間相互作用涌現(xiàn)為宏觀動力學行為的演化模式相吻合。因此本文立足于社會網(wǎng)絡結構來研究創(chuàng)新擴散。作為一種新型的電子商務模式,與傳統(tǒng)電子商務相比,移動商務最大的特點是以移動通信網(wǎng)絡為媒介,以移動終端設備為載體,促進了新產(chǎn)品相關信息的傳播和在線交易。隨著"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+"熱潮的到來,移動商務在市場中的適用領域越來越廣泛。因此,本文以移動商務活動為例,研究移動消費者的行為狀態(tài)對創(chuàng)新擴散的影響。在創(chuàng)新擴散過程中存在許多影響因素,目前學術界認為移動商務領域的影響因素主要集中在移動商務自身的發(fā)展、用戶對移動商務的感知、用戶的個性特征這三點。其中移動用戶的概念漂移是不可忽視的重要因素,如何從行為模式角度描述主體的概念漂移并將其引入到創(chuàng)新擴散演化過程中,以往這方面的研究很少被關注。因此,本文在已有研究的基礎上引入概念漂移因素作為中間變量,并依據(jù)班杜拉的三元交互理論,對社會網(wǎng)絡環(huán)境、交互行為以及主體狀態(tài)三部分進行分析,在SIR傳染病模型的基礎上設計主體狀態(tài)轉換規(guī)則,運用NetLogo平臺構建基于概念漂移的創(chuàng)新擴散仿真實驗模型。通過研究得出如下結論。首先,社會網(wǎng)絡結構的差異對創(chuàng)新擴散存在著不同的影響。其中無標度社會網(wǎng)絡在所有類型的網(wǎng)絡結構中環(huán)境最開放,網(wǎng)絡中節(jié)點之間關系優(yōu)質(zhì),信息分享路徑廣泛,獲取信息的價值高,并且人們的社會關系會不斷擴張,創(chuàng)新的輻射范圍會更廣,從而更有利于創(chuàng)新的擴散。其次,在移動商務活動過程中,消費者通過與企業(yè)或其他用戶的交互獲取創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的相關信息,通過對信息的評估形成自己的決策。期間移動性能的優(yōu)劣,創(chuàng)新企業(yè)、產(chǎn)品的影響力,以及主體自身的理性程度等都會影響消費者決策的形成過程。移動性差、創(chuàng)新影響力弱、主體自愈能力強都可能會造成消費者對該產(chǎn)品的概念漂移,從而阻礙創(chuàng)新擴散。這些因素的影響效果并不是單一的,會形成不同程度、不同類型的概念漂移。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)較大程度以及突變式類型的概念漂移對創(chuàng)新擴散的不利影響更明顯。最后,本文針對主要研究內(nèi)容和結果進行了總結,并為企業(yè)擴大市場占有率、吸引用戶、提升用戶粘度、預防用戶流失等提出了相關管理建議:企業(yè)應該盡力拓寬擴散渠道,在更開放的環(huán)境中爭取更多的潛在群體;在擴散新產(chǎn)品的過程中,要注重意見領袖群體的選擇及培養(yǎng),提高產(chǎn)品自身質(zhì)量,加大宣傳力度,以及針對不同特質(zhì)的用戶群體規(guī)劃相應的擴散方案;同時,應重點注意持徘徊態(tài)度的群體,及時防止他們在漂移的過程中轉變?yōu)榱魇в脩簟?br/>[Abstract]:The new thought, the new technology and the new method have promoted the progress of today's society, and it is an important means to take advantage of the enterprise's occupation. If the enterprise wants to make progress and development in such a rapid society, the fundamental factor is innovation, and innovation proliferation is the driving force of the enterprise's market and sustainable development. With the innovation of the whole people and the arrival of all kinds of innovation times, people have become more and more attention to innovation. For an innovative product, success is the key to success or failure, because the social value and economic value of the innovative product can only be achieved by the adoption of the user. Therefore, in-depth study of the influence factors of each subject's behavior and innovation spread in the real society is of great significance to the establishment of strategic plan and operation of new products. The medium of innovation and proliferation is the market, and there are two kinds of main bodies in the market: consumers and enterprises. In the market, there are many kinds of relationships, such as competition and cooperation among the main bodies of the market, the information spreads among the subjects with the relationship, and provides a reference for the decision-making of consumers. And the relationship between consumers in passing information can also be referred to as the network of human relationships. It can be seen that innovation diffusion is a process of micro-body decision-making and macro-diffusion behavior, and the interaction between micro-individual elements and elements of social network emerges to coincide with the evolution pattern of macro-dynamic behavior. Therefore, this paper bases on the social network structure to study the innovation diffusion. As a new type of e-business model, compared with traditional e-commerce, the biggest characteristic of mobile commerce is to use mobile communication network as the medium, mobile terminal equipment as carrier, and promote the dissemination of new product-related information and on-line transaction. With the advent of the "Internet +" boom, mobile commerce is becoming more and more popular in the market. Therefore, based on the mobile business activity, this paper studies the influence of the behavior state of mobile consumers on the innovation diffusion. There are many influential factors in the process of innovation and diffusion. At present, the academic circles believe that the influential factors in the field of mobile commerce mainly focus on the development of mobile commerce itself, the perception of users on mobile commerce, and the individual characteristics of users. In this paper, the concept drift of mobile users is an important factor which is not negligible. How to describe the concept drift of the subject from the behavior mode angle and introduce it into the evolution of innovation diffusion has little attention in the past. Therefore, the concept drift factor is introduced as the intermediate variable on the basis of the existing research, and the social network environment, the interaction behavior and the main body state are analyzed according to the ternary interaction theory of Bandura. On the basis of SIR epidemic model, the subject state conversion rules are designed, and the model of innovative diffusion simulation based on concept drift is constructed by using NetLogo platform. The following conclusions were obtained from the study. Firstly, the difference of social network structure has different influence on innovation diffusion. wherein the non-scale social network is most open in all types of network structures, the relationship among nodes in the network is high, the information sharing path is wide, the value of obtaining information is high, and the social relations of people are continuously expanded, and the innovative radiation range can be wider, so as to be more beneficial to the diffusion of innovation. Secondly, in the course of mobile business activity, the consumer acquires the relevant information of the innovative product through the interaction with the enterprise or other users, and forms its own decision through the evaluation of the information. During the period, the advantages and disadvantages of mobile performance, the influence of innovation enterprises, products, and the rationality of the subject themselves will affect the process of consumer decision-making. Poor mobility, weak innovation, strong self-healing capability can cause consumers to drift in the concept of the product, thus hampering innovation diffusion. The effects of these factors are not single, resulting in different degrees of conceptual drift of different types. It is found that the concept drift of the large degree and the mutation type has a more adverse effect on the innovation diffusion. Finally, this paper summarizes the main research contents and results, and puts forward relevant management suggestions for enterprises to expand market share, attract users, improve user's viscosity, prevent user's loss and so on. Enterprises should try to broaden the diffusion channel. More potential groups are sought in a more open environment; in the process of diffusing new products, attention is paid to the selection and cultivation of opinion leader groups, to improve the quality of products, to increase awareness and to plan the corresponding diffusion schemes for users of different qualities; at the same time, Particular attention should be paid to the wandering group and to prevent them from shifting to losing users in the course of drift.
【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F273.1

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