本文選題：第三方支付 + 貨幣供應(yīng)量�。� 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融創(chuàng)新逐漸加快,其所帶來的影響也越來越被人所關(guān)注�；ヂ�(lián)網(wǎng)金融主要分為四大類,第三方支付類、融資平臺類、理財(cái)平臺類和虛擬貨幣類。網(wǎng)絡(luò)信息技術(shù)的發(fā)展給電子商務(wù)帶來了飛躍式的發(fā)展,作為電子商務(wù)中的支付環(huán)節(jié),第三方支付也給支付行業(yè)帶來了巨大變化。第三方支付主要是指以支付寶為代表的具有一定信譽(yù)保障和實(shí)力的非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)。電子商務(wù)交易過程中,商家和消費(fèi)者之間存在一定的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),第三方支付的出現(xiàn)保證了交易過程中貨物和資金的分離,解決了交易中的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題,從而保證了交易的順利完成。目前人們不僅線上可以購物,線下也可以作為一種支付方式,第三方支付已經(jīng)逐漸改變了人們的支付方式。艾瑞咨詢2014年統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示,我國第三方網(wǎng)絡(luò)支付交易總額已經(jīng)高達(dá)8萬多億元,且2015年的交易總額已經(jīng)突破了 10萬億元。第三方支付使人們的支付變得越來越便捷,交易規(guī)模也越來越龐大,是否對我國貨幣流通帶來一定影響;如果有影響,影響有多大;政府在做宏觀調(diào)控時(shí),是否應(yīng)該考慮第三方支付行業(yè)對政策效果的影響,這些問題都需要探究。近幾年第三方支付發(fā)展迅猛,無論學(xué)術(shù)界還是非學(xué)術(shù)界對其的關(guān)注越來越多。查閱相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)發(fā)現(xiàn),目前研究第三方支付大都停留在理論方面,且對第三方支付的發(fā)展模式和監(jiān)管探究相對很多。探究第三方支付對貨幣流通的有一部分文獻(xiàn),但主要大部分只是從貨幣乘數(shù)或貨幣流通速度單方面展開研究,為了全面分析第三方支付對我國貨幣流通體系的影響,本文選擇從貨幣供應(yīng)量、貨幣乘數(shù)和貨幣流通速度三個(gè)方面展開實(shí)證分析。本文主要從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面展開分析。從理論角度分析第三方支付對我國貨幣流通的影響機(jī)制,而后采用時(shí)間序列實(shí)證分析方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析和檢驗(yàn)。首先,采用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)分析各個(gè)變量之間存在的長期趨勢;然后,應(yīng)用Granger因果檢驗(yàn)分析各變量數(shù)量上的因果關(guān)系,最后,采用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析系統(tǒng)中各變量之間的短期動態(tài)變化關(guān)系。第三方支付對我國貨幣供應(yīng)量影響的理論基礎(chǔ)為凱恩斯貨幣需求理論。假設(shè)貨幣供應(yīng)量為內(nèi)生的,貨幣的需求和供給一段時(shí)間內(nèi)保持均衡,第三方支付的替代效應(yīng)使得貨幣由M0向M1和M2的轉(zhuǎn)移,最終使得M1和M2增大。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果顯示:第三方支付和貨幣供應(yīng)量M1、M2之間存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系,即第三方支付的發(fā)展對貨幣供應(yīng)量M1和M2具有增大效應(yīng)。理論分析表明第三方支付對我國貨幣乘數(shù)具有雙重影響。一方面,第三方支付通過影響現(xiàn)金漏損率、超額準(zhǔn)備金率等增大貨幣乘數(shù)。另一方面,第三方支付使得一部分的資金脫離銀行信用系統(tǒng),從而減小了基礎(chǔ)貨幣創(chuàng)造,進(jìn)而減小貨幣乘數(shù)。實(shí)證分析表明:從長期來看,第三方支付對我國貨幣乘數(shù)K1具有減小效應(yīng),但第三方支付對貨幣乘數(shù)K2的具有增大效應(yīng)。貨幣流通速度的影響因素有多種,但主要決定因素是社會交易商品與勞務(wù)的總價(jià)值和貨幣供應(yīng)量,同時(shí)貨幣流通速度也受到消費(fèi)習(xí)慣和支付習(xí)慣的影響。短期內(nèi),當(dāng)社會交易的商品和勞務(wù)總價(jià)值保持不變時(shí),第三方支付使得貨幣供給增加,從而使得貨幣流通速度減小。但長期內(nèi),第三方支付使得人們的支付變得更加便捷,改變?nèi)藗兊南M(fèi)和支付習(xí)慣,使得貨幣流通速度加快。文章實(shí)證分析表明:長期內(nèi),第三方支付對貨幣流通速度具有加快效應(yīng);但短期來看,第三方支付對貨幣流通速度具有減小效應(yīng)。本文的創(chuàng)新之處主要有以下幾點(diǎn):第一,本文的選題新穎。第三方支付作為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的重要組成部分,是近幾年新興事物,無論是在學(xué)術(shù)界和非學(xué)術(shù)界都越來越關(guān)注。第二,本文的研究視角新穎。目前對第三方支付的研究主要集中在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)管方面,對第三方支付的實(shí)證研究不是很多,本文總結(jié)了第三方支付發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,并從貨幣供應(yīng)量、貨幣乘數(shù)和貨幣流通速度三個(gè)方面全面分析對我國貨幣流通的影響,并從這三個(gè)方面分別進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析和檢驗(yàn)。第三,本文的實(shí)證采用的數(shù)據(jù)為最新數(shù)據(jù)。本文也存在研究不足之處。一方面,由于第三方支付是近幾年發(fā)展起來的新鮮事物,學(xué)術(shù)界剛剛開始關(guān)注,目前對第三方支付的探究還不是很深入,再加上本人的研究能力有限,所以本文對第三方支付的研究可能不是很透徹。另一方面,第三方支付目前還未有一個(gè)權(quán)威的界定,同時(shí)也缺乏權(quán)威的數(shù)據(jù)來源,數(shù)據(jù)量相對較少,所以做實(shí)證分析和檢驗(yàn)可能受到數(shù)據(jù)權(quán)威性和數(shù)據(jù)量的局限。
[Abstract]:With the development of the Internet, the Internet financial innovation is becoming more and more rapid, and its influence has been paid more and more attention. The Internet finance is divided into four major categories, third party payment, financing platform, financial platform and virtual currency. The development of network information technology has brought a leap forward development to e-commerce. Payment link in e-commerce, the third party payment to the payment industry has brought great changes. The third party payment mainly refers to a certain reputation and strength of the non bank institutions represented by Alipay. In the process of electronic commerce, there is a certain credit risk between businesses and consumers, third party payment guarantee. The separation of goods and funds in the process of easy process solves the problem of credit risk in the transaction, thus ensuring the smooth completion of the transaction. At present, people can not only do shopping online, but also can be used as a way of payment. The third party payment has gradually changed people's payment formula. ERI Advisory 2014 statistics show that China's third party network The total amount of collateral transactions has reached more than 8 billion yuan, and the total volume of transactions in 2015 has exceeded 10 trillion yuan. Third party payments make people's payment more and more convenient, the size of the transaction is becoming more and more large, whether it has a certain impact on the currency circulation in China; if there is an impact, how big the impact is; whether the government is doing macro regulation and control, whether or not The impact of the third party payment industry on the effect of the policy should be taken into account. These issues need to be explored. In recent years, the third party payments have developed rapidly, both academia and non academic circles have paid more and more attention to it. There is a lot of research on the type and supervision of the third party payment to the currency circulation, but the main part is only from the monetary multiplier or the currency circulation speed unilaterally. In order to analyze the influence of the third party payment on the currency circulation system in our country, this article chooses the money supply, the currency multiplier and the currency circulation. An empirical analysis is carried out in the three aspects of speed. This paper mainly analyzes the two aspects of the theory and the empirical analysis. From the theoretical point of view, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of the third party payment on the currency circulation in China, and then uses the time series empirical analysis method to carry out empirical analysis and test. First, the cointegration test is used to analyze the long term of the existence of each variable. Then, the Granger causality test is used to analyze the causality of the number of variables. Finally, the impulse response function is used to analyze the short-term dynamic changes between the variables in the system. The theoretical basis of the influence of the third party payment on the supply of China's money is Keynes's money demand theory, assuming that the money supply is endogenous, and the money supply is endogenous. The demand and supply remain balanced for a period of time. The substitution effect of third party payment makes the transfer of money from M0 to M1 and M2, and eventually makes M1 and M2 increase. The empirical analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the third party payment and the money supply M1 and M2, that is, the development of the third party payment has an increasing effect on the money supply M1 and M2. The theoretical analysis shows that the third party payment has a double influence on the monetary multiplier of China. On the one hand, the third party payment increases the monetary multiplier by affecting the rate of cash leakage, the excess reserve ratio and so on. On the other hand, the third party payment makes a part of the fund out of the bank credit system, thus reducing the basic money creation and then reducing the currency. The empirical analysis shows that, in the long run, the third party payment has a reduced effect on China's monetary multiplier K1, but the third party payment has an increasing effect on the monetary multiplier K2. There are many factors affecting the speed of money circulation, but the main determinant is the total value and the money supply of the social transaction commodity and labor, and the currency circulation at the same time. Speed is also influenced by consumption habits and payment habits. In the short term, when the total value of goods and services in social transactions remain unchanged, the third party payment increases the supply of money and thus reduces the rate of currency circulation. In the long run, third party payments make people's payments more convenient, changing people's consumption and payment habits. The empirical analysis shows that in the long run, the third party payment has an accelerated effect on the currency circulation speed; but in the short term, the third party payment has a reduced effect on the currency circulation speed. The innovation of this paper is mainly the following points: first, the topic of this article is novel. The third party payment is the Internet. The important part of finance is the emerging things in recent years, both in the academic and non academic circles. Second, the research perspective of this article is novel. The research on the third party payment is mainly focused on the risk regulation, and the empirical research on the third party payment is not many. This article summarizes the development of the third party payment, And from three aspects of money supply, monetary multiplier and currency circulation speed, this paper analyzes the influence of the currency circulation in our country comprehensively, and carries out empirical analysis and test from these three aspects. Third, the data used in this paper is the latest data. This paper also has the shortage of research. On the one hand, because the third party payment is in recent years. The academic circle has just begun to pay attention to the new things, and the research on the third party payment is not very deep, and the research ability of the third party may not be very thorough. On the other hand, the third party payment has not yet a definitive definition, but also the lack of authoritative data. Sources, data volume is relatively small, so empirical analysis and testing may be limited by data authority and data volume.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F822.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 趙祥;第三方支付對貨幣流通速度的影響研究[D];貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2017年

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本文編號：1929319