本文選題：電子商務(wù) + 出口��； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：近幾年來,"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+"的概念已經(jīng)深入人心,比如電子商務(wù)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融(ITFIN)、在線旅游、在線影視、在線房產(chǎn)等等都耳熟能詳。"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+"催生出無數(shù)新興行業(yè),促使經(jīng)濟(jì)形態(tài)不斷地發(fā)生演變,從而為實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)傾注活力,并且為改革、創(chuàng)新和發(fā)展提供了廣闊的網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái),這些都是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)思維積極實(shí)踐的成果。2015年6月10日的國務(wù)院常務(wù)會(huì)議上,李克強(qiáng)總理指出:促進(jìn)跨境電子商務(wù)健康快速發(fā)展,用"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+外貿(mào)"實(shí)現(xiàn)優(yōu)進(jìn)優(yōu)出,有利于擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)、推動(dòng)開放型經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展升級(jí)、打造新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長點(diǎn)。能否抓住這個(gè)機(jī)遇,關(guān)鍵問題在于如何有效地運(yùn)用電子商務(wù)發(fā)展來推動(dòng)我國對(duì)外貿(mào)易的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。隨著"一帶一路"國家戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施,絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶和海上絲綢之路日漸成型,在全球出口低迷的情況下,"網(wǎng)上絲綢之路"——跨境電子商務(wù)的發(fā)展是我國傳統(tǒng)外貿(mào)通過"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+外貿(mào)"實(shí)現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的必然選擇。因此,為了順應(yīng)時(shí)代潮流,響應(yīng)國家頂層戰(zhàn)略,本文基于"一帶一路"沿線國家的樣本,研究電子商務(wù)發(fā)展對(duì)中國出口貿(mào)易的動(dòng)態(tài)影響。在對(duì)現(xiàn)有相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,本文首先構(gòu)建了測(cè)度電子商務(wù)發(fā)展水平的指標(biāo)體系,并且利用熵權(quán)法,使用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)測(cè)算出了 1999-2014年中國電子商務(wù)發(fā)展指數(shù),然后基于UNcomtrade數(shù)據(jù)庫6位HS產(chǎn)品編碼的雙邊貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù),測(cè)算出了 1999-2014年中國向"一帶一路"沿線60個(gè)國家出口的二元邊際。從交易成本理論、貿(mào)易中介理論、貿(mào)易成本理論、貿(mào)易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論四個(gè)角度分析了電子商務(wù)發(fā)展對(duì)出口貿(mào)易的影響。根據(jù)電子商務(wù)發(fā)展對(duì)出口貿(mào)易影響的模型分析,構(gòu)建計(jì)量模型,然后運(yùn)用向量自回歸模型(PVAR模型)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。在對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,確定PVAR模型的最優(yōu)滯后階數(shù),基于廣義矩估計(jì)(GMM估計(jì))、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解,探究電子商務(wù)發(fā)展對(duì)中國出口,尤其是二元邊際的動(dòng)態(tài)影響軌跡。通過理論與實(shí)證分析,得出幾點(diǎn)結(jié)論:(1)電子商務(wù)發(fā)展對(duì)出口額一直表現(xiàn)為正向作用,對(duì)出口增長的動(dòng)態(tài)影響軌跡趨勢(shì)一致,均是先正后負(fù),再正,然后逐漸收斂,并且對(duì)集約邊際變動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)度大于對(duì)擴(kuò)展邊際的變動(dòng)。(2)出口市場(chǎng)規(guī)模促進(jìn)了二元邊際的增長,抑制了出口額的增長,并且是對(duì)出口額變動(dòng)貢獻(xiàn)度最高的因素,對(duì)擴(kuò)展邊際變動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)度大于對(duì)集約邊際的變動(dòng)。(3)生產(chǎn)率水平制約出口額的增長,是所有因素中貢獻(xiàn)率最小的,對(duì)二元邊際的消極影響也很大,但從第二期開始對(duì)擴(kuò)展邊際產(chǎn)生微小的正向影響,并且對(duì)擴(kuò)展邊際變動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)度大于對(duì)集約邊際的變動(dòng)。(4)出口目的國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶數(shù)量對(duì)出口額產(chǎn)生負(fù)向影響,對(duì)二元邊際主要表現(xiàn)為促進(jìn)作用,但在第二期會(huì)抑制擴(kuò)展邊際的增長,并且對(duì)集約邊際變動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)度是所有因素中最大的。根據(jù)研究結(jié)論,本文提出了幾點(diǎn)相應(yīng)的政策建議:(1)充分發(fā)揮電子商務(wù)發(fā)展對(duì)二元邊際的積極作用,并規(guī)避各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn);(2)充分挖掘出口市場(chǎng)消費(fèi)潛力,適當(dāng)增加出口產(chǎn)品異質(zhì)性;(3)降低出口貿(mào)易成本,尤其是固定成本;(4)促進(jìn)科技進(jìn)步,提高生產(chǎn)率水平。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the concept of "Internet plus" has been popular, such as e-commerce, Internet Banking (ITFIN), online travel, online video, online real estate are for having heard it many times and so on. "Internet plus" spawned numerous emerging industries, promote economic pattern changed, so as to pour vitality of the real economy, and reform innovation, and The exhibition provides a broad platform, these are the executive meeting of the State Council Internet thinking actively practice the achievements of.2015 in June 10th, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out: to promote the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, "Internet plus foreign trade to achieve better into the excellent, is conducive to the expansion of consumption, promote the upgrading of the open economy, create new The economic growth point. Can seize this opportunity, the key question is how to effectively use the electronic commerce development to promote the sustainable development of foreign trade in China. With the implementation of the "The Belt and Road national strategy, Silk Road Economic Belt and maritime silk road gradually formed, in the global export downturn," the road online silk" - cross-border e-commerce is the development of China's traditional foreign trade through the "Internet plus foreign trade" to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the inevitable choice. Therefore, in order to adapt to the trend of the times, in response to the national top-level strategy, based on "The Belt and Road along the country's sample, research on e-commerce development dynamic effect of Chinese on existing export trade. Related article On the basis of combing, this paper first constructs an index system to measure the development level of e-commerce, and uses the entropy weight method to calculate the 1999-2014 year China e-commerce development index by using the relevant data. Then, based on the dual trade data encoded by the 6 bit HS product of the UNcomtrade database, it calculates the China to "1999-2014 years". The Belt and Road "along the 60 countries export two yuan. The marginal transaction cost theory, intermediary trade theory, trade cost theory, four aspects of trade risk theory to analyze the impact of Electronic Commerce on the export trade. According to the analysis model of the influence of e-commerce development on export trade, establishing the econometric model, and then use the vector from the back On the basis of the stability test of the data, the optimal lag order of the PVAR model is determined, based on the generalized moment estimation (GMM estimation), the impulse response function and the variance decomposition, on the basis of the stability test of the data, to explore the dynamic influence path of the development of electronic commerce to China's export, especially the two yuan margin. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, the theoretical and empirical analysis is carried out. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the development of e-commerce has been positive to the export volume, and the trend of the dynamic impact on the export growth is consistent, both positive and negative, then positive, and then gradually converging, and the contribution to the intensive marginal change is greater than that of the extension marginal. (2) the scale of the export market has promoted the growth of the margin of two yuan. The increase in export volume is inhibited and the highest contribution to the export turnover is the factor of contribution to the marginal change. (3) the productivity level restricts the growth of the export volume, which is the smallest contribution rate in all factors and the negative effect on the two yuan margin, but from the second period to the expansion side There is a small positive impact on the margin, and the contribution to the marginal change is greater than that of the intensive marginal change. (4) the number of Internet users in the export destination country has a negative impact on the export volume, which is the main promoting effect on the marginal margin of the two yuan, but in the second period it will inhibit the growth of the extended marginal and contribute to the intensive marginal change. It is the biggest of all factors. According to the conclusion of the study, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions: (1) give full play to the positive role of e-commerce development to the two yuan margin and avoid various risks; (2) fully excavate the export market consumption potential, appropriately increase the heterogeneity of export products; (3) reduce export trade costs, especially fixed costs. (4) promote the progress of science and technology and improve the level of productivity.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F724.6

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