【摘要】：獎(jiǎng)懲系統(tǒng)對(duì)于優(yōu)化交通環(huán)境、改善交通秩序以及規(guī)范車主的駕車行為、形成良好的駕駛習(xí)慣具有積極的促進(jìn)作用。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在我國(guó)車輛保險(xiǎn)的總收入占當(dāng)年財(cái)產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)總收入的比值遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)百分之五十,一度達(dá)到百分之七十以上。隨著我國(guó)車輛保有率高速增長(zhǎng),我國(guó)發(fā)生的交通事故數(shù)量以及所造成的財(cái)產(chǎn)損失總額一直居高不下。從車輛保險(xiǎn)的角度來(lái)制定合理的獎(jiǎng)懲制度也是改善我國(guó)交通秩序的必要的經(jīng)濟(jì)手段。同時(shí)獎(jiǎng)懲制度也在一定程度上對(duì)汽車保險(xiǎn)的保費(fèi)收入和賠付支付兩方面有著重要影響。近年來(lái)我國(guó)交通法規(guī)對(duì)有關(guān)的交通違法行為的處罰規(guī)則做了重要的修訂,同時(shí)中國(guó)保監(jiān)會(huì)對(duì)車險(xiǎn)條款和費(fèi)率管理體制進(jìn)行了改革。汽車保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率開(kāi)始進(jìn)入深化改革階段。汽車保險(xiǎn)作為重要的財(cái)產(chǎn)保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品之一,費(fèi)率的厘定基礎(chǔ)也是以純風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)加上附加保費(fèi)的基本思路來(lái)確定最終保費(fèi),獎(jiǎng)懲系統(tǒng)根據(jù)被保險(xiǎn)人以前年度的出險(xiǎn)記錄,來(lái)確定獎(jiǎng)懲系統(tǒng)調(diào)整系數(shù),在基礎(chǔ)保費(fèi)的計(jì)算基礎(chǔ)之上對(duì)其保費(fèi)進(jìn)行一定的調(diào)整。本文依據(jù)保險(xiǎn)公司近年的出險(xiǎn)數(shù)據(jù),利用貝葉斯方法選擇負(fù)二項(xiàng)模型作為獎(jiǎng)懲系統(tǒng)概率模型,并對(duì)此進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,建立了考慮索賠次數(shù)的保費(fèi)計(jì)算模型,最終得到最優(yōu)BMS。進(jìn)而分析了獎(jiǎng)懲系統(tǒng)的馬爾科夫性,以及達(dá)到穩(wěn)態(tài)的過(guò)程、穩(wěn)定保費(fèi)的情況以及穩(wěn)態(tài)保費(fèi)。當(dāng)我們獲得穩(wěn)態(tài)保費(fèi),也就是相當(dāng)于在一定程度上可以確定保險(xiǎn)公司未來(lái)可能收入保費(fèi)的整體情況,如果我們可以知道保險(xiǎn)公司未來(lái)可能賠付的情況,就可以對(duì)保險(xiǎn)公司的財(cái)務(wù)穩(wěn)定狀況有一個(gè)大致的預(yù)判和準(zhǔn)備。我們利用二項(xiàng)logistic回歸的思路,以及保險(xiǎn)公司的被保險(xiǎn)人數(shù)據(jù),選擇被保險(xiǎn)人駕齡、年齡、性別、年行駛里程數(shù)等七個(gè)因子,建立出險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)模型,通過(guò)該模型預(yù)測(cè)被保險(xiǎn)人的出險(xiǎn)可能性,為保險(xiǎn)公司預(yù)測(cè)出險(xiǎn)賠付提供思路和方法。在2016年6月,車險(xiǎn)改革已經(jīng)遍及全國(guó)各地,本文對(duì)我國(guó)費(fèi)改前后實(shí)行的獎(jiǎng)懲制度,建立相應(yīng)的馬爾科夫轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣,并選取RSAL系數(shù)、變異系數(shù)、ECL系數(shù)等嚴(yán)幾個(gè)代表性的嚴(yán)厲性指標(biāo)對(duì)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行綜合性的評(píng)價(jià)。費(fèi)改后的獎(jiǎng)懲系統(tǒng)更加嚴(yán)厲,BMS級(jí)別擴(kuò)大,獎(jiǎng)罰力度增強(qiáng),從變異系數(shù)來(lái)看,新的BMS比費(fèi)改的BMS要嚴(yán)厲許多,但是,新的BMS對(duì)于新進(jìn)入的投保人來(lái)說(shuō),有著較高的隱形懲罰。最后對(duì)于車險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率改革和改善車險(xiǎn)獎(jiǎng)懲系統(tǒng)提出相關(guān)的建議,以促進(jìn)汽車保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展。汽車保險(xiǎn)改革已經(jīng)推行至全國(guó)各地,但是對(duì)于改革的說(shuō)明工作仍然需要重視,汽車保險(xiǎn)改革使得風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分級(jí)增加,對(duì)于優(yōu)質(zhì)駕駛員的保費(fèi)降低,出險(xiǎn)次數(shù)較多的駕駛員懲罰加大,對(duì)于新進(jìn)入的駕駛員的隱形懲罰也相對(duì)提高,這是為了更好的鼓勵(lì)駕駛員養(yǎng)成良好的駕駛習(xí)慣,減少出險(xiǎn)事故,而不是為了使出險(xiǎn)次數(shù)較多的駕駛員退出車險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng),從而造成更大的隱患。除此之外,考慮賠款額在內(nèi)的模型、更好的利用駕駛員的信息、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分級(jí)的細(xì)化,仍然是未來(lái)的發(fā)展方向,也是本文未來(lái)的研究方向。
[Abstract]:The reward and punishment system plays an active role in optimizing the traffic environment, improving the traffic order and regulating the driving behavior of the vehicle owner and forming a good driving habit. The data show that the total income of vehicle insurance in our country accounts for more than 50% of the total income of property insurance premium in the current year, and more than 70%. With the high-speed growth of vehicle tenure, the number of traffic accidents in our country and the total loss of property have been high. The establishment of reasonable reward and punishment system from the angle of vehicle insurance is also the necessary economic means to improve the traffic order in our country. At the same time, the reward and punishment system also has an important influence on the premium income and the payment payment of the automobile insurance to a certain extent. In recent years, China's traffic regulations have made important revisions to the rules on the punishment of traffic offences, and at the same time, the CIRC has reformed the management system of the vehicle insurance and the rate. The rate of car insurance starts to go to the stage of deepening reform. As one of the important property insurance products, the basis of the determination of the rate is to determine the final premium and the reward and punishment system to determine the adjustment coefficient of the reward and punishment system according to the risk record of the insured in the previous year. The premium is adjusted on the basis of the calculation of the basic premium. In this paper, based on the insurance data of the insurance company in recent years, using the Bayesian method to select the negative binomial model as the probability model of the reward and punishment system, the empirical analysis is carried out, and the premium calculation model considering the number of claims is established, and the optimal BMS is finally obtained. Furthermore, the Markov property of the reward and punishment system and the process of steady state, the situation of stable premium and the steady state premium are analyzed. When we get a steady-state premium, that's the case in which the insurance company's future income premium can be determined to some extent, and if we can know what the insurance company might pay for the future, There is a general pre-sentence and preparation for the financial stability of the insurance company. We use two logistic regression thinking, as well as the insured data of the insurance company, to select seven factors such as the driving age, age, sex and annual driving mileage of the insured, to establish the risk prediction model, and to forecast the risk of the insured by the model. And provides a method and a method for predicting the insurance premium for an insurance company. In June,2016, the reform of the vehicle insurance has spread all over the country. This paper establishes a corresponding Markov transition matrix for the system of reward and punishment, which is introduced before and after the reform of the country, and selects RSAL coefficient, coefficient of variation, ECL coefficient and so on to evaluate the system comprehensively. The reward and punishment system after the change is more severe, the BMS level is expanded, and the reward and punishment force is enhanced. In terms of the coefficient of variation, the new BMS is much more severe than the BMS, but the new BMS has a high level of invisibility for the newly-entered policy-holder. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to the reform of the car insurance rate and the improvement of the vehicle insurance and punishment system, so as to promote the healthy development of the automobile insurance market. The reform of the automobile insurance has been carried out to all parts of the country, but the explanation of the reform still needs to be paid attention to, the automobile insurance reform makes the risk classification increase, the insurance premium of the high-quality driver is reduced, the number of the drivers with more risk is increased, The hidden penalty for newly-entering drivers is also relatively improved, which is to better encourage the driver to develop good driving habits, to reduce risk accidents, rather than to exit the risk market for drivers with more risk of risk, resulting in greater hidden dangers. In addition, considering the model of the amount of compensation, better utilization of the driver's information, the refinement of the risk classification is still the future development direction, and the future research direction of this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F842.634

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